Börsipäev 22. mai

Investeerimine
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Bofa alustab Black & Decker (BDK) katmist "müü" reitinguga ja hinnasihiga $85. Peamisteks põhjusteks on langev kinnisvaraturg ning sellega seoses ka kulutused majade ehitamisele/remondile.

Analüüsimaja usub, et BDK käive tõuseb 2007. aastal 1% ja langeb 2% 2008. aastal, mis on tunduvalt madalamal juhtkonna pikaajalise orgaanilise kasvu eesmärgist 3-5% ja konsensusest. Tuleb tõdeda,et juhkond on juba korra investorite ees lähiajal eksinud. Lisaks kaupleb ettevõte pea 20-protsendilisepreemiaga ajalooliste kordajate suhtes, mis ei ole Bofa arvates praeguste riskide juures õigustatud.

Bofa tõmbab alla 2007. ja 2008. aasta kasumiprognoose ning usub, et jahtumine remondi ja remodelleerimisturulon alles alanud. We believe a majority of the weakness in existing home sales (expect 8% and 13% decline in 2007 and '08, respectively) and prices lie ahead. Decreased home sales would likely lead to less remodeling spending since most new homeowners remodel within the first 12 months. In addition, when prices decline, homeowners have less equity to cash out and feel less secure spending money on their home. We think industry remodeling spending will fall 6% in 2007 and 14% in '08.

Kui Blue Nile (NILE) on näidanud äärmiselt ilusaid tulemusi, siis Zale (ZLC) on firma mis on jäänud esimesele ja Amazonile (AMZN) jalgu ning seetõttut eeninud ära lühikeseksmüüjate silmis päris kõrge koha. Tänased tulemused paistavad küll pigem analüütikutele üllatuseks olevat, kuid ettevõtte prognoosid kinnitavad taaskord probleeme jaemüügis ja naguke käivad käsikäes ka eelnenud BDK kommentaaridega.

Ms. Burton continued, "We believe retail in general is showing signs of weakness, and higher gas prices have directly impacted the discretionary income of the moderate customer. Given these overall macro trends, we are lowering our sales projections and, while cautious, we are maintaining our current earnings guidance for fourth quarter."

The Company projects a fourth quarter comparable store sales decrease of 2% to 3% and GAAP earnings per share in the range of ($0.11) to ($0.15).

Credit Suisse upgrades RHT to Outperform from Neutral and raises their tgt to $27 from $25 saying field checks suggest that bookings/billings growth should remain healthy and could accelerate in the second half of the year as field execution and the JBoss business unit improves. The firm says their current cash flow forecast embeds fairly conservative assumptions, and if some of the changes to the business yield more positive results they could see a gradual increase in estimates throughout the year.

Bear Stearns upgrades MGM Mirage (MGM 62.95) to Outperform from Peer Perform

Stifel upgrades Citrix Systems (CTXS 31.23) to Buy from Hold and a $39 tgt based primarily that the recent pullback in the shares creates a more attractive risk/reward for the shares looking out over the next 12 months. The firm believes on driver of the recent pullback in the shares has been some concern about CTXS canceling participation in two investor conferences, the firm says they spoke with the co regarding this issue and they are comfortable that this is reflective of executive scheduling conflicts

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Veidi vähem kui 2 kuud tagasi, 27. märtsil alustasime kiire majanduskasvuga riigi - Poola - aktsiaturgude vahendamist LHV klientidele. Täna kirjutasin LHV Pro all ka lühikese ülevaate mõnest sealsel turul noteeritud ettevõttest ning vahendasin ka Deutsche Banki nägemust. Soovitan kindlasti üle vaadata.
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Tänane quote Sharki kommentaaris on väga hea. aga sisust lühidalt - väikeinvestoritel on võimalus kergemini oma positsioone ümber mängida, suurtel fondidel seda luksust pole. Kuna meedias liiguvad aga ringi lood mädaneval vundamendil seisvast kinnisvara turust koos ülejäänud karuliste argumentidega, kiputakse ehk liiga kauaks kõrvalvaatajaks jääma või voolule vastassuunalisi panuseid tegema. Jah, väikeinvestoril on võimalus kiiresti enda positsioone ümber mängida, kuid tihtipeale ei ole kõigil selleks külma närvi, kui aeg seda nõuab.

Investors Face Principle Dilemma

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/22/2007 8:22 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

"In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." --Thomas Jefferson

The dilemma all investors face is to what degree to formulate and stick to a market thesis in the fact of a market that is acting in a contrary manner. Do we stand by our principals because we are convinced by the logic of our thinking? Or do we bow to the power of the mob and go with the flow? To a great extent it is matter of style.

For big-picture thinkers looking to catch trends that play out over the course of months or years, timing need not be that precise. However there has to be recognition that the market can persist in ignoring our thinking for very long periods of time. The easiest way for the big-picture investor to get in trouble is to fail to appreciate that the market may move in illogical fashion long enough to put them in a deep, dark hole.

Being right about the market is cold comfort if your timing is too far off. Eventually you may benefit but the lost profits in the interim and the amount of work it takes to return to even are a very high price to pay.

For the small investor with greater flexibility the big-picture approach to the market is generally a poor choice. The big advantage the average individual investor has is the ability to be flexible and to more quickly as conditions change. It is easy for the smaller investor to go with the flow since he can change his posture so fast.

Unfortunately because of the prevalence of big-picture market commentary in the media many investors feel the compulsion to be highly anticipatory with their investing. They hear about the rotten real-estate market and high gasoline prices and are convinced that the rally has to end badly at some point.

It will indeed, but it's the timing that is the key. As many have already learned, if you act too quickly on that thinking you will be greatly frustrated as the market fails to cooperate. What we need to do as flexible individual investors is to respect the current trend, understand the macro arguments against its continuation and be ready to act only when there are signs that the market mood is actually changing and that prices are starting to struggle.

The individual investor should always be looking for hard proof to back up a big picture thesis before he makes his moves. That can be awfully difficult when the market seems as overheated as this one has been lately but being a growling bear without some price action to back you up is a tough way to make a buck.

We have a quiet start this morning. Overseas markets are mixed, oil is down, gold is up and not much news on the wires.
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British Petrol sai täna A.G Edwardsilt downgrade’I ja uueks soovituseks ‘hoia’. Sellise sammu põjendusena toodi ära restruktureerimisega seotud ohud ning avatus Venemaa meelevalla suhtes.

Goldman Sachs alandab aasta tippude läheduses kaupleva terasesektori soovituse neutraalse peale.

Ülespoole avanevad:

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: PSUN +6.5%, ASEI +4.4%... Casino stocks seeing strength following Tracinda/MGM negotiations: MGM +24.1%, BYD +7.0%, WYNN +4.9%, LVS +3.9%... Mortgage-related stocks moving following FMT developments: FMT +50.6%, NFI +9.9%, LEND +9.4%, IMH +6.6%, AHM +3.9%... Other news: AVNC +20.9% (announces FDA acceptance of Amoxicillin Pulsys NDA), OXPS +6.7% (continued momentum following yesterday's 7% move higher on takeover rumors), EMU +4.9% (light volume, broker comments out of Canada discussed potential sale of co), TSS +4.5% (mentioned by Cramer next co that could be bought), DNDN +4.5% (continuation of strength from yesterday afternoon), STM +2.5% (STM, INTC and Francisco Partners to create a new independent semiconductor co), CTSH +1.8% (positive comments from tier-1 firm).

Allapoole avanevad:

Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: KONG -16.2%, GSOL -7.1%, GIGM -5.5%, APOL -4.1%, SPLS -3.2%, NTES -2.4%... Other news: OMTR -7.1% (announces a 6.8 mln share common stock offering), ACW -6.3% (files for a 5.4 mln share common stock secondary offering by selling shareholders), HRAY -4.9%, ONT -3.5% (announces acquisition of Hantro Products), DYN -3.8% (Chevron to sell Dynegy shares), MNST -2.9% (tier-1 firm suggesting sale of co may be less likely), SSL -2.7% (gives project update for Oryx gas-to-liquids venture).
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NOAA prognoosib (jätkuvalt), et 2007. aasta suvi ja sügis võivad kujuneda keskmisest orkaanirohkemaks.

As mentioned in precious headlines, experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year—showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. "For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher..." An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.