Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Euroopa turud on täna hommikul päris heas plussis ning dollar alustas mõne tunni eest tugevat rallit teiste valuutade vastu. Graafikul USD/EUR. See on andnud positiivse tooni ka USA futuuridele:
- Adams Harkness tõstab Brocade Communication Systems (BRCD)-i reitingu Strong Buy peale varasema Buy pealt. 12 kuu hinnasihiks $8.75. Nende arvates on reedene aktsiate 15% kukkumine veidi liiast.
- JP Morgan lisab OmniVision Tech (OVTI)-i oma Weekly Top 3 Ideas nimekirja 6-kuulise $75 hinnasihiga. Mis aga veelgi olulisem, Lexar Media (LEXR) on see firma, mis peab oma koha loovutama. See võib tuua kaasa müügisurve, kuna tõenäoliselt on mitmed JP Morgan kliendid neid aktsiad varem ostnud.
- Barrons kirjutab täna hommikul üpris neg. maiguga loo Four Seasons (FS)-i nimelisest hotelliketist. Oma luksusklikkuse poolest tuntud hotellioperaatori aktsiad kauplevad 91x selle aasta kasumit aktsia kohta, mis on mitu korda kõrgem näitaja võrreldes ülejäänud sektoriga.
"Kids with freckles are always going to have freckles. Four Seasons stock is always going to be expensive."
Selline on ühe ebaõnnestunult neid aktsiaid lühikeseks müünud fondijuhi kommentaar. Ka analüütikud nendivad, et selle firma aktsiad ostes tuleb prügikasti visata kõik klassikalised aktsiate hindamise vahendid.
Kuuldavasti Britney Spears eelistab alati Fours Seasonsi hotelle..
- Barronsi iganädalases intervjuus pakub Hummingbird Fund-si juht Paul Sonkin investoritele huvitavaid ideesid pisikeste aktsiate seast:
Mity Enterprises (MITY) - toodab plastmassist laudu.
George Risk Ind (RISKA) - firma toodab basseinialarme, mis nüüd on Floridas seaduse järgi kohustuslikud. Aktsiad võivad praegustelt tasemetelt kahekordistuda.
Keith Cos (TKCI) - firma pakub inseneriteenuseid kinnisvarafirmadele.
Trailer Bridge (TRBR) - pakub logistikateenuseid USA ning Puerto Rico vahel.
- Lehman tõstab Fairchild Semi (FCS) reitingu Overweight peale varasema Equal Weight pealt. Samas mainitakse, et väiksem konkurent ON Semi (ONNN) võib olla huvitav pisike mäng. Hinnasiht tõstetakse $4.50 pealt $6.50 peale.
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVShark:
The facts are clear. Although the indices were hitting multiyear highs just a short time ago, the market has been struggling lately. The Nasdaq is at the same level it was seven weeks ago, solid economic news is failing to move the market, and the dip buyers have become more cautious. Mutual fund scandals, a weak dollar, valuation concerns and a big move since March have many folks ready to declare that it is time for the market to pull back significantly and take a rest.
Those are the facts that support the bearish viewpoint but our short-term direction is going to be determined by emotions. The most important determinate of where this market is heading is the attitude of market participants. Are the bulls ready to lock in profits, move to the sidelines and high five each other for the best performance since 1999? Or are they just resting before they make another run and try to improve their relative performance before we ring in a new year?
The next five weeks are all about attitude and sentiment. The good news for the bulls is that this tends to be the season of good cheer and positive feelings. Santa Claus has a habit of delivering rallies. The economy is clearly improving. Can the bulls run further or have they priced in a recovery already?
The bulls will tell you that the recent market weakness provides exactly the sort of worry and skepticism that will help support an end-of-the-year rally. The contrarian bears have been citing the very high level of bullish sentiment for months as a good reason to expect a pullback. That high level of optimism has diminished a bit lately and the contrarian bulls are saying that we are setting up a situation that will allow us to climb the proverbial wall of worry to conclude the year.
The bears warn that we shouldn't be too quick to conclude that a year-end rally is a certainty. We never really saw the substantial seasonal weakness that many expected this fall so why should we expect we see seasonality in the holiday season? Too many folks are looking for this scenario to play out and that means it's unlikely to happen. Furthermore, the technical picture is precarious at best. The major indices are all very close to significant technical breakdowns. The fact that this market can regain any steam despite good economic numbers should be sufficient warning that the upside is going to be tough.
Will positive attitudes drive us to new highs before the end of the year or will the weight of factual concerns be too great? We are kicking off Thanksgiving week with a positive tone. Asia is a bit mixed but Europe is up across the board. Gold is trading down a couple dollars, oil is down and the dollar is mixed.
The market is set up fairly well for a technical bounce. This is typically a good week for the bulls. Will they be able to run a bit or has the tone changed sufficiently that the bears will stomp on strength fairly quickly? We'll find out soon enough.
Futuurid: Naz0.62% Dow0.53%
sB
