Gary B. Smith:

Gary B. Smith:

Rev Shark:
You Can Dismiss Bears, but Charts Don't Lie
8/26/2005 9:00 AM EDT
"'Don't you worry, and don't you hurry.' I know that phrase by heart, and if all other music should perish out of the world it would still sing to me."
-- Mark Twain
If you take a moment to think about it, it is always possible to find some good reasons to worry about the stock market. The concerns will vary over time but there always is something to cast a shadow over our expectations about how bright the future may be.
At the moment there is an unusually large number of significant concerns. These problems, along with stumbling technical patterns, are a good reason for us to be more cautious than usual.
The foremost concern for this market right now is inflationary pressure. The most prominent are crude oil, which is within a tick or two of new highs, and a slowing consumer. The FOMC has clearly signaled that it is going to remain hawkish and continue fighting inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. In a strong economy, that is not likely to have a lot of negative implications but this is a fragile economy, and recent economic statistics haven't impressed.
There are also finally some signs that the housing market is cooling a bit and that the consumer is beginning to be a bit more cautious. Housing prices don't even need to fall to have a chilling effect on consumers. A plateau in prices or even a slowing in price increases will likely have some effect on the mood of folks who are used to seeing their home equity produce a steadily growing savings cushion.
I could go on for quite a while about all of the things that should concern us about the market right now but you probably can develop your own list without much problem.
The reason I'm focusing on worries and concerns today is that we have a technical pattern that suggests they may be of real concern. When the charts look like they do, we can't readily dismiss the perma-bear arguments like we would in a better market. There are signs that the problems they cite are starting to have an effect on this market.
Our job is not to dwell on all of the worries and troubles, but to make sure we keep our capital safe until things look better. We need not worry and we need not hurry. Stand aside and let these troubles play out. If you are a trader then do your thing, but if your time frame is longer than a day or so, it's a good time to take care of all of the paperwork that has been piling up on your desk.
We have a fairly stable start to the day. Crude oil is steady, gold is inching up and overseas markets were slightly higher. The news flow is slow and it is likely to be a very quite summer Friday
Gary B. Smith avaldas reedel oma arvamust drugstore.com (DSCM) kohta.

26/08/05 17:14 postituses toodud Crameri nooled EK suunas on täna G. B. Smith poolt järje saanud, aktsia vahepeal ka allapoole libisenud juba natuke ...
