Eesti aja järgi täna kell 17.00 teatatakse USA detsembrikuu uute eluasemete annualiseeritud müüginumbrid - ootused püsivad 368 000 juures, mis oleks parem novembris nähtud 355 000st. Kolmapäevale traditsiooniliselt avaldatakse kell 17.30 naftavarude raport.
Kell 21.15 tuleb Föderaalreservi intressimäära otsus. Selge on see, et intressimäärad jäävad jätkuvalt oma ajaloolistele põhjadele, kuid just muudatused sõnastuses on see, mida ollakse varmad tähele panema. Kui Föderaalreserv peaks indikeerima mingigi vihjega tulevastele võimalikele rahapoliitika karmistamistele, oleks see aktsiaturgudele negatiivne. Ülimadalate intressimäärade pikaajalisuse kinnitamine oleks see-eest positiivne.
Tänase päeva eelturu tähtsaim tulemuste teataja on kindlasti Caterpillar (CAT).
Korduva maailmalõpu kuulutajana tuntuks saanud Roubini on sedapuhku ette võtnud euro-rahaliidu ning ütleb, et tema arvates ei ole riskid kogu rahaliidu lõhki minemiseks olnud kunagi nii suured kui praegu. Lisaks Kreekale näeb eurotsooni stabiilsuse püsimisele väga suurt ohtu Hispaanialt. Link artiklile siin.
Caterpillarilt tulid küll korralikud numbrid (eelkõige just kasumireal), kuid juhtkonna poolt antud prognoos 2010. aastaks on tagasihoidlik ja seetõttu ka aktsia eelturul punases.
Caterpillar prelim $0.41 vs $0.28 First Call consensus; revs $7.9 bln vs $8.11 bln First Call consensus Co issues mixed guidance for FY10, sees EPS to be 'about 2.50 at the midpoint of sales and revenue range' vs. $2.71 consensus; sees FY10 revs up 10-25% y/y (~35.6- 40.4 bln) vs. $36.06 bln consensus.
Tulemustetabel (link siin) nüüd eelturul numbrid teatanud ettevõtetega uuendatud. Kasumireal jätkatakse tugevalt ootuste ületamist, kuid aktsiaturgude viimaste päevade liikumised on pullid ära hirmutanud.
USA turud alustavad päeva eilsete sulgumistasemete juurest.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX-0.40% Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.66% Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.68% Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.88% Rootsi OMX 30 +1.02% Venemaa MICEX +1.40% Poola WIG +0.09%
Aasia turud: Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.71% Hongkongi Hang Seng -0.38% Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.09% Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.10% Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq-1.08% Tai Set 50 -1.62% India Sensex 30 -2.92%
Obama esitab täna esimese state-of-the-union kõne, kus räägib oma agendast ja prioriteetidest. Obama esimese aastaga turg võimsalt rallinud & olukord finantssektoris rahunenud, kuid Main Street toetab presidenti üha vähem (graafiku link siin):
Respect the Downtrend By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 1/27/2010 8:57 AM EST
I don't set trends. I just find out what they are and exploit them. -- Dick Clark
A large number of news events taking place today may affect market direction, but you really only need to know one thing -- we are trending down. For the first time in quite a while, the character of the market has shifted and the bears are gaining the upper hand.
After ugly action last week we attempted to bounce on Monday and Tuesday. While we had some green on the screens, the buyers never really mounted a very good attack. We had good earnings news from Apple (AAPL) and a number of other companies, but the dip-buyers who were aggressive so often last year haven't shown much interest in jumping in on this pullback.
We have a slew of news events taking place today, including several earnings reports, the FOMC interest rate decision, Tim Geithner's testimony on Capitol Hill, President Obama's State of the Union address, various economic reports and the introduction of Apple's new tablet. Any of these can push the market around, but we need to proceed carefully until buyers exhibit more of an appetite for stocks.
Identifying and trading with the trend is the single most important factor in determining whether you make money in the market. While good stock-picking is always important, the vast major of stocks move along with the overall market. If you are fighting the trend, you are very likely to lose money.
There are basically two different styles of trading. One style is to constantly look for and try to anticipate market turns; the other style is to follow the trend. Which works best is very subjective and depends on your emotional makeup and personality. For example, Doug Kass prefers to look for turning points, while Jim Cramer does a very good job of sticking with trends. Neither approach is inherently better than the other -- what is "best" depends on the individual.
I tend to be a trend-follower, especially in a downtrending market. When the market is acting poorly, I work extra hard to protect my capital and will not be too quick in looking for a turning point. The most important priority for all traders should be to protect your capital, and one of the easiest ways to run into trouble is to keep anticipating a market turn when we are downtrending.
What hurts so many investors in major downtrends is that they hold on to positions because they keep thinking and hoping that the market is going to reverse at any moment. It's very easy to be frozen into inaction and to keep anticipating a market turn. At least when you are trying to catch a turn in an uptrending market, the main risk you suffer is that you will be underinvested and miss out on gains rather than suffer actual losses.
The point here is that this market is acting poorly, and it is starting to trend lower. It may regain its footing and turn back up like it did so often last year, but if is very risky to count on that. If you're going to look for market turns, you have to make sure you take steps to control your risk in case you are wrong.
This has been the worst action we have had in a while, and this market has become quite extended after the big move off the March lows. There are clear signs that the character of the action has shifted and that we are trending to the downside. All the news that is due out might bounce us around a bit, but keep an eye on the overall trend. As the old saying goes. "The trend is your friend" -- if you are in tune with it, your chances of success are much higher. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: KTCC +32.9%, SIFY +19.9%, MNI +16.9%, SANM +15.4%, CCUR +6.7%, ROK +6.2%, CSGS +5.9%, ALTR +5.7%, TEL +5.6%, GILD +5.3%, DV +5.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), MTH +4.8%, DKS +4.5%, ALNC +3.5%, AAI +3.3%, YHOO +2.9%, ATI +2.2%... Other news: CPE +15.8% (receives $44.7 mln reimbursement from the minerals management service), PMTC +8.1% (announces that Volvo Group has signed an agreement moving PTC from a directional decision to a firm strategic decision to use Windchill, PTC's PLM software), BRK.B +7.4% (will replace Burlington Northern Santa Fe in the S&P 100 and S&P 500 indices), KT +7.3% (still checking), F +2.8% (moving higher following TM recall), BUD +2.6% (names Bob Golden as global head of mergers and acquisitions - WSJ.com), BG +2.1% (Bunge to sell Brazilian fertilizer nutrients assets to Vale for $3.8 bln in cash ), SI +1.6% (still checking), BTI +1.4% (hires WIT to help the company improve the effectiveness and efficiency of application support services for its global business operations)... Analyst comments: MOLX +5.2% (upgraded to Buy at Ticonderoga Securities), HGSI +2.5% (RBC initiates with an Outperform and sets a $38 tgt), AKS +2.0% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman), POT +1.6% (resumed with Buy at BofA/Merrill), WTNY +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Wunderlich), BHI +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Calyon), AMZN +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Kaufman).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TSFG -15.9%, ZAGG -10.9%, BUSE -10.9% (light volume), PLCM -6.9%, USG -5.4%, BBVA -5.1%, RFMD -4.7%, CX -4.0% (light volume), ITW -3.1%, TPX -2.5%, CAT -1.5%, ABT -1.5%... Select financials showing weakness: RBS -5.3%, IBN -4.4%, STD -2.8% (trading ex dividend), IRE -2.3%, ... Select overseas car makers under pressure following TM news: TTM -3.8%, TM -3.2% (halts sales over safety issue - WSJ), HMC -1.5%... Other news: JTX -14.8% (does not expect to have a contractual commitment covering more than approximately 50% of its RAL program for the 2010 tax season), TRE -3.7% (announces Jinchuan Mining to participate in the exploration and development of the Company's Kabanga nickel properties), BIIB -3.0% (light volume; Facet Biotech discloses amendment to Biogen agreement), FSIN -2.4% (prices 6.5 mln share follow-on offering at $8.00/share), HTWR -1.9% (announced public offering of 1,500,000 shares of its common stock)... Analyst comments: HE -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), X -1.0% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup and downgraded to Neutral at Goldman).
Tehnoloogiasektori tähelepanu on täna õhtul Apple'il, kes esitleb kl 20:00 uut toodet, milleks ilmselt tablet-arvuti (loe pikemalt siit). Siin kaks linki, kus saab üritust reaalajas jälgida: inglise kl siin & eesti keeles siin.
Amazoni aktsiat peab jälgima ka Apple'i toote tutvustamise ajal, kuna see hakkab konkureerima hetkel enimtuntud tablet-arvutiga Kindle, mida valmistab Amazon (Kindle küll põhiliselt lugemiseks mõeldud & Apple'ilt oodatakse mitmekülgsemat toodet).
20. jaanuari börsipäevas (link siin) kirjutasin, et Berkshire Hathaway B-aktsiad (BRK-B) võivad teha 1:50 tagurpidi spliti ning liituda S&P500 indeksiga. Tollal kauplesid B-aktsiad splitiga läbikorrigeerituna ca $67 juures. S&P500 indeksiga liitumise teade tuli eile õhtul ning selle peale on B-aktsiad ka täna üle 6% plussis ning jõudnud juba $72ni. Tõusu taga siis põhjus, et S&P500 indeksi liikumist jälgivad fondid või benchmarkina kasutavad investorid on nii-öelda sundviskes aktsia ostmise osas.
Toornafta varud tegid läbi üllatusliku kukkumise, mootorkütuse varud seevastu kasvasid oodatust rohkem ning distillaatide varude oodatud vähenemine jäi tulemata.
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 3888K (consensus is a build of 1500K); gasoline inventories had a build of 1985K (consensus is a build of 900K); distillate inventories had a build of 358K (consensus is a draw of 1800K).
Davos 2010: Chinese central banker Zhu Min warns of new Asian crisis-- Daily Telegraph but could also generate currency moves similar to those during the Asian crisis of over a decade ago. "Capital flows - it's a real risk this year for the economy," Zhu Min told participants at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos. Mr Zhu noted that investors are increasingly borrowing the cheap US dollar, and investing the borrowed funds in emerging markets, where interest rates are higher, and therefore generating a better return than saving in the dollars. This phenomenon called carry trade in the US dollar is a "massive issue today," said Mr Zhu. "It's bigger than the Japanese yen carry trade 12 years ago," he said. However, if the United States were to tighten its lax monetary policy, making borrowing more costly, funds could then flow out just as suddenly from emerging markets, back into the US market. This could cause a collapse in emerging markets' currencies, and spark a repeat of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.
