Why? My IMs and emails and phone calls all seem to start off with that single word: Why? Why is the market crashing? (Can we even call the action in the Nasdaq and SMH "crashing" yet? I mean, the Nas is down nearly 8% and the SMH down nearly 12% in the last month. Declines that big and that fast certainly have crash characteristics to it.)
Why can't stocks catch any sort of a sustainable bid? The questions then turn to the circular question of: What are stocks telling us? What does this stock market collapse say?
Sometimes the answers to such questions can be rather simplistic, and in my mind, this is one of those times. I've repeatedly discussed how essentially every long I know was fully invested into the new year and looking for a big spike in January. Further, in the final two weeks of last year, all of my many bearish friends had covered most of their shorts and even gotten long themselves expecting a big rally in January. Even daytraders got long into the new year, taking merchandise home -- a very uncharacteristic move.
So rather than ask why or what, maybe the right question is simply: who? As in, who was left to buy? The short answer is: nobody. So we came into the new year and immediately stocks faded. And when things started badly, everybody looked around and thought, "Uh oh, I'm trapped, surely a rally is just around the corner." And when everybody's trapped and looking for a rally, it won't come.
So when the mo-mo guys balked as stocks couldn't find their legs, stocks faded further, and the shorts -- frustrated beyond belief after having been punished for months on end by fighting the autumn rally and now being crushed in a decline -- began to sell the longs they picked up and sell out of their positions, giving up on their hoped-for rally.
The longs, meanwhile, were starting to see their entire gains from the autumn rally disappear, and they started to capitulate and sell into the weakness. And stocks fall further.
By extrapolating out from the money managers I talk to, I figure that tens of billions of dollars have been unwinding this missing "January Effect" trade. Thus, the trashed charts in front of you.
The futures are pointing to a strong open -- shocker! Let's see if the dumpers and unwinders have finally finished. More on this later.
U.S. Steel's (X: news, chart, profile) net earnings for the three months ended Dec. 31 rose to $462 million, or $3.55 a share, compared with a loss of $22 million, or 26 cents a share in the final quarter of 2003, and surpassing the $2.71 per-share expected by analysts polled by Thomson First Call.
Revenue from the year's final three months totaled $3.9 billion, up from $2.6 billion a year earlier.
Construction and manufacturing behind a steadily expanding global economy has driven steel demand - and prices - sharply higher over the past year, a trend US Steel said it expects to continue into 2005.
U.S. Steel said it expects flat-rolled steel prices to hold at current high levels through the first quarter of 2005, but warned steep raw materials and energy costs would likely take a bite out of its profit margins.
U.S. Steel's output for the year also will be set back by a planned third-quarter overhaul of a blast furnace at its Gary, Ind., mill. For the year, U.S. Steel said it expects to sell about 15.4 million tons of rolled steel.
The company also gained a $1.45 billion net credit stemming from a year-end ruling that its defined pension plan no longer needs to carry an additional minimum liability. The credit has no effect on its income or cash flow.
The company said its 2005 capital spending will likely hit $755 million, $475 million of which is earmarked for North American facilities and $280 million for European mills.
Shares in U.S. Steel closed 5 cents higher Monday at $50.37.
U.S. Steel's (X: news, chart, profile) net earnings for the three months ended Dec. 31 rose to $462 million, or $3.55 a share, compared with a loss of $22 million, or 26 cents a share in the final quarter of 2003, and surpassing the $2.71 per-share expected by analysts polled by Thomson First Call.
Revenue from the year's final three months totaled $3.9 billion, up from $2.6 billion a year earlier.
Construction and manufacturing behind a steadily expanding global economy has driven steel demand - and prices - sharply higher over the past year, a trend US Steel said it expects to continue into 2005.
U.S. Steel said it expects flat-rolled steel prices to hold at current high levels through the first quarter of 2005, but warned steep raw materials and energy costs would likely take a bite out of its profit margins.
U.S. Steel's output for the year also will be set back by a planned third-quarter overhaul of a blast furnace at its Gary, Ind., mill. For the year, U.S. Steel said it expects to sell about 15.4 million tons of rolled steel.
The company also gained a $1.45 billion net credit stemming from a year-end ruling that its defined pension plan no longer needs to carry an additional minimum liability. The credit has no effect on its income or cash flow.
The company said its 2005 capital spending will likely hit $755 million, $475 million of which is earmarked for North American facilities and $280 million for European mills.
Shares in U.S. Steel closed 5 cents higher Monday at $50.37.
kas kuskil on mingid reeglid mida tohib foorumisse kirjutada ja mida mitte? uudiseid või lõikeid nendest on siin ju kõikjal väga palju ja foorum ju võikski olla täiesti selline koht kus selliseid uudiseid kajastada ja nende üle arutada või on lhvl siiber mõne külastaja postitustest mulle on jäänud mulje et "külastaja" kasutab kellegi teise teenust kui lhv, kui üldse
1) Energy kopeeris ilma ühegi kommentaarita pika inglise keelse teksti. 2) Seost muude tekstidega polnud, kustutasin selle. 3) Energy postitas sama teksti uuesti. 4) Kirjutasin talle, et sellist pikka inglise keelset teksti ilma kommentaarita pole ilmselt vaja siia kopeerida. 5) Energy vastas "Lasteaed" 6) Seejärel kirjutas uuesti ja palus kõik oma kommentaarid kustutada.
Ei tunne mingit vajadust häbi tunda, kirjeldus siin selleks, et ei jääks muljet nagu LHV-s ülirange tsensuur möllaks.
Joonatan, Pro all on vanad ideed on suletud ja ka vastav märge juures ju.. Uute lisamisega on tulemuste hooajal keeruline, kuna tulemused võivad liigutada aktsiaid täiesti ettearvamatult. Kui hooaeg hakkab rahunema, siis tuleb ka uusi ideid.