Eile jätkus USA börsidel vaikne allapoole tiksumine ning ka täna hommikul on USA eelturul futuurid 0.3%-0.4% miinusesse vajunud. Aasia oli valdavalt punane.
Makro poole pealt on USAst täna oodata juulikuu olemasolevate eluasemete annualiseeritud müüginumbreid, millelt oodatakse ca 4.72 miljonilist näitu. Suurem number oleks kindlasti oluliseks positiivseks üllatuseks, mis aitaks loiul turul ostuhuvi tekitada. Väiksem number see-eest kinnitaks üha halvenevat makropilti. Võrdluseks niipalju, et juuni näit oli 5.37 miljonit.
How Hyperinflation Will Happen
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-how-hyperinflation-will-happen
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-how-hyperinflation-will-happen
Bespoke on välja toonud sektorite lõikes lõppenud teise kvartali tulemustehooaja ettevõtete oodatud vs tegeliku kasumi aktsia kohta yoy. Konsensuse ootusi ületasid kõige rohkem finants-, mitte-esmatarbekaupade- ning energiasektori ettevõtted, kus tulemused erinesid oodatust vastavalt +38.4%, +32.2% ning +25.7%. Kõige vähem üllatasid tehnoloogiasektori ettevõtted, kus tulemused vastasid kõige täpsemalt analüütikute ootustele.
Valuutaturgudel on toimumas päris suured liikumised: Jaapani jeen on saavutanud USA dollari vastu uue 15 aasta tipu, murdes läbi 11. augustil tehtud ¥84,71 tasemest. Praeguse seisuga on uueks tipuks ¥84,15.
EUR/USD on langenud täna 0,4% ja kaupleb hetkel $1,2600 piirimail.
GBP/USD on langenud 0,8% ja kaupleb allpool $1,5400 taset.
EUR/USD on langenud täna 0,4% ja kaupleb hetkel $1,2600 piirimail.
GBP/USD on langenud 0,8% ja kaupleb allpool $1,5400 taset.
Goldman Sachs on eile hilisõhtul välja andnud note'i, kus nad hoiatavad, et nende arvates on suurem osa analüüsimaju ja majandusanalüütikuid USA tulevast majanduskasvu hindamas liiga kõrgelt ning et neil tuleb hakata oma prognoose langetama. GS usub, et 2010. aasta teise poole ja 2011. aasta alguse kasv jääb annualiseerituna ca +1.5% juurde ning et võimalik, et tegelikult on näitaja ka sellest väiksem.
Reedel avaldatakse USA 2. kvartali SKP korrigeeritud näitaja ning kui algselt teatati +2.4%lisest kasvust, siis nüüd ootab konsensus selle allapoole korrigeerimist +1.4% peale. Goldman Sachs hoiatab, et nende arvates võib allapoole korrigeerimine tulla isegi +1.1% peale. Tõenäoust, et näeme järgnevate kvartalite jooksul ka negatiivset USA reaal-SKP näidu muutust, hindab GS küll ebatõenäoliseks, kuid annab sellele stsenaariumile siiski 25%-30% tõenäosuse.
Reedel avaldatakse USA 2. kvartali SKP korrigeeritud näitaja ning kui algselt teatati +2.4%lisest kasvust, siis nüüd ootab konsensus selle allapoole korrigeerimist +1.4% peale. Goldman Sachs hoiatab, et nende arvates võib allapoole korrigeerimine tulla isegi +1.1% peale. Tõenäoust, et näeme järgnevate kvartalite jooksul ka negatiivset USA reaal-SKP näidu muutust, hindab GS küll ebatõenäoliseks, kuid annab sellele stsenaariumile siiski 25%-30% tõenäosuse.
Euroopa indeksid on samal ajal vajunud ca 1% jagu miinusesse, euro on dollari vastu langenud tasemele €1=$1.262 ning USA tähtsamate indeksite futuurid on võrreldes eilsega juba ca 0.8% kuni 0.9% madalamal.
Kui USA kasv jääb 1,5% peale, siis mingit kriisist toibumist ei ole ju! 1,5% suurune majanduskasv ei tapa tööpuudust mis kriisiga tekkinud on. +1,1% või lausa negatiivne kasv oleks ju puhas disaster.
kuna USA on kasvava rahvaarvuga riik, siis per capita kisubki kasvunumber nukraks
Eurotsooni tehaste tellimuste muutus juunis oli mom +2.5% vs oodatud +1.5% ning yoy muutus +22.6% vs oodatud +24.2%.
lisaks veel
Eurostat revised up May industrial orders to 4.1 percent month-on-month and 23.0 percent annually, from previous readings of 3.8 percent and 22.7 percent. The annual gain in May was the biggest in 10 years.
Eurostat said that without volatile orders for ships, planes and trains, the monthly increase in June was 1.6 percent and the year-on-year jump was 22.5 percent.
Eurostat revised up May industrial orders to 4.1 percent month-on-month and 23.0 percent annually, from previous readings of 3.8 percent and 22.7 percent. The annual gain in May was the biggest in 10 years.
Eurostat said that without volatile orders for ships, planes and trains, the monthly increase in June was 1.6 percent and the year-on-year jump was 22.5 percent.
Kuidas saab sama numbri mom ootus biitida, kuid yoy ootus alla jääda?
Tekkis sama küsimus, aga sellele vastas vast Henno, st mai numbrid vaadati ülespoole.
Jeen jätkab tõusu: dollari vastu käis ¥83,70 juures ja euro vastu saavutati 9 aasta tipp ¥105,40 juures.
Sel ajal kui USA aktsiaindeksite futuurid on langenud juba ca 1.2%-1.3% miinusesse, on USA valitsuse 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus kukkunud 2.52% peale. Nii madala tulususe juures olime viimati 2009. aasta märtsis. Saksamaa valitsuse 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus on langenud 2.19% peale. Võlakirjad või aktsiad? Mina ostaksin aktsiaid.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1.42%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.80%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -1.56%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.63%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1.38%
Venemaa MICEX -1.40%
Poola WIG -1.56%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.33%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.10%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.39%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +5.06%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.45%
Tai Set 50 -0.89%
India Sensex 30 -0.53%
Toil and Trouble
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/24/2010 8:30 AM EDT
"There are two ways of meeting difficulties: You alter the difficulties or you alter yourself to meet them."
-- Phyllis Bottome
Ever since the S&P500 failed to make it through July highs after trying for nearly a week, we have seen fairly steady selling pressure. We've traded back down through the 200- and the 50-day simple moving averages of the S&P 500 and other than one brief oversold bounce last Wednesday, the pressure has been fairly steady. Volume has been extremely light, which has increased the instability, but the problem is simply that the buyers just don't have the energy to turn things up for very long.
The bullish argument here is that we have already priced in weak economic news, even the possibility of a double-dip recession. Earnings reports were generally good, and while we may not have a booming economy, there are signs of some improvement here and there. There are negatives, but this market is way too gloomy, especially as the Fed is going to keep the old printing press going as long as it needs to.
The bearish argument is that we have hardly begun to price in another economic dip. GDP estimates are still too high, housing and jobs stink, and there is too much optimism about the pace of recovery. Maybe earnings were good, but those were peak numbers, and now estimates are too high going forward and will have to come down. We still have a tremendous number of problems that the Fed is incapable of fixing. In fact, government is only likely to compound the problem if it keeps racking up huge new debt.
I'll let you decide which side has the better argument. What I do know is that the charts of all the major indices are leaning bearish. Maybe we will see another oversold bounce soon, but the technical condition doesn't look very good. We have a little underlying support, but those July lows are beckoning, and it isn't going to take much to put them back into play. This light volume and the negative seasonality aren't helping.
Earnings season was very positive for the market, but we've lost that catalyst now, so we are focused on things like the housing data, out shortly. There has been a lot of worry about how the economic data have been trending down lately, and the housing report is going to be very important today.
I've been preaching a defensive stance for a couple of weeks now, with the proviso that an ultra-short-term or day-trading approach can be taken if you want to trade on the long side. There have been some small pockets of good action, but they are becoming increasingly unstable as the market has struggled.
We are gapping down this morning, and overseas markets were generally weak. Housing at 10.00 a.m. EDT will help to set the mood, but right now, it is looking quite negative.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FMCN +2.5%.
M&A news: DTPI +30.1% (Diamond Mngmt to be acquired by PricewaterhouseCoopers for 12.50/share), PAR +2.9% (ticking higher on reports that DELL is preparing to raise its bid for the company), POT +0.8% (CNBC reports that Rio Tinto may team with a Chinese partner to make a bid for Potash).
Other news: PBTH +4.0% (Receives FDA Clearance for a Phase II Trial of Its Long-Acting Human Growth Hormone in the U.S), AVII +3.9% (Announces Positive Results Against Human Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus in Preclinical Studies of AVI-7100 ), HEB +3.9% (settles all securities class actions).
Analyst comments: VECO +1.9% (added to Top Picks Live list at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CRH -16.8%, MDT -5.1%, BIG -4.2%, WPPGY -3.6% (light volume).
M&A news: RTP -3.6% (CNBC reports that Rio Tinto may team with a Chinese partner to make a bid for Potash), DELL -1.6% (under modest pressure on speculation that the co is preparing to raise its bid for PAR).
Select financial related names showing weakness: PMI -4.3%, BCS -3.4%, RBS -3.3%, AEG -3.3%, IRE -3.3%, NBG -3.1%, HBAN -2.8%, GNW -2.6%, LYG -2.6%, STD -2.4%, BBVA -2.3%, HBC -1.9%, ING -1.9%, HIG -1.9%, BBT -1.9%, BX -1.7%, FITB -1.6%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLW -3.4%, AU -3.3%, EGO -3.0%, FCX -2.8%, TCK -2.8%, NG -2.7%, ABX -2.7%, GDX -2.6%, MT -2.4%, GOLD -2.3%, GLD -0.9%, .
Select steel related names also under pressure in early trade: CENX -4.4%, X -3.0%, NUE -2.0%.
Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: ACGY -4.1%, SD -3.4%, SDRL -3.3%, BP -3.1%, APC -3.0%, STO -2.3%, PBR -2.1%, TOT -2.0%, RDS.A -1.7%, E -1.6%, .
Select European drug names trading lower: SNY -2.7%, AZN -1.9%,
Other news: BIOD -4.8% (informed AMRI had received a warning letter; does not believe that the letter will have any long-term impact on its commercialization plans), ASML -3.3% (still checking), FRO -2.7% (still checking), SXL -2.7% (commenced offering of 1.75 mln common units pursuant to effective shelf registration statement).
Analyst comments: OPEN -3.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel), POM -2.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), DUK -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup),
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/24/2010 8:30 AM EDT
"There are two ways of meeting difficulties: You alter the difficulties or you alter yourself to meet them."
-- Phyllis Bottome
Ever since the S&P500 failed to make it through July highs after trying for nearly a week, we have seen fairly steady selling pressure. We've traded back down through the 200- and the 50-day simple moving averages of the S&P 500 and other than one brief oversold bounce last Wednesday, the pressure has been fairly steady. Volume has been extremely light, which has increased the instability, but the problem is simply that the buyers just don't have the energy to turn things up for very long.
The bullish argument here is that we have already priced in weak economic news, even the possibility of a double-dip recession. Earnings reports were generally good, and while we may not have a booming economy, there are signs of some improvement here and there. There are negatives, but this market is way too gloomy, especially as the Fed is going to keep the old printing press going as long as it needs to.
The bearish argument is that we have hardly begun to price in another economic dip. GDP estimates are still too high, housing and jobs stink, and there is too much optimism about the pace of recovery. Maybe earnings were good, but those were peak numbers, and now estimates are too high going forward and will have to come down. We still have a tremendous number of problems that the Fed is incapable of fixing. In fact, government is only likely to compound the problem if it keeps racking up huge new debt.
I'll let you decide which side has the better argument. What I do know is that the charts of all the major indices are leaning bearish. Maybe we will see another oversold bounce soon, but the technical condition doesn't look very good. We have a little underlying support, but those July lows are beckoning, and it isn't going to take much to put them back into play. This light volume and the negative seasonality aren't helping.
Earnings season was very positive for the market, but we've lost that catalyst now, so we are focused on things like the housing data, out shortly. There has been a lot of worry about how the economic data have been trending down lately, and the housing report is going to be very important today.
I've been preaching a defensive stance for a couple of weeks now, with the proviso that an ultra-short-term or day-trading approach can be taken if you want to trade on the long side. There have been some small pockets of good action, but they are becoming increasingly unstable as the market has struggled.
We are gapping down this morning, and overseas markets were generally weak. Housing at 10.00 a.m. EDT will help to set the mood, but right now, it is looking quite negative.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FMCN +2.5%.
M&A news: DTPI +30.1% (Diamond Mngmt to be acquired by PricewaterhouseCoopers for 12.50/share), PAR +2.9% (ticking higher on reports that DELL is preparing to raise its bid for the company), POT +0.8% (CNBC reports that Rio Tinto may team with a Chinese partner to make a bid for Potash).
Other news: PBTH +4.0% (Receives FDA Clearance for a Phase II Trial of Its Long-Acting Human Growth Hormone in the U.S), AVII +3.9% (Announces Positive Results Against Human Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus in Preclinical Studies of AVI-7100 ), HEB +3.9% (settles all securities class actions).
Analyst comments: VECO +1.9% (added to Top Picks Live list at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CRH -16.8%, MDT -5.1%, BIG -4.2%, WPPGY -3.6% (light volume).
M&A news: RTP -3.6% (CNBC reports that Rio Tinto may team with a Chinese partner to make a bid for Potash), DELL -1.6% (under modest pressure on speculation that the co is preparing to raise its bid for PAR).
Select financial related names showing weakness: PMI -4.3%, BCS -3.4%, RBS -3.3%, AEG -3.3%, IRE -3.3%, NBG -3.1%, HBAN -2.8%, GNW -2.6%, LYG -2.6%, STD -2.4%, BBVA -2.3%, HBC -1.9%, ING -1.9%, HIG -1.9%, BBT -1.9%, BX -1.7%, FITB -1.6%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLW -3.4%, AU -3.3%, EGO -3.0%, FCX -2.8%, TCK -2.8%, NG -2.7%, ABX -2.7%, GDX -2.6%, MT -2.4%, GOLD -2.3%, GLD -0.9%, .
Select steel related names also under pressure in early trade: CENX -4.4%, X -3.0%, NUE -2.0%.
Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: ACGY -4.1%, SD -3.4%, SDRL -3.3%, BP -3.1%, APC -3.0%, STO -2.3%, PBR -2.1%, TOT -2.0%, RDS.A -1.7%, E -1.6%, .
Select European drug names trading lower: SNY -2.7%, AZN -1.9%,
Other news: BIOD -4.8% (informed AMRI had received a warning letter; does not believe that the letter will have any long-term impact on its commercialization plans), ASML -3.3% (still checking), FRO -2.7% (still checking), SXL -2.7% (commenced offering of 1.75 mln common units pursuant to effective shelf registration statement).
Analyst comments: OPEN -3.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel), POM -2.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), DUK -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup),
Olemasolevate eluasemete müüginumbriks tuli 3.83 miljonit vs oodatud 4.65 miljonit. Juunikuu numbrit revideeriti alla 5.37 miljoni pealt 5.26 miljoni peale.
Dow Jones Industrial indeks käis ära ka allpool 10 000 punkti taset, kuid kaupleb praegu täpselt ümmarguse numbri peal. Juulikuu kinnisvaramüüginumbrid demonstreerivad ehedalt, kui järsk võib olla ärakukkumine nõudluses, kui inimeste usaldus majanduskeskkonna paranemise osas väheneb ning kinnisvaraostustiimulid on äsja lõpule jõudnud. Aga kes teab, äkki on juba õige varsti uus stiimulprogramm laual?
Kunagi ostetud NFLX put sai hetkeks ära müüdud @ $4.00, mille saab tõenäoliselt sama raha eest tagasi.
Euro rallib dollari vastu ja see aitab USA indekseid ka ülespoole tõmmata. €1=$1.271.