Börsipäev 23.oktoober

Investeerimine
1

Mõned tänast börsipäeva mõjutavad sündmused:

Deutsche Bank upgrades Dow Jones & Co. (DJ 33.58) to Buy from Hold and raises tgt to $39 from $35, after a review of the co's business prospects and a what appears to be a promising 2007, even on conservative assumptions

UBS upgrades Foot Locker (FL 23.00) to Buy from Neutral

BofA upgrades Statoil (STO 25.37) to Buy from Neutral, $28 tgt saying they believe its recent 10% sector underperformance is unwarranted given earnings upside to continued strong oil prices, recovering production growth and high-quality total return potential. The firm says relative to Repsol YPF, Statoil offers superior production growth, earnings momentum, R.O.C.E and cash dividend yield.

Merrill Lynch upgrades Garmin (GRMN 48.95) to Buy from Neutral

Morgan Stanley resumes coverage of Advanced Mico (AMD 20.12) with a Neutral

Goldman upgrades E*Trade (ET 21.85) to Buy from Neutral

Morgan Stanley initiates Toll Brothers (TOL 29.22) with an Overweight

Friedman Billings notes that while the market knocked Arch Coal's (ACI 32.04) stock down due to missing consensus and only contracting a small amount of coal, the firm's 2008 stress test gives them increasing confidence in their improving macro improvement and Arch's ability to capitalize on it. While they would have liked Arch to have contracted more coal heading into 2007, they think it is in a very solid position to pull coal off the market due to its very low fixed cost structure, re-pricing of well-below market coal, and limited met coal production in a weakening international market

ThinkEquity notes that Atheros (ATHR 20.39), ARRIS (ARRS 12.70), and PCTEL (PCTI 10.94) are scheduled to report earnings this week. The firm expects ATHR to report in-line with their estimates, and guide in-line to perhaps slightly above their 4Q estimates, in terms of organic growth. They expect ARRS will report in-line with their estimates, and guide in-line with their Q4 estimates. The firm believes PCTI will report overall results better than their estimates. They believe the co will guide in-line to slightly above their Q4 estimates, in terms of organic growth.

Weight Watchers (WTW) downgraded to Neutral at BofA- tgt $50, saying they now believe WTW could see flat attendance in N. America for the remainder of FY06 and perhaps into FY07. They view this potential as a major set back for the co in its most important market. The firm says channel checks have indicated that total attendance growth remains an issue, despite the warm reception members have shown to the Monthly Pass program.

Toon välja ka Ethan Alleni tulemused. Jaemüüjate kohta pildi saamiseks minu arust päris hea:

Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.53 per share, excluding $0.27 charge, $0.01 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.54; revenues fell 3.4% year/year to $242.8 mln vs the $243.7 mln consensus. CEO comments, "As previously stated, we saw positive trends in September. However, as has been reported by many, the retail environment remains difficult. In addition, sales in the prior year quarter benefited from our initiative to reduce delivery times. While this initiative has been very positive for our clients, it has reduced our forward visibility and made comparisons to the prior year more challenging. As a result, we plan to provide a further update in the coming weeks in order to report whether we believe the trends experienced in September are sustainable throughout the second quarter."

Ford Motor (F) reports in line, will restate earnings from 2001 through Q2 06: Reports Q3 (Sep) loss of $0.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.62);Worldwide Auto Sales fell 6.1% year/year to $32.6 bln vs the $32.56 bln consensus. Co also announces that it "plans to restate previous financial results from 2001 through the second quarter of 2006 to correct the accounting for certain derivative transactions under the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) 133, Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities".

2
Kuna panin WTW kommentaari, siis oleks asjakohane vist lisada ka NTRI kohta tänane arvamusavaldus. Olen ise firma suhtes päris positiivne ning alati on hea teada ootuseid enne tulemusi. Märkimist tasub ka, et näiteks Citigroup on ootamas häid tulemusi, kuid usub, et nagu tavaliselt, müüakse aktsia peale calli alla. Seda soovitavad nad kasutada ostukohana:

Ryan Beck expects NTRI to post "solid 3Q results" in line with or ahead of Street estimates, as well as their estimates. They are comfortable with both their sales and EPS estimates of $137.5 mln and $0.50 and the Street mean of $142.2 mln and $0.52, respectively. For the quarter, they are looking for nearly 206,000 customer adds, which is in line with the co's most recent guidance that called for 205,000+. The firm believes the ramp of men's advertising will likely attract the early adopters in 3Q, resulting in a manageable customer acquisition cost for the period. However, they ultimately believe that the men's C.A.C. will retreat to higher levels beginning in 4Q. They note it is this metric that led to the sizeable sell-off in NTRI shares in the trading days following the last conference call, thus it will remain a major focus of investors. They are looking for a 3Q C.A.C. of $145, which compares with $129 last year. They believe shares are fairly valued at current levels..

Lisaks tuli HAL välja täna tublide tulemustega. Vaadates siiski lähiminevikku, võidakse need negatiivsuse tõttu sektoris alla müüa:
Halliburton beats by $0.04 (28.78 ) : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.58 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.54; revenues rose 18.7% year/year to $5.83 bln vs the $5.52 bln consensus

Friedman Billings notes HAL reported 3Q EPS of $0.58, just shy of their $0.59 forecast but ahead of the street's $0.54 consensus. However, absent an unexpected minority interest loss of $0.02 per share, HAL would have beaten their above-consensus est. Firm says operating income and pretax income were ahead of theirr above-consensus ests. Firm believes all of HAL's operating results look very strong. Furthermore, firm says the clean quarter for KBR, with surprisingly positive energy and chemicals earnings, makes an IPO (as opposed to a spin) of KBR more likely now than after last quarter's operating losses in Nigeria.
3
Forest Labs (FRX) täna eelturul korra üle -6% miinuses ning aktsia siiski vaikselt kosumas. Põhjuseks Replidyne'ga kahasse arendatava põletikuravimi FDA poolne tagasi lükkamine. Uudis ise siin.... Faropenem medoxomili müügiks prognoositakse esimesel aasta ca $80 miljonit. Toode lükkub paari aasta võrra edasi, võrreldes Lexapro müügituludega on see marginaalne, aga siiski taas üks setback.

4
Shark on rõhutamas, et nii karudel kui pullidel on hulk arugmente oma turunägemuse toetamiseks. Mõjuvaima argumendi leidmiseks soovitab ta endalt küsida, et mis võiks olla vastaspoole kõige tugevam trump oma uskumuse toetamiseks. Kinnisilmi karu või pull olemine viib harva õigele teele.

On Keeping an Open Mind
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor10/23/2006
7:50 AM EDT

"I believe in an open mind, but not so open that your brains fall out."

-- Arthur Hays Sulzberger

As the market continues to work steadily higher, the optimistic bulls become even more optimistic and the pessimistic bears become even more negative. Rather than becoming increasingly uncertainty as a move becomes extreme, feelings about how the future might play out tend to become even stronger. Confidence is growing in both camps as the current trend continues.

That phenomenon is not without logic. Markets are cyclical and have a tendency to move from one extreme to the other. Once a move is underway the smart play is to assume it will persist for what seems to be an unreasonable amount of time. The bulls are smart to ride the trend but at the same time technical conditions are extended and the bears have a good argument for a reverse or at least a pause.

The market is currently at one of those junctures where rather than dig in our heels with a particular market view it is very important to keep an open mind and consider both the bullish and bearish scenarios. I'm not going to lay them out here but make sure you understand what the other side is saying. If you are bearish ask yourself what is the best bullish argument and vice versa.

Don't become so committed to a particular opinion of the market that you don't consider alternatives and ignore evidence that conflicts with your thinking.

We have a lot of earnings this week plus the latest FOMC interest rate decision to contend with. There are plenty of catalysts on tap for a strong market move one way or the other.
--------
Ning tänased olulisemad liikujad:

Allapoole avanevad:

Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: NWRE -17% (guidance only), ALDN -11%, SLAB -4.9%, F -3%, ETH -1%... Other News: RDYN -52% (FDA does not approve faropenem), HLIT -3.9% (FBR downgrade to Underperform), INTU -3.6% (Merrill downgrade), BOBJ -2.1% (Barron's article mentions stock as relatively expensive ), TRAD -2.3% (Goldman downgrade), NEOL -2% (downgrades from Baird and Keefe Bruyette), SHPGY -1.6%, ERIC -1.1% (profit taking after strong move last week).

Ülespoole avanevad:

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: CRNT +5.4%, HAS +3.9%, RDCM +3.4%, T+ 1.5%, HAL +1.5%... Other News: CNCT +46% (to be acquired by Stiefel Labs), VVUS +19% (says diet drug effective in Phase 2 trial), MSLV +20% (to be acquired by Oracle), TRBM +17% (announces deal with China Netcom), FLML +5.6% (FDA approves Coreg), LMRA +6.6% (stock has been volatile, extends 400% move last week), VICL +5.1% (extends Friday's 10% move), GRMN +4.8% (Merrill upgrade), SONE +4.5% (announces Dutch auction), PSUN +4.4% (BofA upgrade), ET +2.2% (Goldman upgrade), FL +2.2% (UBS upgrade), MNST +1.6% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money), OS +1.5% (Cramer says he'd be a buyer ahead of its Q3 report), PAYX +1.3% (UBS upgrade), SNDK +1.1% (Matrix upgrade following 20% drop on Friday).
5
F Ford Motor EXPECTS FOURTH-QUARTER OPERATING PERFORMANCE TO BE WEAKER THAN THIRD-QUARTER RESULT
6
Ford vaid -1.5% tulemuste peale miinuses, oleks oodanud küll selliste numbrite peale rohkem. Aga eks ootused seal ka mitte just kõige kõrgemal.
7

Fordilt oodati ikka suhteliselt vähe. Pigem halba üllatust, kui inline. Analüütikud olid enne tekitanud juba väga negatiivse sentimendi. Tegelikult osteti inline tulemuste peale stock pigem natuke üles, prognoosid hirmutasid taas. Kirjutasin ootustest ka enne tulemusi natuke:

Rääkides tulemustest, siis esimese asjana peaks vaatama ootuseid. Analüütikud on oma prognoose kärpinud jubapäris korralikult ning paistab, et kolmandast kvartalist midagi suurt ei oodata. Eelmisel kvartalil oli minu arust finantsteenuste segment see, mis format vee peal hoidis. Sel kvartalil aga finatsteenustelt suurt ei oodata ja kui vaadata rohkem kui 100-protsendilist EBIT langust eelmisel kvartalil, siis on analüütikud juba vägagi pessimistlikud eelseisva osas. See kõik on toonud ka ootused päris madalale. Eelmisel kvartalil tõusis Lõuna Ameerika käive üle 20%, kuid Põhja Ameerika käive kukkus pea 4%. Euroopa käibeosa kukkus veelgi rohkem (Aston-Martini müük võib siin mõju avaldada). Pensionikulud on jäädavalt suur probleem ja seega langes 2005. aastal vaba rahavoog $16.8 miljardilt 1.7 miljardini. Lisaks tõusid eelmisel kvartalil intressikulud üle 10%. Põhja Ameerika müük langeb, konkurents GM ja Toyota poolt sunnib hindu kärpima ja laovarud on suured - marginaalid langevad. Hoiatust ei ole silma jäänud ja kokkuvõttes tundub, et turnaround story on rohkem uskumise küsimus, kuna hetkel valgust tunneli lõpus väga eredalt ei terenda. Firma paistab olevat pannud suure panuse oma Escape mudelile, mis on aga samuti konkurendi omast madalamalt hinnatud ja seega tähendab marginaalide survet. Pipeline on siiski suhteliselt kesine ning ainult kulude kärpimisega on turnaroundi väga raske teha. Ma ei oska küll öelda, mida tulemused toovad, kuid üldine pilt väga hea ei paista. Üldiselt üllatusi ei oodata ja see on tõmmanudootused samuti madalale.Käivet oodatakse $32.03 miljardi peale ja kasumit aktsia kohta 61 senti

8
WMT teatab, et oktoobrikuu müük on siiani ca 1% kõrgemal. See on ikka väga tagasihoidlik näitaja. Võitleme ikka trendi vastu oma negatiivse nägemusega jaemüüjate osas.
9
Jep, F suve põhjadest oluliselt vähem tõusnud ka kui näiteks GM.
10
Oliver, mida arvata WMT tänasest megatõusust? Nagu aru saan, oli suuresti katalüsaatoriks otsus uute poodide rajamist kokku tõmmata - kas kulude kokkuhoid võiks asja tõepoolest atraktiivsemaks muuta, või näeme millalgi lähiajal käibe ja kasumi langust?.
Mul on paraku lühike positsioon lahti ning ootan, kas sulgub üle või alla stopi taset :-/
11
oops, tänud Oliver, pro all juba vastus olemas :-)
12
lauris, kommenteerisime WMT liikumist ka Pro all. Ühest küljest on kulude kokkuhoid hea, kuid tegelikkuses sööb WMT iseenda poodide müüginäitajaid. Minu arust on Capexi tagasihoidlikumaks tõmbamine üks märk sellest, et firmal ei ole lihtsalt kuhugi kasvada enam - vähemalt USAs mitte. Usume siiani, et WMT on nendelt tasemetelt pigem short ning seda näitab ka oktoobrikuise võrreldavate poodide müügi väga tagasihoidlik kasv. Arvan, et see aeg, kus antud näitaja muutub negatiivseks, ei pruugigi väga kaugel olla. WMT-s oli kindlasti ka palju shorte sees juba ning neid kaeti. Jätkuvalt oleme karuse vaatega, kuid kuna tegu osaliselt kauplemisideega, on stopide hoidmine äärmiselt tähtis. Samas sõltub see igaühe valulävest!
13
kristjan, sa ei saa võrrelda F ja GM aktsiate liikumist. GM pole enam endine pärast Kirki.
14
See võitlus GM teemadel on juba igivana, nagu mulle meenub. Side vs Lepik! : )
15
IWM käitub SPY suhtes väga hapult - see ei tähenda head. Breadth on väga halb.
16
shordi turg siis põrgusse.
17
mis mõtted NFLX osas enne tulemusi liiguvad ?
18
jiihaa
millegipärast on analystid alati karusemad kui NFLX enda eesmärgid, lubadused ja tegelikud tulemused
19
just, speedy - järelturul käis NFLX ära ka üle 26 USD juba ehk ca 15%.
20
Oliver, jäemüüjate suhtes ehk pisut vara lühikest nägemust võtta:
RTH - bullish, the retail sector will generally top out towards the end of November during the holiday.