Briefing.com tehniline meeskond usub tõusu jätkumisse, kuid nende arvates võib see olla ebaühtlane peale sellist põrget. Eilne ralli oli pigem korrektsioon mitte tõus uutele tippudele. 15/16. märtsi tipud on briefingu arvates tehniliselt tähtsad toetustasemed. Jälgige käivet.
WSJ kirjutab täna pangandussektorist, viidates regionaalpankadele, mis on andnud laenusid ehitusfirmadele. Välja tuuakse Colonial BancGroup Inc (CNB), mis tegutseb Florida turul ja on sealset kohalolekut veelgi suurendanud. Firma laenudest oli 41% ehitusturul ja sellest pool majadeehitajatele laenatud. Floridas on toimumas üks suurimaid hinnalangusi kinnisvaraturul. Lisaksin siia juurde, et sarnased probleemid on kummitanud ka laenukindlustajaid - PMI, RDN, MTG. MTG ja RDN on samuti esindatud päris suurelt California ja Florida turgudel (MTG on väiksema avatusega sub-prime turule, kuid loss-ratio on tõusnud viimasel kvartalil). Viimastel võivad probleemid veel ees seista, kuid kaubeldakse P/E ja P/BV ajalooliste põhjade lähedal.
Briefing.com pakub artikli lühikokkuvõtte: The Wall Street Journal reports as the outlook for home builders grows grimmer, regional banks that extended loans to construction companies could start having some costly regrets. Colonial BancGroup (CNB) is among the banks most heavily exposed to the Florida construction market. Colonial, with more than 300 branches, lent far more to construction borrowers as a percentage of its so-called core capital last year than recommended by FDIC guidelines. Colonial's construction-lending ratio is 413% of core capital -- a measure of a bank's financial strength -- compared with the FDIC's minimum threshold guideline of 100%, according to FDIC data. "If you have more than twice as many loans on your books as your liquidation value, then you're essentially just waiting for the vultures to swoop in," says Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist for RightSide Advisors. Mr. Suttmeier says he doesn't own Colonial's shares. What is more worrying is the geographic concentration of Colonial's loan portfolio. At least 55% of its total loans are in Florida, which analysts say is undergoing one of its worst housing recessions ever.
Eile tõmbas Motorola taas oma prognoose alla, mis põhimõtteliselt ei olnud enam üllatus. Juhtkond viitab suurtele varudele ning probleemid tootevaliku osas ei leia ilmselt veel niipea lahendust. Vahetatakse välja mõningad juhtfiguurid. Citigroup usub, et Samsung on võtmas oma osa vanadel turgudel ning Nokia sööb Motorola lõunat arenevatel turgudel.
Citigroup: As Expected, Motorola Stumbles In 1Q07➤ MOT pre-announced 1Q results, showing a loss in their handset business.➤ It looks like Motorola's competitors are attacking the company now that it isdistressed. We think that Samsung is hurting them in the mature markets andNokia in the emerging ones. This is the biggest surprise of the quarter.➤ Because of the fixed cost associated with the handset biz, share losses can havethe same type of impact on margins in the short-term as price cuts.➤ Mgmt noted that they have some inventory issues, revolving around the KRZRand C-series devices. Inventories will not be cleaned up until the end of 1H.➤ We lower our estimate after the preannouncement.We also change our pricetarget from $22 to $20 based on our lowered EPS estimate. We reiterate ourHold recommendation on the stock with a High Risk rating.
RBC downgrades Motorola (MOT 18.74) to Sector Performer from Outperformer
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