angelike Re: Börsipäev 24. mai 24/05/10 14:19
Euroopas müügisurve, uus murelaps Euroopas siis Hispaania, ega Portugalis midagi ilusat pole.
Analüüsides tuleviku olukorda, pole siin midagi höisata. Kahjuks
Kust Su analüüsi lugeda saaks?
http://www.finviz.com/map.ashx
No see küll hetkel igaljuhul reaalajas ei ole, alles pärast usa turu avamist.
No see küll hetkel igaljuhul reaalajas ei ole, alles pärast usa turu avamist.
Kui Euroopa indeksid veetsid suurema osa päevast miinuspoolel ja sarnaselt Euroopale olid ka USA futuurid miinuses, siis viimaste minutite jooksul on miinust jõuliselt vähendatud ning USA indeksite futuurid jõudmas reedeste sulgumistasemete juurde. Liikumised valuutaturul on aga sellest hoolimata väga suured - euro täna dollari vastu kaotanud 1.6% oma väärtusest.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.96%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.46%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0.45%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.05%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.43%
Venemaa MICEX -1.20%
Poola WIG +0.40%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.27%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.62%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.48%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +4.13%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.98%
Tai Set 50 -3.13%
India Sensex 30 +0.15%
Don't Expect Endless Upside
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/24/2010 8:11 AM EDT
The winds and waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators.
-- Edward Gibbon
After a terrible week, the market finally managed a decent oversold bounce on Friday. For a while it looked like the strength was going to fizzle, but a surge in the last half hour of trading kept us near the highs of the day Volume was heavy, breadth pretty good and option expiration obviously had some impact.
So was the action on Friday the start of a meaningful turn, or was it just a countertrend move that helped to relieve some of the oversold pressure? The market went down so much, so fast that it is reasonable to expect some relief rallies, but does that mean we are ready to put in a bottom and turn back up?
For over a year, this market has consistently recovered in "V"-shaped fashion. Instead of some back-and-forth and basing action -- which you'd normally expect when the market is starting to turn -- we have tended to just go straight back up on light volume as if nothing had happened.
The bears' response to those who are looking for another quick bounce is that this time, conditions are different. We now have a major macroeconomic problem that has returned us to reality. The market pretty much ignored all negatives for a long time -- much to the surprise of many underinvested market players -- but now we are seeing that the fallout from our economic crisis is still affecting Europe and has not been fully contained or addressed.
I'll let others argue over whether things really have changed. What I do know is that after the poor technical action of the last couple weeks, we are in a very tough spot. We sold off hard enough for an oversold bounce on Friday, but we have definitely suffered some major damage and it isn't logical to expect the market to recovery quickly or easily. It certainly can happen, as we saw quite often -- especially this past February -- but there is no good reason to declare that we are now at point where we should expect the market to turn back up.
Although there is no compelling reason to believe that this correction is over, that doesn't mean that we won't hear plenty of market pundits make that declaration. One of the most popular games on Wall Street is "Call That Turn," and the pundits will do it early and often until they finally get it right. The bears drove themselves crazy trying to call a top in this market for nearly a year, but that isn't going to slow down the bulls. They will ignore the power of trends and will be anxious to tell us that the worst is over. We are going to hear quite often how we should plunge into this sea of red so we don't miss out on all the great opportunities that will certainly disappear if we don't act immediately.
We are starting the new week with some selling pressure, which is a bit of a change in market character. We have consistently had strong Monday mornings, but this time the worries about Europe are just too great. The weak open on Friday made for a good trade, and I expect that the dip-buyers will try again this morning. But don't forget that this market has undergone a change lately and the confidence that drove us straight back up so often has dissipated.
As I went through charts this weekend, I saw hundreds of broken charts with a one-day bounce on Friday. They might bounce a bit more, but they almost all face formidable upside resistance and will be classic short setups fairly soon. We are in a middle zone right now where we are too weak and broken to look for sustained upside but down too far to press shorts very hard.
Continue to play defense as you watch how the action unfolds. Be very careful about playing the bottom-calling game at this point. We could be at a good low, but the charts just don't support much buying. We need some proof in the form of an upside follow-through before we can be more bullish.
-----------------------------------
Briefing.com vahendusel:
Ülespoole avanevad:
With S&P futures down ~10 pts, few stocks are gapping up this morning...
M&A news: ODSY +36.6% (to be acquired by GTIV for $27/share in cash).
Other news: STSA +9.3% (Warburg Pincus will invest $139.0 mln in STBA), KFN +4.2% (positive Cramer mention).
Analyst comments: S +5.2% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman; also a positive weekend report regarding the upcoming release of co's 4G phone), SEED +3.5% (tgt upped to $17 from $15 at Rodman & Renshaw), THC +2.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $8 from $7).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping Down: AIB -5.5%, BBVA -5.0%, TOT -4.8%, STD -4.7%, ING -4.5%, JNPR -4.2%, MT -4.2%, IRE -4.1%, ALU -4.1%, BP -4.1%.
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/24/2010 8:11 AM EDT
The winds and waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators.
-- Edward Gibbon
After a terrible week, the market finally managed a decent oversold bounce on Friday. For a while it looked like the strength was going to fizzle, but a surge in the last half hour of trading kept us near the highs of the day Volume was heavy, breadth pretty good and option expiration obviously had some impact.
So was the action on Friday the start of a meaningful turn, or was it just a countertrend move that helped to relieve some of the oversold pressure? The market went down so much, so fast that it is reasonable to expect some relief rallies, but does that mean we are ready to put in a bottom and turn back up?
For over a year, this market has consistently recovered in "V"-shaped fashion. Instead of some back-and-forth and basing action -- which you'd normally expect when the market is starting to turn -- we have tended to just go straight back up on light volume as if nothing had happened.
The bears' response to those who are looking for another quick bounce is that this time, conditions are different. We now have a major macroeconomic problem that has returned us to reality. The market pretty much ignored all negatives for a long time -- much to the surprise of many underinvested market players -- but now we are seeing that the fallout from our economic crisis is still affecting Europe and has not been fully contained or addressed.
I'll let others argue over whether things really have changed. What I do know is that after the poor technical action of the last couple weeks, we are in a very tough spot. We sold off hard enough for an oversold bounce on Friday, but we have definitely suffered some major damage and it isn't logical to expect the market to recovery quickly or easily. It certainly can happen, as we saw quite often -- especially this past February -- but there is no good reason to declare that we are now at point where we should expect the market to turn back up.
Although there is no compelling reason to believe that this correction is over, that doesn't mean that we won't hear plenty of market pundits make that declaration. One of the most popular games on Wall Street is "Call That Turn," and the pundits will do it early and often until they finally get it right. The bears drove themselves crazy trying to call a top in this market for nearly a year, but that isn't going to slow down the bulls. They will ignore the power of trends and will be anxious to tell us that the worst is over. We are going to hear quite often how we should plunge into this sea of red so we don't miss out on all the great opportunities that will certainly disappear if we don't act immediately.
We are starting the new week with some selling pressure, which is a bit of a change in market character. We have consistently had strong Monday mornings, but this time the worries about Europe are just too great. The weak open on Friday made for a good trade, and I expect that the dip-buyers will try again this morning. But don't forget that this market has undergone a change lately and the confidence that drove us straight back up so often has dissipated.
As I went through charts this weekend, I saw hundreds of broken charts with a one-day bounce on Friday. They might bounce a bit more, but they almost all face formidable upside resistance and will be classic short setups fairly soon. We are in a middle zone right now where we are too weak and broken to look for sustained upside but down too far to press shorts very hard.
Continue to play defense as you watch how the action unfolds. Be very careful about playing the bottom-calling game at this point. We could be at a good low, but the charts just don't support much buying. We need some proof in the form of an upside follow-through before we can be more bullish.
-----------------------------------
Briefing.com vahendusel:
Ülespoole avanevad:
With S&P futures down ~10 pts, few stocks are gapping up this morning...
M&A news: ODSY +36.6% (to be acquired by GTIV for $27/share in cash).
Other news: STSA +9.3% (Warburg Pincus will invest $139.0 mln in STBA), KFN +4.2% (positive Cramer mention).
Analyst comments: S +5.2% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman; also a positive weekend report regarding the upcoming release of co's 4G phone), SEED +3.5% (tgt upped to $17 from $15 at Rodman & Renshaw), THC +2.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $8 from $7).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping Down: AIB -5.5%, BBVA -5.0%, TOT -4.8%, STD -4.7%, ING -4.5%, JNPR -4.2%, MT -4.2%, IRE -4.1%, ALU -4.1%, BP -4.1%.
April Existing Home Sales 5.77 mln vs 5.65 mln consensus; m/m +7.6%
Tund aega enne kauplemispäeva lõppu tundus juba, et põhi hakkab tasapisi käest ära minema. Aga praegu suudeti siiski veel stabiliseeruda. Iseenesest üpriski oluline päevalõpp - kui juba nädala esimene päev punaseks müüakse (viimase paarikümne nädala esmaspäevadest peaks rohelised olema ca 90%), siis võtaks see ilmselt ka tulihingelisemal pullil jala pisut värisema. Kui suudetakse päevalõppu hoida, siis aitaks see pullidel sarvi tervamaks ihuda.
Ja sinna see päeva lõpp läks...
Ja kus on põrge? :)
Enam ei suudeta isegi esmaspäeva rohelises hoida.
Enam ei suudeta isegi esmaspäeva rohelises hoida.
Mikk, volatiilsus volatiilsuseks, kuid mis on peamiseks põhjuseks, et võlakirjade väljastamine ettevõtete poolt on viimastel nädalatel täielikult kokku kuivanud?
Kas ettevõtetel väiksemad finantseerimisvajadused või alternatiivsed võimalused finantseerimiseks?
Kas ettevõtetel väiksemad finantseerimisvajadused või alternatiivsed võimalused finantseerimiseks?
Turg ei seedi pakutavat supplyd. Õigemini praegu on lausa paastupäevad.
Mis selle pakkumisega siis lahti on? Kui ettevõtte seisukohast vaadata, siis ikkagi, kas küsitav intress ei ahvatle võlakirjaturult raha hankima?
OunaAnts, eks see võib jah probleem olla. Ilmselt on siin näha, et investorite huvi on sellise intressimäära juures võlakirjade vastu kahanemas (kardetakse double dipi?), tulusus tõuseb ja mitmed ettevõtted otsustasvad võlakirjade väljastamise edasi lükata (äkki proovitakse nt pärast suve). Aga kindlasti on paljudel ettevõtetel vaja võlga üle rullida, mistõttu on see graafik üsna murettekitav.
Intress intressiks. Kui investorid ei taha võlga osta, siis ei ole ka kuhugile müüa. Kreeka jm probleemid on investorid ettevaatlikuks Euroopa võla osas tehtud.
momentum, võlg on selline ürgne, rahvusvaheline ja populaarne toode, mille järgi vajadus kaob lõplikult alles siis, kui maa peal elu lõpeb. Muidu on eksisteerib nõudlus ja pakkumine alati, küsimus vaid hinnas (mis ei ole hetkel atraktiivne). Mikk, tänud asjaliku selgituse eest.