-Majandusnäitajate vallast avaldati täna tarbijakulutuste ja sissetulekute näitajad. Veebruaris kasvas sissetulek 0.4%, tarbimine kasvas 0.2%. Numbrid olid oodatust veidi madalamad ning futuurid reageerisid väikese tagasilangusega.
-Merill Lynch lisas konglomeraadi General Electric (GE) aktsia oma vaatlusnimekirja. Aktsia on eelturul protsendiga plussis. Positiivseid kommentaare sai kuulda ka Cisco Systems (CSCO).
-Kui tavapäraselt on ühinemiste ja ülevõtmiste päevaks esmaspäev, siis sellel nädalal on uudisterohkeks kujunenud reede. InfoSpace (INSP) ostab ärab firmaotsingute teenust pakkuva Switshboardi, pakkudes 28% preemiat võrrelduna eilse sulgemishinnaga. tehingu väärtus on 160 miljonit dollarit.
-Yahoo (YHOO) teatas konkureeriva lehekülje ostmisest Euroopas. Kelkoo eest maksatakse 574 miljonit dollarit.
-USA suuruselt teine supermarketite grupp Albertson`s (ABS) on ostmas 2.5 miljardi eest J Sainsburylt viimase USA supermarketite üksust.
-E-Trade (ET) on eelturul 4.7% plussis, firma lisatakse S&P 500 indeksisse (varem sinna kuulunud Fleet Boston Financial osteti ära Bank of America poolt).
Rev Shark:
We seldom regret the things we have done; it is the things that we haven't done that haunt and torment us. On a day like yesterday when the market makes a dramatic turn and produces its largest gain in more than nine months, we tend to kick ourselves for not being fully invested -- and on margin to boot. We tell ourselves we should have seen this coming and we are idiots for not anticipating the strength.
The unspoken premise of our regrets is that the best way to make money in the market is to catch the big dramatic moves. The buy-and-hold approach to investing is often supported by studies that proclaim that if you miss the 10 best-performing days of the indices you are doomed to suffer lousy returns. What these studies fail to address is how you would fare if you missed the 10 worst-performing days or market corrections like the one we have experienced over the past couple months.
We are quick to regret the opportunities we missed, but fast to forget the pain we have avoided. Yesterday's huge move merely took the market back to where it was last Friday. If you went to cash last week or even earlier you are still ahead of the folks who rode this market down and were fully invested when the turn came yesterday. In fact, I'll bet that the folks who had high levels of cash to start the day yesterday are outperforming their more fully invested friends.
For some the market is all about precise timing and catching reversal days but for many others, including me, the road to success comes primarily from catching the bulk of bigger trends. Over the years I have always tended to be holding fairly high levels of cash at turning points. At both highs and lows I am on the sidelines to a great extend. Once a trend shows some signs of persisting I become more fully invested rather quickly.
Days like yesterday tend to have an emotional impact disproportionate to their actual importance. The bulls who have been wrestling with a downtrending market for 10 weeks feel a surge of relief as it becomes clear that there still are folks out there who are interested in buying stocks. Yesterday's frenzy to climb onboard helps erode all of the fears and concerns that have been building. Optimism is restored and the bulls start to contemplate the eventual recovery to new highs.
The truth is that big days like yesterday do not typically mark bottoms. As Investors Business Daily noted this morning, "By themselves, big single-day session gains carry little value." Nine out of 10 of the biggest gains in the Nasdaq since its inception came during the bear market of 2000-2002. The 10th day, which was the biggest point gain ever, came the day after the crash in 1987.
Big point gains are a good start to turning sentiment but they do not mark a trend change. Yesterday's move is even more suspect because it came on just average volume. The big money institutions weren't piling in with reckless abandon. Much of the action was simple dead-cat bounces in badly maligned stocks.
A trend change will be confirmed when we see follow-through on increased volume. We need to hold on to the bulk of yesterday's gains and then build on them with increased intensity. That will be the signal to be aggressively long.
With a very important employment report due next week and the kick of earnings reports in April we have potential catalysts to move this market higher. I'll be looking to add to my long positions in the days ahead as opportunities and favorable charts arise. A trend change is brewing but we have further to go.
In the early going today we have a positive bias. Japan was up strongly overnight but Europe is mixed so far this morning. The economic calendar is fairly quiet and there isn't too much news on the wire.
The key today will be for the bulls not to give back too much. If they hold on to a good-sized chunk of yesterday's move they will be in good shape for next week.
Gary B. Smith:
