Börsipäev 27. okt - Buffett @ farmaatsia

Investeerimine
1

Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

- Yukose (YUKOY) aktsiad kauplevad Venemaal 20% madalamal, kuna firma juht ning riigi rikkaim mees Mihhail Khodorkovsky on vahi alla võetud seoses süüdistustega alates pettustega erastamises ning lõpetades maksudest kõrvalehoidmisega. Khodorkovsky, kelle varasid hinnatakse suurusjärgus +10 miljardit dollarit on Venemaal tuntud Vladimir V. Putini vastaseid erakondi finantseeriva isikuna. Tundub, et praegune President püüab oma konkurentidele näidata "kus kapp seisab."

- Merrill Lynch tõstab täna hommikul Microni (MU) reitingu Osta peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Põhjuseks võimalik hinnatõus DRAM-i turul. Analüütikud toovad välja ka selle, et konkurent Infineon (IFX) on turust rohkem tõusnud aga Micron (MU) on samal ajal turule oluliselt alla jäänud. Merrill kinnitab oma Müü reitingut IFX jaoks.

- Veel tõstab Merrill Lynch Agere Systemsi (AGR.A) reitingut Osta peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Pisikese wireless play tulemused peaksid paranema ning võrreldes konkurentidega kaupleb firma 40% allpool konkurentide valuatsiooni. Hinnasihiks $4.25.

- Legendaarne investeerimisajakiri on teinud intervjuu veelgi legendaarsema investori Warren Buffettiga. Buffetti sõnul ei näe ta aktsiaturul midagi, mis oleks atraktiivsem valitsuse võlakirjadest või kõrge tootlusega võlakirjadest. Siiski Hr. Buffetti arvates: "Drugs are a better business in the aggregate than technology," due to higher returns on capital and greater product longevity, owing to patent protection." Lisaks sellele meeldib talle Wal-Mart (WMT), mis laieneb agressiivselt ja autokindlustuse müüjad nagu PGR ja MCY mis konkureerivad tema enda GEICO-ga.

- Veel mainitakse Barronsis positiivse külje pealt selliseid firmasid nagu JOUT, MOBI ning SGC.

- Tundub, et Adobe Systems (ADBE) tõstab oma 2004. aasta prognoose.

- Wachovia langetab võrguseadmete tootja Extreme Networksi (EXTR) reitingu Underperform peale varasema Market Perform pealt. Kuuldavasti pidi see firma oma Q3 kasuminumbrite täitmiseks töötajad septembris üheks nädalaks palgata puhkusele lubama. EXTR kaupleb 75x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta.

- Gary B. Smith

- RevShark:

Despite generally good reports, earnings season delivered some adversity for the bulls. Expectations were high and the market had made a substantial move, which when combined with some old-fashioned seasonality created an ideal environment for a sharp pullback. The mediocre earnings report from Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) was an excellent catalyst to trigger some selling.

We pulled back hard and, interestingly, the Nasdaq filled the Oct. 3 gap on the chart almost perfectly before bouncing very sharply and closing at the highs on Friday. The big question now is whether the correction is over and whether we can expect clear sailing into the end of the year. Has profit-taking run its course? Are the buyers going to be anxious to position themselves for the strongest season of the year?

A big merger in the banking sector and two big mergers in the health insurance sector are helping the tone of the early action. Goldman is saying nice things about eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) and there are a number of other upgrades and positive comments from analysts. Overseas markets are broadly higher. The dollar is trading up and bonds are trading down.

There is quite a bit of economic news on the schedule this week, the most important of which is the FOMC interest rate decision on Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. EST. We have quite a few earnings reports still to come as well. There are news catalysts that can reignite this market quickly.

We have a Monday morning gap up once again and the difficulties of last week are at least momentarily forgotten. Does this market do what it has done so many times during this six-month-long rally and move in a straight line back to new highs, or will we see more profit-taking and consolidation?

Technicians typically do not look for the market to reverse and go straight back up after a pullback like we had last week. V-shaped bounces are deemed to be the exception not the norm. The more logical course of events is some sort of battle between the bulls and bears before one side exerts itself and starts to dominate. This market has confounded technicians quite a bit in recent months with its lack of basing and consolidation action. We have a bunch of V-shaped bounces on the charts. Will it happen again?

The dip buyers and underinvested bulls seem to be the main reason for the persistent inclination to go straight back up after a dip. Too many folks have missed this rally or underperformed. When the market does pull back, even slightly, they tell themselves, "I'm not going to make that mistake again," and they aggressively buy as soon as the market starts to bounce.

A lot of folks have been looking for October weakness to set us up for a strong finish to the end of the year. It certainly seems too simple and easy to occur but that doesn't mean we won't see a pretty good try. Even if you are a contrarian, you can't be too quick to anticipate the failure of an end-of-the-year run. Frankly, I don't think the indices have seen their highs for the year yet. There are too many folks with buying power who want to chase this market higher.

So a gap up and lots of Monday morning optimism after a strong Friday bounce off of key technical support. Does it last or do we roll over again? I'm not betting against the bulls. We may pull back but watch for the dip buyers to be ready to throw cash at weakness.

Futuurid: Naz 0.35% SP 0.33%

sB

2
kunas seda pro versiooni saab siis vaatama hakata?
3
Bettie, mehe nimi algab minu meelest H tähega -Hodorkovski. Kust selline kirjapilt?
4
MSM, kasutasin kiiruga am. versiooni. copy/paste.

Keda veel huvitab:

MOSCOW, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A single compelling question hangs over Russian President Vladimir Putin after the arrest of oil magnate Mikhail Khodorkovsky: is he really in charge? As Khodorkovsky paced his cell in a Moscow jail on Monday, Putin declared unrepentantly that if a court had ordered the billionaire's arrest there had to have been justification. Acting to avert fears of potential investors, he said the move had no implications for privatisations of the 1990s. But analysts say Putin, behind a confident exterior, may be flying blind in the YUKOS affair, unable to assess the impact on investment and on Russia's always problematic image in the West. Most see the seizure of Khodorkovsky, Russia's richest man worth some $8 billion, as a reflection of a wider struggle for power between the Kremlin old guard and the "hawks". Many of the latter have roots in the security services and were brought in by the president, an ex-KGB agent, when he took power in 2000. These analysts say the hardliners have persuaded Putin to embark on a risky course, portraying Khodorkovsky as a threat to his authority in the run-up to parliamentary elections in December and a presidential poll in 2004. "It is now difficult for the president to rein in his dogs and stop everything because any kind of compromise with Khodorkovsky now would mean his personal defeat or an expression of weakness," said Lilya Shevtsova of the Moscow branch of the Carnegie Endowment think tank. Khodorkovsky, head of oil giant YukosSibneft, was arrested on Saturday, ending a lengthy confrontation with authorities dating from July when a YUKOS ally was detained on theft charges. Khodorkovsky has been charged with fraud and tax evasion and ordered held pending further investigation.

RISKY COURSE
On the surface, the move could seriously damage Putin's credentials as the guarantor of Russia's post-Soviet commitment to economic reform and a free market, and to the rule of law. In early October, speaking at a forum of top world business leaders where Khodorkovsky appeared too, Putin pledged to reform laws and regulations to encourage greater foreign investment. With Khodorkovsky's firm said to be involved in a multi-billion dollar deal with U.S. Exxon Mobil, Putin must consider the impact the affair could have on his close ties with the United States, Moscow's top foreign policy priority. Certainly, the suave, dapper 40-year-old Khodorkovsky has not gone out of his way to make friends with the Kremlin. Unlike other "oligarchs", he has refused to lower his public profile and, despite warning shots from the Kremlin, has been unambiguous about his political ambitions and maintained his support for the liberal opposition to Putin. Putin himself is all but certain to run for president in March next year.
Commentators say Khodorkovsky's fabulous wealth would make him a natural kingmaker in presidential elections in 2008 -- or even possibly, by then, a presidential contender.
The Kremlin could not fail but notice that YUKOS officials are widely represented on candidates lists across the political spectrum for election to parliament next December.

BATTLE FOR POWER
Analysts say the YUKOS chief presented an easy target -- having few real friends among the two major clans battling for influence over Putin, unlike, for instance, fellow oligarch and owner of London's Chelsea football club Roman Abramovich. Business daily Kommersant referred to a battle for power by top Putin aides -- most unknown outside Russia -- pitting the old guard represented by chief of staff Alexander Voloshin against hawkish officials linked to the security agencies. Stanislav Belovsky, director of Council for National Strategy think-tank, said Khodorkovsky believed mistakenly that his massive wealth and status could protect him. "He placed a lot of faith firstly in the business circles of Russia and secondly on the Republican elite of the United States. But...the U.S. is more interested in the stability of Putin's regime and Russian business will fight for him formally but they will not use their full powers to free him," he said. Shevtsova felt Khodorkovsky would finally be pressured into selling up his business interests. But she said Putin was charting unknown political waters. "I do not believe he anticipates all the consequences and ramifications of this." Although the affair has sparked an outcry among businessmen, it could prove popular with voters, most of whom lost out in the 1990s when the "oligarchs" made fortunes in privatisation deals. "I'm a pensioner, so by default I can't be on Khodorkovsky's side. He is a thief," said Zoya, in her 70s. "They've plundered everything. I support the state. I trust Putin."
5
Yanek, selle nädala jooksul paneme Pro neile peale, kes olid Noore Pensionäri tabeli 30 esimese hulgas. Kuna tabelis on ka LHV töötajad, siis Prod saavad kuuks ajaks tasuta kuni kohani 38. olnud, Hardo Lilleväli kaasa arvatud.
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tough luck, 2 kohta jäi mul siis puudu: parim portu oli 41. aga üks kristjani portu oli ka just enne mind :)
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Rene,

Sry, aga tagantjargi (auhinna)reeglite muutmine on jama.
8
hmm, mis reeglit muutsime?
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Sorry, Rene, minu kala:(
Ei olnud enne eelmist postitust aega reegleid vaadata, aga auhindadega on toesti asi reegliteparane.
Minuvanused mehed ei saa enam 100%-liselt oma malu usaldada:)

Teinekord nii ei tee.
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:)
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Näed, eile sai väike viga tehtud ja Pro saavad kuuks ajaks tasuta inimesed kuni 41. kohani ehk Ahti Tomingas on viimane, kes saab tasuta Pro.
Võitjatega võetakse peagi ühendust.
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Ja ma juba arvasin, et läheb nii nagu alati! Murphi järgi olen reeglina esimene, kes välja jääb. Aktsiatega sama lugu, paned orderi välja, ikka jääb paar senti puudu. Tänud LHV, näeme ära, mis loom see PRO on.
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Ega ta mingi imeloom polegi, pigem selline mitte kõige tihemini nähtav mehhikovioletnerõngassabakonnkoer.
;P