Börsipäev 22. september

Investeerimine
1

Kuigi otseselt uut võlakirjade ostuprogrammi FOMC eile ei avalikustanud, anti nüüd selgemalt märku, et vajadusel ollakse seda valmis tegema ning turud võtsid sellest esimese hooga ka kinni. Huvitav oli just kommentaar inflatsiooni osas, mis vabaturukomitee arvates jääb hetkel soovitust madalamaks, indikeerides et kui deflatsiooni oht peaks edasi suurenema, ei kõhelda printerit uuesti vooluvõrku ühendada. USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,3% kõrgemal.

Jaapanlasi teeb USA keskpanga sõnum pigem murelikuks, kuna järjekordse kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise võimalik materialiseerumine nõrgestas dollarit muude valuutade, kaasaarvatud jeeni suhtes, mis täna hommikul kaupleb madalaimal tasemel pärast valuutainterventsiooni 15. septembril.

Makro kalender jääb täna võrdlemisi õhukeseks. Euroopas võib suuremat huvi pakkuda Inglise keskpanga septembri kohtumise protokoll, USA-s aga FHFA majade hinnaindeks (kl 17.00).

2
EUR/USD läbis 1,3335 taseme, mis oli augusti alguses saavutatud tipuks. Uueks tipuks on hetkel jõutud 1,3380 tasemeni, kus kaubeldi viimati aprillis.
3
Inglismaa keskpank jättis intressimäära 0.5% peale ning külmutas praegu 200 mld naelase varade ostuprogrammi.
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Peale Fed-i avaldust, mille kohaselt ollakse vajadusel valmis sekkuma riigi majanduse taastumise kiirendamisse, teeb kullafutuur uusi tippe, kaubeldes üle $1,290.00 taseme.

5
10-yr tips yield hits record low of 0.652%
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Nii nagu viitas Saksamaa oodatust suurem langus juulikuu tööstustoodangu numbrites, on momentum prognoositust kiiremini kadumas ka terves eurotsoonis

Industrial orders in the 16-nation euro zone fell 2.4% in July, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported Wednesday. Compared to July 2009, orders were up 11.2%. Economists had forecast a 1.6% monthly fall and a 16.3% year-on-year increase. June orders rose on the month by a revised 2.4% and increased 22.7% compared to the same month last year.

Riigipõhiste admetega saab lähemalt tutvuda siin

7

Gapping down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ADBE -21.1% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, downgraded to Hold from Buy at ThinkEquity, downgraded to Mkt Perform at FBR Capital, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, downgraded to Hold from Buy at ISI Group, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), PMCS -7.6%, JEF -6.0%, DRI -2.2%, EBAY -1.8% (said it expects its third quarter 2010 results to be near the high end of the guidance provided on July 21).

Select financial related names showing weakness: HIG -4.2%, STD -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), RBS -1.8%, HBC -1.3% (reports out overnight that the CEO has threatened to quit if not appointed Chairman), GS -1.1%, PRU -1.0%.

Other news: VICL -35.2% (Sanofi-Aventis announced that the Phase III TAMARIS trial evaluating the investigational angiogenic therapy NV1FGF did not meet its primary endpoint), FUR -8.7% (prices offering of 5 mln common shares of beneficial interest at a public offering price of $12.25 per share), SFI -8.0% (continued weakness following yesterdays drop in reports the co is preparing for bankruptcy filing), SQNM -7.8% (files $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering ), ARE -4.2% (commences underwritten public offering of 4 mln shares of common stock), ENTG -4.0% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), ELN -3.8% (BIIB's partner for Tysabri), BIIB -3.4% (makes statement about U.S. FDA approval of Gilenya; expects a significant drop in net new patients on Tysabri), MKSI -2.6% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), AMR -2.6% (disclosed updated fuel forecast and hedging positions), MSFT -0.6% (increases quarterly dividend by 23%; board authorized up to $6 bln in incremental commercial paper and longer-term debt).

Analyst comments: AMTD -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), SOHU -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna).

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CDCS +6.2% (thinly traded, ticking higher), ALOG +4.4%.

M&A news: MAJC +77.3% (to be acquired by Bayside Capital Partners for $0.45 per share in cash).

Select metals/mining stocks seeing continued strength after gold made new all-time highs yesterday: NGD +2.5%, NG +2.3%, KGC +1.9%, GSS +1.8%, AUY +1.6%, EGO +1.5%, BBL +1.5%, BHP +1.4%, RTP +1.4%, SLW +1.3%, MT +1.3%, GDX +0.9%, GOLD +0.6%, GLD +0.4%.

Other news: BRT +16.5% (intends to commence tender offer to repurchase up to 2.5 mln of its shares of beneficial interest at $6.30/share), OGXI +11.4% (publishes data from randomized Phase 2 custirsen trial ), BQI +9.8% (Oilsands Quest to Pursue Sale of Non-core Assets ), SEED +9.4% (reaches worldwide agreement for Bt Gene ), SAY +8.5% (still checking), CLGX +3.4% (Cramer recommends buying the stock as a housing play - CNBC), PWER +3.3% (authorizes 10 mln share repurchase program; authorized for two years and effective immediately).

Analyst comments: VVUS +6.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity).

8

Deutsche alandab mitme panga Q3 kasumiprognoose ja seda üpris märkimisväärselt...

Deutsche Bank cut their Q3 ests on Morgan Stanley (MS) to $0.15 from $0.50 (Consensus is $0.49) and cut their Q3 ests on Goldman (GS) to $1.95 from $3 (consensus is $3.22).

9

Rev Shark: Keep Your Mind Limber
09/22/2010 7:43 AM

"If you ain't just a little scared when you enter a casino, you are either very rich or you haven't studied the games enough."

-- VP Pappy

The upside momentum cooled on Tuesday, but the bulls did a good job of keeping the uptrend intact. The FOMC interest rate decision, which was unsurprising, was a good opportunity for a sell-the-news reaction, but the bears are afraid that the Fed is going to blast us with quantitative easing.

Fighting the Fed's printing press is probably not a very good investment approach, but we have been pricing in QE II for a while, and there is no clue when the program might start and/or how aggressive the Fed might be. All we really know is that the Fed believes that economics conditions are still bad enough that they may need to employ this tool. Liquidity will overpower many negatives, but at this point, it is theory and hope, and that may not be enough to keep the market running.

The big positive for the market at this point is that we broke out of the very obvious resistance level at 1,130 on the S&P 500 and are holding above it. That means that the uptrend is intact and we have some good downside support. Market players are feeling pretty complacent right now, and there doesn't seem to be much fear in the air.

In addition to complacency, the biggest negative for the market right now is that we are technically extended. We have gone up pretty much in a straight line since the first of the month and have not consolidated at all along the way. There are some very nicely sized recent profits to protect, and if we start to weaken, some market players are going to lock in those gains and sit on the sidelines for a little while.

So far, the fact that September has historically been the weakest month of the year has just been a misleading statistic, but according to SentimenTrader.com, we are now at the point in the historically weakest month that tends to be the weakest. It is very important not to put too much focus on seasonality as it is a tendency and not a certainty, but it can produce a little extra push if it does kick in.

I'm inclined to be quite cautious here. While we still have some pockets of momentum, finding stocks that aren't extended and are offering good entry points is extremely difficult. Yesterday a number of the leaders cooled off, and with the Fed out of the way, there aren't any major news drivers.

I never look to be overly anticipatory, but as the market goes straight up, my style of making partial sales into strength tends to gradually raise my cash level. After some sales on the Fed news yesterday, I'm sitting with quite a bit of cash.

The market still looks fine technically, and I'll be happy to make some buys if I see technical setups that I like, but it is going to take some digging. If we breach the 1,130 level, I'll be looking for the bears to push and for some short side plays to develop, but the dip-buyers are likely to be stubborn on the first pullback attempts.

It is a mixed situation with momentum a bit long in the tooth but no real technical flaws to cause a rush for the exits. Stay flexible and opportunistic, and we'll likely be able to find some good trades.

10
Blockbuster will file for bankruptcy, according to CNBC
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Euroopa turud:

Saksamaa DAX -0,66%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,71%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,02%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1,67%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,77%
Venemaa MICEX -0,13%
Poola WIG -0,41%

Aasia turud:

Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,37%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0,21%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) suletud
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) suletud
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq suletud
Tai Set 50 +1,02%
India Sensex 30 -0,30%

12
Bloomberg TV reports Treasury Secretary Geithner says TARP investment returns reach $225 bln
13
Ehk siis USA maksumaksjad on teeninud $225 bn?
14
Federal Housing Finance Agency teatas, et USA majade hinnad kukkusid juulis mom 0.5% ning yoy 3.3%. Juuni hinnalangus korrigeeriti 1.2% peale 0.3% pealt. Alates 2007. aasta tipust on FHFA majahinna indeks langenud 13.8%
15
Fed purchases $2.07 bln of treasuries set to mature in 2013/2014; dealers looked to give back $20.49 bln
Kas nüüd kaob turul ka tugi?
16
Investorite huvi Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) aktsia vastu on viimasel ajal olnud väga tugev ja aktsia hind on liigutatud ajaloolistesse tippudesse. Huvitav asjaolu selle juures on VP Valentine H Brian agressiivne aktsiate müük. VP müüs 54000 aktsiat $ 8052008 eest, mis teeb keskmiseks müügihinnaks ~149 aktsia kohta.
17
Moody's changes retail industry sector outlook to stable from positive on belief that EBIT growth of U.S. Retail Industry will slow to modest low single digit pace over current levels for next 12-18 months
18
Microsoft: CNBC guest, from JP Morgan, says they are hearing tha the MSFT offering is "atleast twice over subscribed"
19
Mitsubishi Asset Management avaldas täna huvitava prognoosi. Nimelt langeb analüüsimaja sõnul USA 10-aastase võlakirjaa tulususe määr käesoleva aasta lõpuks 1.75%le. Nende sõnul otsustab Föderaalreserv järgmisel kohtumisel (2. kuni 3. november) suurendada rahapakkumist. Sama väidet on kinnitanud ka näiteks RBC Capital Markets ja Goldman Sachs.
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Alari, kellest jutt?