Hommiku sissejuhatuseks panen üles eile avaldatud Moodyse reitingulangetuse Morgan Stanley CDO-dele
Morgan Stanley: Moody’s takes action on Morgan Stanley Managed ACES SPC AB SCDO 2007-13
Moody’s Investors Service announced today that it has downgraded its rating of the following notes issued by Morgan Stanley Managed ACES SPC AB SCDO 2007-13: Class Description: U.S. $240,000,000 Class I SrA Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2017 Prior Rating: Aa2 Prior Rating Date: 9/18/2008 Current Rating: A1 Moody’s explained that the transaction, a synthetic CDO, has exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ambac, and MBIA in its portfolio of reference obligations. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code on September 15, 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into the conservatorship of the U.S. Government on September 8, 2008, and Ambac and MBIA, had their Moody’s ratings placed on review for possible downgrade on September 18, 2008.
Börss - kas see viitab langusele või tõusule :)
Tänan tähelepanu eest, kirjaviga korrigeeritud.
Koos finantsinstitutsioonidega General Motors (GM) ja General Electric (GE), ei ole võimalik enam shortida ka neid finantsasutusi!!!!
IBM (IBM)
Medco Health (MHS)
and CVS Caremark (CVS)
"IBM has a global financing business that includes leasing and purchasing, and also has a financial management consulting business as well."
IBM (IBM)
Medco Health (MHS)
and CVS Caremark (CVS)
"IBM has a global financing business that includes leasing and purchasing, and also has a financial management consulting business as well."
Fre ja Fnm indikeerivad hetkel avanemist juba pealpool $2 taset. WaMu jätkab läbirääkimisi võimalike ostukandidaatidega, mis peaks eile küllaltki alla müüdud aktsia hinda toetama:
Troubled mortgage lender Washington Mutual has approached several private-equity firms about a potential takeover, according to a published report Thursday. Carlyle Group LLC, and Blackstone Group LP are among the firms considering a deal, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources. Interest among banks considering a deal for Washington Mutual, including J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, has diminished in recent days over reluctance to absorb problem loans on Washington Mutual's books, according to the report.
WM sulgus eile $2.26 tasemel, üle -20% languses.
Troubled mortgage lender Washington Mutual has approached several private-equity firms about a potential takeover, according to a published report Thursday. Carlyle Group LLC, and Blackstone Group LP are among the firms considering a deal, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources. Interest among banks considering a deal for Washington Mutual, including J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, has diminished in recent days over reluctance to absorb problem loans on Washington Mutual's books, according to the report.
WM sulgus eile $2.26 tasemel, üle -20% languses.
General Electrics langetas 3Q ja selle aasta kasumiprognoose. Põhjus: kehv seis finantsturgudel. GE kinnitas oma eesmärki hoida AAA krediidireitingut. CNBC:
The Fairfield, Conn.-based diversified conglomerate now expects to report third-quarter profit of 43 cents to 48 cents per share, down from prior guidance of 50 cents to 54 cents per share. For the full year, profit is now forecast between $1.95 and $2.10 per share, instead of $2.20 to $2.30 per share.
GE pressiteatest:
"GE now expects that its financial services businesses will earn approximately $2 billion in the third quarter, which, while impacted by current market conditions, is expected to exceed the earnings of any financial services company."
General Electric peaks ise Wall Streetile kolima.
AAA reitinguga ettevõtteid on peale GE veel viis: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Exxon (XOM), Toyota (TM), Automatic Data Processing (ADP) ja Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). Ühtlasi on GE ainuke, mis on 1960. aastast alates suutnud AAA-d säilitada.
Kui 1979. aastal oli kõrgeima krediidireitinguga ettevõtteid 60, siis 1992. aastaks oli number langenud 21-ni ning tänaseks on alles jäänud 6. Põhjuseks enamasti võlataseme kasv.
Kui 1979. aastal oli kõrgeima krediidireitinguga ettevõtteid 60, siis 1992. aastaks oli number langenud 21-ni ning tänaseks on alles jäänud 6. Põhjuseks enamasti võlataseme kasv.
TED Spread widens to record 317 basis points.
Pankadevaheline usaldus on taas kadunud ning hirm kriisi ees süvenemas.
Või tuleb LIBORI tõus hoopis sellest, et WSJ kirjutas hiljuti, kuidas LIBORiga jälle manipuleeritakse. Mingil hetkel oli LIBOR madalam, kui Fedi pakutav määr. See läks aga loogikaga vastuollu, kuna pangad ei küsi üksteise käest tagatist, mis peaks tähendama riskantsemat laenu ehk kõrgemat LIBORit.
Kindlasti on põhjuseid mitu, kuid et LIBOR just teisipäeval järsult tõusma hakkas, on muidugi huvitav.
Pankadevaheline usaldus on taas kadunud ning hirm kriisi ees süvenemas.
Või tuleb LIBORI tõus hoopis sellest, et WSJ kirjutas hiljuti, kuidas LIBORiga jälle manipuleeritakse. Mingil hetkel oli LIBOR madalam, kui Fedi pakutav määr. See läks aga loogikaga vastuollu, kuna pangad ei küsi üksteise käest tagatist, mis peaks tähendama riskantsemat laenu ehk kõrgemat LIBORit.
Kindlasti on põhjuseid mitu, kuid et LIBOR just teisipäeval järsult tõusma hakkas, on muidugi huvitav.
Seeking Alpha on TED Spreadi statistika kohta andnud sellise kommentaari: "..S&P 500's performance following extreme readings are mixed. In three out of four of the period where the TED spread spiked, the market was higher three months later. However, the one time it had a negative return was in 1987 when the market crashed."
Ma ei teagi, kas võtta seda üsna random statistikana või on seal taga loogika, et kui hirm kõige suurem, siis turg kõige madalamal...
Representative Kanjorski says "votes are there" in House and Senate for bill passage - CNBC
(WM) Washington Mutual: Federal regulators are moving quickly to broker a deal for Washington Mutual - NY Times
hmm, initial claims ja durable orders kehvad, kuid turu jaoks nonevent? everybody is looking Kill Bill 3?
...ei tahaks uskuda, et nõrgad initial claims ja durable orders nüüd mingi üllatus olid. Aga jah, we have to find Bill. And then...wea are going to kill...kill Bill!
Bill is hide behind bush. :)
Henno,
Initial Claimsist ca 50 000 võib panna orkaan Ike arvele... Seega võrreldes eelmiste nädalatega nüüd nii hirmuäratavalt nõrk number see ei ole. Aga tugev ka mitte.
Initial Claimsist ca 50 000 võib panna orkaan Ike arvele... Seega võrreldes eelmiste nädalatega nüüd nii hirmuäratavalt nõrk number see ei ole. Aga tugev ka mitte.
Saksamaa DAX +1.33%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.61%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.32%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +2.09%
Venemaa MICEX -1.75%
Poola WIG +1.28%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.90%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.15%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.64%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.37%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.50%
Tai Set 50 +0.25%
India Sensex -1.06%
In a Holding Pattern
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/25/2008 8:41 AM EDT
The chief cause of problems is solutions.
-- Eric Sevareid
As the debate over the form of the massive bailout package continues, the market is trapped in limbo. The indecision over a plan will abate in the next few days, and we will probably see some sort of relief rally as a result, but then we will have to sort out all the other issues that this solution will produce.
The whole problem with the idea that a bailout is going to drive the market higher is that we still are in the process of trying to figure out what the cost of this whole fiasco is going to be. Are housing prices going to finally find a bottom? Are mortgage securities going to be priced accurately? How much fallout will we see in the broader economy, and are earnings estimates going to fall (as The Wall Street Journal discussed this morning)?
There is no question that we have a slew of issues to contend with as this bailout plan is finalized, and that is probably going to keep the market action very rocky. Confidence has been badly shaken, and a bailout plan is not going to do a whole lot to bring investors back into this market.
Longer-term investors are just going to have to stay patient and resist the blandishments that it's time to buy. There was a fellow on CNBC this morning who has been holding GE (GE) for the last 12 years, and he was suggesting that now is the time to buy. That is pretty typical of the sort of advice you'll get from traditional Wall Street. They aren't interested in making you money. They are just interested in making sure you stay in the stock market.
Shorter term, we have to be looking for some sort of relief bounce to kick in soon. We have given back a very big chunk of the euphoric two-day move off the announcements of the bailout and short restrictions. There is some minor support nearby, and given the degree of negativity and the likelihood of some positive news about a bailout plan, we look ready for some upside.
Unfortunately, any bounce within a nasty downtrend like we have now is going to attract sellers and shorts. It is going to take an awfully lot of work to turn the primary trend in this market, and that is very unlikely to happen in this news environment.
So that means we stay short term, look to play some quick bounces, maybe put on some shorts into strength and avoid the temptation to put money in long-term holds. If you can navigate this market with a plan like that, you'll be in good shape no matter what happens.
We have a strong open shaping up as optimism grows over a bailout plan. As I said, the mood was sour enough and we are technically oversold enough that a relief bounce is due. I don't think it's going to go too far, but the buyers are hungry to do something, and they may push it a bit.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NKE +4.8%, MKC +1.4%... Select financial related stocks showing strength: FNM +37.4%, FRE +27.0%, WM +17.3% (explores being bought by a private-equity player - WSJ), ABK +15.9%, AIG +11.8%, WB +5.3%, UBS +5.1%... Select airlines ticking higher with crude lower: DAL +5.7% (initiated with Buy at Stifel), LCC +5.3%, AMR +4.6% and UAUA +4.3% (initiated with Buy at Stifel)... Other news: TOPS +39.1% (announces short-term exclusivity agreement), PCOP +33.6% (Ligand to acquire Pharmacopeia for stock and contingent value rights of up to $70 mln), TMTA +24.0% (initiates process to seek sale of the company; also announces two agreements with Intel; to receive one-time payment of $91.5 mln), BSX +7.0% (announces FDA approval to market its TAXUS Express2 Atom Paclitaxel-Eluting Coronary Stent System), CSUN +5.8% (enters into sales agreement with Wuxi Guofei Green Energy Source), BZH +4.1% (announces SEC settlement; cease and desist order, no fine to be paid), SEPR +3.5% (new data show efficacy and safety of eslicarbazepine acetate in the treatment of epilepsy), SMS +2.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: BIIB +2.8% (upgraded to Buy at Lazard Capital).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FIF -6.5% (light volume), GE -5.1%, RHT -4.5%, RAD -4.2%... Select food processing cos trading lower following PPC announcing that it notified lenders that it expects to report a significant loss in Q408: SFD -11.3%, TSN -9.2%, SAFM -5.7%... Other news: COF -7.6% (prices a 14 mln share common stock offering at $49/share).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/25/2008 8:41 AM EDT
The chief cause of problems is solutions.
-- Eric Sevareid
As the debate over the form of the massive bailout package continues, the market is trapped in limbo. The indecision over a plan will abate in the next few days, and we will probably see some sort of relief rally as a result, but then we will have to sort out all the other issues that this solution will produce.
The whole problem with the idea that a bailout is going to drive the market higher is that we still are in the process of trying to figure out what the cost of this whole fiasco is going to be. Are housing prices going to finally find a bottom? Are mortgage securities going to be priced accurately? How much fallout will we see in the broader economy, and are earnings estimates going to fall (as The Wall Street Journal discussed this morning)?
There is no question that we have a slew of issues to contend with as this bailout plan is finalized, and that is probably going to keep the market action very rocky. Confidence has been badly shaken, and a bailout plan is not going to do a whole lot to bring investors back into this market.
Longer-term investors are just going to have to stay patient and resist the blandishments that it's time to buy. There was a fellow on CNBC this morning who has been holding GE (GE) for the last 12 years, and he was suggesting that now is the time to buy. That is pretty typical of the sort of advice you'll get from traditional Wall Street. They aren't interested in making you money. They are just interested in making sure you stay in the stock market.
Shorter term, we have to be looking for some sort of relief bounce to kick in soon. We have given back a very big chunk of the euphoric two-day move off the announcements of the bailout and short restrictions. There is some minor support nearby, and given the degree of negativity and the likelihood of some positive news about a bailout plan, we look ready for some upside.
Unfortunately, any bounce within a nasty downtrend like we have now is going to attract sellers and shorts. It is going to take an awfully lot of work to turn the primary trend in this market, and that is very unlikely to happen in this news environment.
So that means we stay short term, look to play some quick bounces, maybe put on some shorts into strength and avoid the temptation to put money in long-term holds. If you can navigate this market with a plan like that, you'll be in good shape no matter what happens.
We have a strong open shaping up as optimism grows over a bailout plan. As I said, the mood was sour enough and we are technically oversold enough that a relief bounce is due. I don't think it's going to go too far, but the buyers are hungry to do something, and they may push it a bit.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NKE +4.8%, MKC +1.4%... Select financial related stocks showing strength: FNM +37.4%, FRE +27.0%, WM +17.3% (explores being bought by a private-equity player - WSJ), ABK +15.9%, AIG +11.8%, WB +5.3%, UBS +5.1%... Select airlines ticking higher with crude lower: DAL +5.7% (initiated with Buy at Stifel), LCC +5.3%, AMR +4.6% and UAUA +4.3% (initiated with Buy at Stifel)... Other news: TOPS +39.1% (announces short-term exclusivity agreement), PCOP +33.6% (Ligand to acquire Pharmacopeia for stock and contingent value rights of up to $70 mln), TMTA +24.0% (initiates process to seek sale of the company; also announces two agreements with Intel; to receive one-time payment of $91.5 mln), BSX +7.0% (announces FDA approval to market its TAXUS Express2 Atom Paclitaxel-Eluting Coronary Stent System), CSUN +5.8% (enters into sales agreement with Wuxi Guofei Green Energy Source), BZH +4.1% (announces SEC settlement; cease and desist order, no fine to be paid), SEPR +3.5% (new data show efficacy and safety of eslicarbazepine acetate in the treatment of epilepsy), SMS +2.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: BIIB +2.8% (upgraded to Buy at Lazard Capital).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FIF -6.5% (light volume), GE -5.1%, RHT -4.5%, RAD -4.2%... Select food processing cos trading lower following PPC announcing that it notified lenders that it expects to report a significant loss in Q408: SFD -11.3%, TSN -9.2%, SAFM -5.7%... Other news: COF -7.6% (prices a 14 mln share common stock offering at $49/share).
House Dem. Leader Hoyer says bailout package possible in near-term, "maybe today" - Reuters