Kui eelnevad päevad on makro osas võrdlemisi vaeseks jäänud, siis tänane päevakava tõotab juba märksa põnevamaks kujuneda. Eurotsoonis on täna juba avaldatud septembri esmane PMI näit, mis peegeldas tootmis- ja teenustesektori laienemist teist kuud järjest, seda küll aeglasemalt kui oodati. Ostujuhtide indeks kerkis augusti 50.4-lt 50.8-le, jäädes 0.5 punktiga väiksemaks Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute prognoosidest.
Õhtul kell 21.15 võtab Föderaalreserv kokku oma kohtumise, kus võidakse tunnistada paranevat väljavaadet majanduses ning korrata, et intressimäär jääb pikemaks ajaks rekordmadalale tasemele. Pingsalt jälgitakse võimalikke kommentaare, mis puudutavad tagasitõmbumist võla kokkuostmisel ja üleüldist väljumisstrateegiat.
Kes kuulab hea meelega, mida Marc Faberil öelda on, siis Bloomberg on teinud eile temagaintervjuu, kus muuhulgas puudutakse ka tänast FOMC miitingut. Faber nendib, et ehkki Bernanke läks rahatrükkimisega valele teele, ei ole tal mõistlik praeguses olukorras võla rahastamist peatada, kuna see süvendaks majanduslangust.
Morgan Stanley on täna hommikul tõstmas Marvell Entertainmenti (MRVL) hinnasihti $18.50 pealt $20 peale ning kinnitab oma 'overweight' soovitust. Ettevõtte suurklient Rimm (RIMM) annab üle 10% MRVLi tuludest ning RIMM on oma tulemused teatamas 24. septembri järelturul. Seega kui RIMMi numbrid on homme oodatust paremad, võiks ostuhuvi näha ka MRVL aktsias ning kui ootustele jäädaks alla, peaks ka MRVL langusega kaasa minema.
MS: "Raising Estimates – Reiterate Overweight:Our checks indicate that upside exists to the current quarter, and we believe MRVL’s multiple product cycles will continue to drive higher visibility relative to other semiconductor companies. Moreover, we also believe MRVL’s cost discipline will drive outsized earnings growth relative to other semiconductor companies."
Euroopa turud: Saksamaa DAX +0.20% Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.32% Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.51% Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.28% Rootsi OMX 30 +0.56% Venemaa MICEX +1.64% Poola WIG +0.73%
Aasia turud: Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud) Hong Kongi Hang Seng 0.49% Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.90% Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.21% Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.49% Tai Set 50 +0.86% India Sensex 30 -0.99%
Don't Think Too Hard About This Market By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 9/23/2009 8:25 AM EDT
Very often a change of self is needed more than a change of scene. -- Arthur Christopher Benson
Nothing in this market has changed for a while, and that makes navigating it increasingly difficult. Market players have a strong tendency to always be looking for something to change so that they can trade it. When the market is going up, there is always a lot of talk about when it when it will top out; when it is going down, everyone is constantly looking for the bottom. Change is an easy thing to target when you are trading, so our default position is to always be looking for it.
Everything eventually does change, so it is our nature to always be looking ahead and anticipating how it will be different down the road. Unfortunately for those who like to forecast the future, it simply hasn't paid to think too much about the current market. We are in strong uptrend and there aren't any signs that it is about to end. In fact, the constant search for a market top is what helps to delay it, as it creates a steady source of underinvested bulls who keep on supporting things when they don't decline.
The best way to deal with the present market is to just not think about the validity of the uptrend, but it is very hard to just sit and endlessly ride a market that seemingly ignores any negative. You can drive yourself crazy finding tons of very ugly bearish arguments about the market and the economy. There is no shortage of well reasoned highly sophisticated arguments about why we are doomed. They may even turn out to be right, but it just isn't being reflected in this market at present.
This market is acting not only like the bear market and economic recession are over, but that the pace of continued recovery will be very steady and robust. Every day there is news that seems at odds with that behavior. Just in the last few minutes I have see stories about how there is little hiring for the holiday season and how there is a glut of homes that have not yet been foreclosed on.
If all you did was read some of the news, you would never buy a stock. In fact, that is exactly the case for many investors, and that is why this market rise has been so stubborn. We just have a huge supply of skeptics out there that provide very strong support.
So the story remains the same -- nothing has changed. The market is in an uptrend, underlying support is very strong, the dip-buyers are ready, willing and able and no matter how many negative stories there are out there, the market just doesn't care right now.
While we might not want to blindly embrace the market, we sure don't want to underestimate its power. It is running over bears and shorts and has left a wake of frustrated bulls who haven't been bullish enough.
This morning we have some mild action and very little news on the wires. The Federal Open Market Committee issues its rate decision this afternoon at 2:15 p.m. EDT. No substantive changes are expected, but the news will give the market some excuses to jump around, so we'll be watching. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: XLNX +7.4%, FUL +5.5%, GIS +4.3%, STX +4.3% (also upgraded to Buy at Deutsche and upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel), SOL +3.1% (also announces 14.4 mln ADS offering), AIR +1.9%... Select financial names showing strength: AIG +2.2% (Traders seek fortune in AIG, a stock once left for dead - WSJ), FRE +2.0%, DB +1.6%, BX +1.6%, C +1.7%... Select casino related names showing strength: MPEL +3.4%, MGM +2.9%, LVS +2.7%, WYNN +1.4%... Select European drug names trading higher: GSK +1.7%, AZN +1.1%, NVS +1.0%... Other news: ASTI +23.6% (announces that it has signed a multi-year direct supply agreement with TurtleEnergy), OPXA +10.4% (triggers milestone payment under recently announced stem cell agreement), BSDM +9.7% (continued strength from yesterday's 100%+surge higher), XTXI +9.0% (continued strength from yesterday's 15%+surge higher), FIX +8.6% (will replace Charlotte Russe Holding in the S&P SmallCap 600), SGMO +6.8% (announces that the FDA has reviewed and accepted an Investigational New Drug application), MPG +4.8% (continued momentum from past two day 50% jump), FRO +4.1% (still checking), ALTR +2.6% (up in sympathy with XLNX), ASIA +2.6% (light volume; to upgrade China mobile business intelligence systems to NG-BASS in Chongqing, Hubei, Jilin and Qinghai), HEV +2.4% (Fisker loan sparks EnerDel hopes - The Indianapolis Star), T +1.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), K +1.0% (up in sympathy with GIS)... Analyst comments: LUV +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Argus), KMX +2.8% (raised to Neutral from Sell by Goldman- DJ), LOW +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FIF -3.4% (light volume), AZO -2.6%... Other news: NPD -15.7% (trading ex dividend), PHH -15.7% (announces $200 mln convertible senior note offering due 2014), DAC -9.3% (announces bank waivers and operations update), INCY -9.0% (announces proposed offering of $250 mln convertible senior notes; announces proposed public offering of 18 mln common shares), ATPG -8.4% (announces it has commenced a 5.3 mln common stock offering; enters into $78 million agreement to sell Gomez Pipelines), AVTR -7.3% (commenced an offering of 1,612,903 shares of common stock), PNNT -7.2% (announces public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock), GDP -6.8% (announces $150 mln convertible notes offering), NXG -4.9% (announces C$100 mln bought deal financing), CPN -4.4% (announced a public secondary offering of 20,000,000 shares of its common stock by Harbinger Capital Partners Master Fund I, Ltd), OPEN -4.3% (prices a ~6.97 mln share common stock offering at $28/share), QGEN -3.7% (announces an offering of new Common Shares of up to 27.5 mln shares of newly issued common shares), FNFG -3.5% (announces $400 mln stock offering), IMA -3.3% (announces offering of $100 million of senior notes due 2016 through a private placement), AMR -3.0% (announces the private offering of $450,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its senior secured notes due 2012), LCC -2.5% (announces the sale of 26,315,790 shares of common stock), RBS -2.2% (still checking), CX -2.1% (prices 1.3 bln Ordinary Participation Certificate offering at $12.50/ADS; offering was increased from 1.2 bln CPOs), FSR -1.8% (filed for a $500 mln mixed shelf offering as well as a ~71.5 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), BRKR -1.7% (prices 13.0 mln common share offering at $9.85/share), AMR -1.7% (prices 48,484,849 common share offering at $8.25/share)... Analyst comments: HERO -4.7% (downgraded to Sell at Jesup & Lamont), HGG -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Janney), WLT -1.8% (downgraded to Market Perform at FBR Capital), SYK -1.7% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wells Fargo), PRU -1.5% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley).
Nagu Erko juba hommikul kirjutas, on täna Föderaalreservi intressimäära otsus. Infoks lihtsalt, et seni on USA aktsiaturud kõik selle aasta Fedi otsuse päevad lõpetanud plussis.
Toornafta on kauplemas 4% madalamal @ 68.8 USD barreli kohta tänu varude raportile, kus mahud kasvasid igas segmendis: Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 2855K (consensus is a draw of 1400K); gasoline inventories had a build of 5409K (consensus is a build of 500K); distillate inventories had a build of 2961K (consensus is a build of 1450K).
Turul täna müüki ka kergelt näha aga nii kui müügisurve kaob tiksutakse tavapäraselt väike käibega ülespoole. Nasdaq-i TRIN püsinud kogu päeva 0.6-0.9 vahemikus. Ja paistab, et siit juba jätkub tavapärane tempo. Up-up and away:)
Toornafta hinna langus ja USD/EUR tugevnemine ei võta ka tugu mõtlema. Ühtlane ost, ost ja veelkord ost. Samas võtab kergelt mõtlema, kui nt: JPM kauplemas 2007 aasta tippude lähedal üle $46, mis indikeerib ka ühtlasi kauplemist üle 51 kordse kasumil ootuses.
Vene ärikanali peal üks analüütik just ütles, et nende fond mängib täna languse peale. Põhjuseks, et nafta juba kukub, aga muu turg tahab mingit tõuget saada. Täna oli lisatud julgelt lühikesi positsioone. Natuke oodata ja näeme, mis venelaste rahakotiga juhtub :)
Selle jaoks oleks vaja mingit katalüsaatorit, et müüjad välja tuleks. Hetkel lihtsalt väikse käibega üles tiksumine. Bid on kogu aeg vastas nagu turg jookseks eest ära. Samas kui keegi suurema koguse turgu lükab tullakse kena spikega alla, mis küll kohe tagasi näritakse. Setup-e on loodud ilusaid, kuid need pole kordagi jätku saanud. Pulliturg, mis pulliturg.
Oleks võinud muidugi arvata, et selle peale keegi vaevub veidikenegi reageerima, aga praegu oleks ilmselt see ka positiivne uudis, kui Cisco otsesõnu kasumihoiatuse annaks.
Morgan Stanley on äsja välja tulnud analüüsiga, kus kiidab Chesapeake Energy't (CHK) ja kinnitab oma 'overweight' soovitust ja $36list hinnasihti. Ettevõte meeldib jätkuvalt ka meile ning on LHV Maailma Pro soovitus. Minu vaieldamatu lemmiklause allolevas lõigus on viimane, millega ka ise kindlasti nõus olen.
Quick comment: We hosted an investor meeting today with CEO Aubrey McClendon. We walked away incrementally more positive as investors continue to gain confidence in i) the 2010 natural gas outlook, ii) CHKs funding strategy, and iii) management’s commitment to stay the course. CHK remains our preferred play on the recovery in natural gas fundamentals. Decreased spending and continued execution on the asset monetization program has improved financial flexibility, exposing shareholders to the potential upside from a recovery in prices in 2010. Despite recent outperformance, relative valuation remains unchallenging.
Ma ei kujuta ettegi, mis võiks selleks katalüsaatoriks osutuda. Turg on selgelt tugevalt üleostetud ja siin kukkumisruumi oleks küll. Päris valusaks võib minna junki meestel. Samas võib siit väikse käibega bidides juba tavaliseks saanud rütmis 1200 punkti mõne aja pärast käes olla:)
