Börsipäev 27. veebruar

Investeerimine
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Baltic Morning News

Weakness in Tallinn continues. Tallinn stock exchange was down for the seventh day in a row yesterday. The index OMXT has now lost 6.6% from mid February. Tallinna Kaubamaja, Tallink and Merko have lost the most in the main list (-13.1%, -10.3% and -10.0%, respectively). At the same time, one of the most actively traded stocks, Olympic Casino, was actually up yesterday and the brewery Saku has gained 8.8% from mid February (thanks to extra dividend announcement). We still advise to remain cautious and wait for the sentiment to turn before rushing to the buy side.

Estonia’s budget surplus amounts to 3% of GDP. According to Finance Ministry, Estonia's general government surplus last year rose to 3.3% of GDP. The surplus totalled EUR 428m, up from EUR 262m in 2005 (2.3% of GDP). Given that risks concerning overheating and hard landing have been increasingly in focus, it is wise to have some back up for the worse times.

Estonia’s exports outgrew imports in December. According to Estonian Statistical Office, the total volume of Estonia’s foreign trade was EEK 23.3 billion in December, whereof EEK 10 billion (43%) was exports and EEK 13.3 billion (57%) was imports. In December, export volume increased by 18% y-o-y, while imports went up 17% y-o-y over the same time. The main export markets were Finland, Sweden and Russia, while most of the imports came from Finland, Germany and Russia.

RST (No Coverage) aims for Main list. BBN writes that the operator of a power grid in eastern Lithuania, RST, has applied to be listed on the Official List of the Vilnius Stock Exchange. According to Arvydas Zakalskis, CFO of the company, the main list would enhance investor confidence and attract large financial funds. Based on 9M/06 figures we estimate the share trades at a PER 2007 of above 70x, i.e. not interesting in our view.

Moody’s raises ratings. Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service announced the upgrade of Parex Banka’s rating to investment grade. Parex is the only private financial institution in the Baltic States to receive a long term deposit rating Baa3/investment grade. Also, Moody’s raised the long-term rating of DnB NOR Bank from Aa3 to Aaa.

We expect Baltika (Neutral) to report Q4/06 today.

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Hiina -9.2% täna. USA börs tuleb ilmselt kaasa.

Positiivseid ideid?:)
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putid
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GID peaks tervendavalt mõjuma.
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Tõsi, Hiina täna väga punane ning langus on suurim viimase 10 aasta jooksul! Põhjuseks see, et Hiina valitsus võib aktsiaturu jahutamiseks kohandada teatud meetmeid, kui Kongress sel nädalal kokku saab. Viimase eelneva 6 börsipäevaga oli Hiina Shenzen 300 indeks tõusnud 13%. Vaadates Euroopat täna, on sealgi indeksid protsendi jagu miinuses ja ka USA futuurid on negatiivsed. QQQQ hetkel -0,9%; SPY -0,5% ja IWM - 1,0%

Eraldi uudisena tuli täna veel teada asepresident Dick Cheney kohta, kes Afghanistanis elas üles sõjalähedase kogemuse:

Bloomberg.com reports that Vice President Dick Cheney was unhurt when Bagram air base in Afghanistan came under attack during his visit, U.S. military spokesman David Accetta said. At least 19 people were killed in the incident, Associated Press said. The attack occurred at the front gate to the base, the spokesman said. Cheney, who stayed at Bagram overnight, is ``fine,'' his spokeswoman Lea Anne McBride said. The Taliban said it was responsible for the assault, Sky News reported. Cheney stayed at the base after bad weather delayed his talks with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Cheney is visiting Afghanistan and Pakistan this week to press the countries to improve security along their border to prevent a resurgence of the Taliban and al-Qaeda
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Milline kaunis punane värv Traderis vaid QID kui kevadine sinilill sinetab!
Kas algas BÖRSIKRAHH!
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Talse kukkumine andis maailma börsidele signaali, et hukatus on käes :P
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Floor Talk: Oil

We are hearing that the strength in crude oil (61.90 +0.51) is being attributed to two things: 1) concerns that tomorrow's gasoline data will be very bullish for prices due to so many recent refinery issues in North America, and 2) word that terrorism was the cause of a Frenchman's death in Saudi Arabia.
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Panen siia ühe Sharki päeval avaldatud kommentaari, mis minu arust tabab naelapea pihta - sellistel languspäevadel/paanikamüügis on võimalik leida huvitavaid ja fundamentaalselt häid ettevõtteid investeerimisportfelli, mis võivad mõnikord müügihoos liialt pihta saada. Vähemasti tasuks silma peal hoida oma n-ö lemmikaktsiatel, mida on seni pisut liiga kalliks peetud... Meie lemmikud PRO all ja jälgimisnimekirjas olevad ettevõtted pole täna veel väga suure langusega hiilanud, aga mida allapoole tullakse, seda atraktiivsemaks pikaajalise investori jaoks fundamentaalselt tugev aktsia muutub.

If you are lucky enough to be sitting with a good chunk of idle cash, it probably isn't a bad time to take some small nibbles of thinner stocks with good fundamentals to support them. This sort of selling is highly inefficient, and there can be some very good bargains if you look in the right place. At a minimum, it's a good time to start building a watch list of stocks you want to buy on pullbacks.
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Tasub meeles pidada ka Euroopa turgude sulgemisnäite: FTSE -2.3%, CAC -3.0%, DAX -3.0%
Neist numbritest lähtudes ei oleks ka 2 kuni 2,5% miinuspäev päeva lõpuks suureks üllatuseks.
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Müügisurve on ostuga suhtes 40/1. Asi on.... halb
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VIX juba 13.95. Tänasega siis +25%
Nasdaq'i trend selgelt alla.
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kas keegi mäletab, millal oli nasdaq viimati päevaga 3% miinuses, eelmine mai?
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Arvan, et viimane allamüük võib päevasiseselt riskialtimatele pakkuda ka põrkevõimalust. Selliste suurte kukkumiste puhul töötab üpriski hästi (kuid mitte alati) 50 päeva - EMA, mis näiteks IWM-l on 79.37. Kuid ka sellele panustamise korral tasuks olla ettevaatlik...
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Ma ei arva, et siit tasuks põrget otsida, ega Sharki ülaltoodud kommentaari kombel "thinner stocks" ostmisega tegelda. Too early.
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Mina ei usu, et siin mingit põrget tekib. Kui turg viimase pooleteist tunniga veel alla liigub (mis on tõenäoline), tuleb homme veel raudselt miinust!
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"...võib päevasiseselt riskialtimatele pakkuda... "

There's never a perfect story - ja kohe kindlasti ei oleks sellist positsiooni võetud üle-öö hoidmiseks nagu mu lauseski üheselt kirjas oli. Ning ära ei tohi unustada tape'i...kui turg räägib teist keelt, võib küll mõtteid mõlgutada, kuid ei enamat...
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Müügisurve on ostuga suhtes juba 66/1. Vägisi kisub koledaks...
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Turg - 66 to 1 negative!!!

Ma arvan, et meil on kräsh käes!
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Kas kellelgi tuleb meelde millal turud nii palju ühe päevaga alla oleks tulnud ????? Ilmselt 10 aasta jooksul sellist pole nähtud, tänane kogemus jääb ma usun aastateks meelde. Tunda on kuidas raha põleb :(