Täna on oodata nn suure raha reaktsiooni eilsele intressimäära tõstmise otsusele, futuurid indikeerivad igatahes kergelt negatiivsele päeva algusele. Nafta hind on tõusnud 47 dollarini barreli eest ning oodatakse USA naftareservide statistikat.
Eastman Kodak (EK) ootab viimaseks kvartaliks kasumit vahemikku 1,71 kuni 2,01 dollarit aktsia kohta. Filmitootja ootab 2007. aastani aastakasvuks 7-8%. Traditsiooniline tegevusala käive on kiirelt kahanemas, kuid seda kompenseerib digitaaltehnoloogia revolutsioon. Aktsia on eelturul üle 3% plussis.
Deutsche Bank alandas võrgutootja Cisco (CSCO) reitingut "hoia" peale, lisaks alandati lõppeva kvartali müügikasvu 2 protsendilt 1 protsendile ja kasumiprognoosi sendi võrra 20 sendile aktsia kohta.
Vodafone (VOD) teatas, et on jõuluks turule tulemas 10 uut 3G telefoni, mis peaksid tähendama selle tehnoloogia laiemat jõudmist Euroopa turule. Motorola (MOT) telefone on nende seas kolm, Nokia telefone vaid üks.
Rev Shark:
With the FOMC interest rate decision now out of the way and the start of earnings season still a couple weeks off, the easy gains are over. We are at a junction now where further upside moves will require the bulls to be persistent and vigorous in their buying.
The six-week bounce has given the bulls momentum as the bears are continually squeezed and the folks with cash on the sidelines worry about being left behind. One of the major positives for the bulls has been the persistent skepticism that has created the proverbial "wall of worry" that we have been scaling nicely.
However, the higher we go the more difficult the climb becomes and the tougher and more persistent the bulls must be if they are going to produce another leg upward. One of the most positive aspects of the recent action has been the very strong breadth. There was better than 2 gainers for every decliner yesterday, which shows that buyers are not just focusing on a small group of stocks to drive the market. Volume, however, was just average and that undermines breadth to some degree.
The key to this market, as is so often the case, is technology stocks. The second half of the recent rally was mainly produced by a "the bad news is already fully priced in" rally in semiconductors. There is nothing wrong with a move of that sort but at some point the stocks need to have actual good news and not just news that could have been worse. The semiconductor HOLDR (SMH:AMEX) has to hold above the 32 mark and the QQQ needs to crack its 200-day simple moving average at 35.81 in order to take out overhead resistance. A failure to do so should bring in buyers.
We have a downgrade of Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) this morning by Deutsche Bank because of the analyst's concerns about sales in North America. We'll have to watch this stock closely to see if those worries gain some traction.
The bulls have some hard work ahead of them if they are going to keep this move going. The FOMC interest rate decision is the sort of news that can easily trigger profit-taking and given that we are heading into the peak earnings warning season and the weakest time period seasonally, there are some tough hurdles to surmount.
We have a negative open on the way as the news flow is a bit negative. Overseas markets were mostly lower in Asia because of higher oil prices and mixed in Europe as technology was higher but consumer staples remain a problem.
Stay extra vigilant: We are on the cusp of a turning point in this market.
Gary B. Smith:
