Kvartalitulemuste avaldamine on täies hoos, enne turgu teatavad oma tulemused teiste seas: AT&T (T), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Ford (F), Manpower (MAN), McDonald’s (MCD), Philip Morris (PM), UPS (UPS) ja US Airways (LCC). Peale turgude sulgemist tulevad tulemustega Amazon (AMZN), American Express (AXP), Baidu (BIDU), Broadcom (BRCM), Microsoft (MSFT) ja Sunpower (SPWRA).
Makroandmetest avaldatakse kell 15.30 viimase nädala töötute abirahade taotlejate arv. Konsensus ootab numbriks 577 tuhat, eelmiste nädalate jõudsat vähenemist vaadates võib see arv ka väiksem olla. Kell 17 tehakse teatavaks olemasolevate majade juunikuu annualiseeritud müüginumbrid, konsensuse ootus 4.83 miljonit.
Turg on jätkuvalt tugev, S&P 500 käis eile läbi ka eelmisest tipust, kuid päev lõpetati sellest madalamal. Aasia on hommikul valdavalt rohelises kaubelnud, suurtest turgudest kõige enam on plussis Hong Kong (+2.5%).
FT kirjutab, et eilsed Wells Fargo & Morgan Stanley tulemused kinnitavad kasvavaid probleeme USA ärikinnisvara turul:
The disappointing second-quarter results for two of the largest lenders and investors in office, retail and industrial property across the US confirmed investors’ fears that commercial real estate would be the next front in the financial crisis after the collapse of the housing market.
Morgan Stanley kirjutas maha $700 mln dollarit oma $17 mld dollari suurusest ärikinnisvara portfellist & ettevõtte CFO ütles: “…he did not see the light “at the end of the commercial real estate tunnel yet”
Wells Fargo hapude ärikinnisvara laenude osakaal hüppas teises kvartalis 69% & panga CFO ütles: “The commercial real estate market is soft, and most of the big banks are seeing the same kind of thing”
Ärikinnisvara hinnad on tipust kukkunud 35%. Bernanke kinnitas eile, et langevad ärikinnisvara hinnad & probleemsete laenude kasvav osakaal on USA majanduse taastumisele raske väljakutse.
Nagu tulemuste hooaja ülevaatest võib näha, lainetab bottom line veerus roheline meri. SP500 ettevõtetest on viiendik oma tulemuse avaldanud, kelle ärikasum on Standard & Poor's andmete järgi keskmiselt 10% ootustest kõrgemaks jäänud, samal ajal küll eelmise aastaga võrreldes 30% võrra vähenedes. Reaktsioon tulemustele on seevastu olnud valdavalt negatiivne. Nüüdseks on juba aru saadud, et ootust lööva kasumi taga on firma efektiivsem juhtimine ning sestab vajatakse kindlustunnet ka müügitulude paranemise osas, mis veenaks investoreid kasumikasvu jätkusuutlikkuses.
Kasumi ja tulude löömisest on ka Bespoke Investment teinud kokkuvõtte:
In the first chart below, we have updated the numbers to include today's reports. As shown, the beat rate increased a bit more today up to 72.3%. The highest beat rate we've seen since 2001 was 73% in Q3 '06, so this quarter definitely has a shot to top that.
But while the bottom line numbers are coming in much better than expected, top line numbers have been weak. In the second chart below, we highlight the revenue beat rate so far this earnings season. Of the US companies that have reported revenues, only 49.1% have come in better than expected. While almost everything about this earnings season has been positive so far (including stock market performance), the revenue numbers are one area where things still look pretty bad.
Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.21 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.27 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.48); revenues fell 33.8% year/year to $27.2 bln vs the $24.76 bln consensus. Based on its current planning assumptions, Ford has sufficient liquidity to fund its product-led transformation plan and provide a cushion against the uncertain global economic environment. In addition, Ford will continue to pursue actions to improve its balance sheet.
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/23/2009 8:21 AM EDT
What is without periods of rest will not endure.
-- Ovid
The good news is that earnings reports continue to be quite strong. Ford (F) , eBay (EBAY) , Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) , VMware (VMW) and quite a few others are putting up some solid numbers. The bad news is that the indices continues to become quite extended and in need of consolidation.
The trouble with a strong market is that it doesn't offer easy opportunities for entry. When the buyers are active, you aren't going to see nice gentle pullbacks that allow you to gracefully load up and ride the uptrend.
This market has been particularly tricky since we took off following the Goldman (GS) and Intel (INTC) earnings news. We have barely paused, and the earnings news continues to be quite upbeat.
We have another big round of earnings tonight, the most notable of which is from Microsoft (MSFT) , and given that we have had so little disappointment, anticipation of more of the same is likely to hold us steady.
Most of the major earnings reports will be over after Microsoft reports. There will be many more secondary reports to come, but the major market-movers will be out of the way, with a few exceptions such as Cisco (CSCO) . Reports have obviously been far better than anticipated, and while much of the upside has been due to cost-cutting and containment of expenses rather than revenue growth, it is certainly better than the alternative. Companies have shown that they know how to deal with tough times by adapting. They are still going to need to show that they can grow business at some point, but producing a solid bottom line is good enough for now.
I've been complaining for a few days now that the market has gone up so far so fast that there are few unextended charts. Nothing has changed this morning, and the good earning news isn't providing any convenient excuse for profit-taking.
In a market like this, you have to respect the trend and remember that they often continue far longer than we feel is reasonable. That doesn't mean you have to load up and throw caution to the wind, but you should be wary about anticipating a sudden and complete reversal. Markets that are as strong as this one have been tend to stay sticky to the upside. The folks who have been underinvested offer plenty of underlying support, as they are inclined to buy weakness rather aggressively because they are tired of missing out.
Making new buys here is not easy at all, but we'll keep on looking for situations where the charts aren't too extended. However, until the market consolidates a bit more, you are going to have to chase if you really want to add some long exposure.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ISRG +16.0% (also upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), CCMP +15.9%, TBI +13.8% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), SPF +11.9%, AFFX +10.5% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), AATI +9.6% (light volume), TUP +9.3%, CELG +9.2%, EBAY +9.0% (also upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital), VMW +8.3% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham), FITB +8.1%, TQNT +7.4%, CYMI +7.0%, NVEC +7.0%, NIHD +6.6%, F +6.6%, FFIV +6.1% (also upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), ESI +4.4%, SPAR +4.3%, EMC +4.1%, STLD +3.7%, CS +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), BMY +3.5%, EQIX +3.4%, PLD +3.4%, ETFC +2.9%, T +2.9%, KMB +2.5%, MMM +2.4%, RAI +2.0%, SKX +1.5%, MOS +1.5%, ZMH +1.5%... M&A news: MEDX +88.9% (Bristol-Myers Squibb to acquire Medarex for $16.00/share in cash)... Select metals/mining names showing strength: HMY +2.2%, RTP +2.1%, GOLD +1.9%, BHP +1.6%, SLV +1.6%... Other news: SAY +9.6% (still checking), ARM +6.0% (ArvinMeritor and Navistar announce long-term supply agreement), PDLI +5.8% (still checking), ALVR +4.3% (announced that it has agreed with Nokia Siemens (NOK) to expand the existing OEM agreement), HBC +3.2% (up in sympathy with CS), WU +2.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), OXY +1.4% (announces 'significant' California oil and gas discovery)... Analyst comments: SANM +11.1% (upgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), ANN +6.9% (raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), WFR +4.3% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CRA -15.5% (also downgraded to Market PErform at Leerink), PSUN -14.7%, TEX -9.4%, BPFH -9.2%, FLIR -8.9%, LOGI -8.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CTXS -6.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham and downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), SNDK -5.7% (also downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at ThinkEquity), CPTS -5.7%, OMTR -5.1%, NTGR -5.0%, VDSI -4.2%, QCOM -4.1% (also downgraded to Underperform at Charter Equity), ISIL -4.1%, CMG -4.0%, WIRE -3.5%, DHR -3.4%, STM -3.3%, UPS -3.0% (light volume), POT -3.0%, HBAN -2.6%, MCD -2.5%, MOS -2.4%, PNC -2.1%, BCR -1.9% (light volume; also downgraded to Neutral at Piper), EXPO -1.3% (light volume)... Other news: CTIC -15.3% (prices 29,332,107 common shares at $1.30/share), FREE -15.1% (prices 8,731,436 common share offering at $1.80/share), MCO -10.3% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses in Schedule 13D they have reduced stake in co to 16.98% from 20.36%), RT -4.8% (prices 10.0 mln common share offering at $6.75/share), OREX -4.5% (announces proposed 9,000,000 shares public offering of common stock), EDR -4.3% (announces pricing of common stock offering at $4.35), MHP -2.9% (down in sympathy with MCO), DRE -1.7% (announces increase in number of authorized shares of common stock to 400 mln from 250 mln)... Analyst comments: RHT -1.6% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), ARO -1.5% (removed from Americas Buy list at Goldman- Reuters), CMO -1.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette).
30,000 to 554,000. Economists were expecting claims to rise to 550,000 from the upwardly revised 524,000 claims in the prior week (allikas: thomsonreuters).
Initial Claims 554K vs 557K consensus, prior revised to 524K from 522K, Continuing Claims fall to 6.22 mln from 6.31 mln
Economic Data Reviews: Initial Claims Still Filled with Noise
Initial claims for the week ended July 18 jumped 30,000 to 554,000. The consensus estimate stood at 557,000 so the increase was expected. The latest figure left the four-week moving average at 566,000, which is down from 585,000 in the prior week.
Continuing claims for the week ended July 11 fell 88,000 to 6.225 mln. That was the second straight decline for this series and it brought the four-week moving average to 6.54 mln from 6.67 mln.
The market didn't show much reaction to the data since it recognizes it is still filled with noise as the Labor Department sorts out its seasonal adjustment factors to account for the layoffs in the auto industry that occurred earlier than normal. In turn, it hasn't been lost on the market that the initial claims total is still uncomfortably high and ensures we will see another big drop in nonfarm payrolls in the July employment report
The improving trend in continuing claims, meanwhile, isn't being taken at face value (nor should it be) as a hallmark of an improvement in hiring activity. Instead it is seen as a head fake of sorts based on the notion that a number of claimants are dropping out of the computation after having exhausted their unemployment benefits.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.1%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.1%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.0%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.9%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.0%
Venemaa MICEX +1.8%
Poola WIG +1.2%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.7%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.0%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.0%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.4%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.0%
Tai Set 50 +2.7%
India Sensex 30 +2.6%