Buck the Trend by Not Bucking the Trend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/22/2008 8:18 AM EDT
Disappointment is a sort of bankruptcy -- the bankruptcy of a soul that expends too much in hope and expectation.
-- Eric Hoffer
All the major earnings reports last night have been disappointing. Apple (AAPL) , American Express (AXP) , Texas Instruments (TXN) , Merck (MRK) and Wachovia (WB) are all trading down sharply this morning after issuing their second-quarter reports.
Part of the problem is that the recent relief rally in financials has eased fears and raised expectations a bit. Market players were once again anxious to embrace the idea that things weren't really that bad and that maybe the worst was over. Unfortunately, the reality, as AXP made quite clear, is that there are some major problems with this economy and we have a long way to go before we have fully discounted them.
I am sometimes accused of being overly negative about the market, but my message remains the same. Don't overanticipate the end of the current downtrend. We are in a bear market, and the major indices are trending down. Yes, we do get some bounces and rallies, which are tradable in the short term, but the big picture is decidedly negative, and we have to respect that fact.
The nature of Wall Street is to always encourage you to find reasons to buy. If the market is trending lower, then every pullback is a buying opportunity that we need to rush in and embrace so we don't miss out on the turn that is going to occur at any minute.
My approach is to not worry about buying until the market proves itself a bit. That means you are likely to miss out on some of the early gains, but that is cheap insurance for not being exposed to the momentum of a downtrending market. Mornings like this, where the reasons behind the weak market become much more obvious, are very painful for the overanxious and always hopeful bulls who want to call every bottom.
My advice to simply stand aside is not well received by many on Wall Street, because they need you to put your money at risk. They are going to keep trying to find reasons you should ignore the fact of the current downtrend and put your precious capital to work. While we might consider their pleas as entertainment, there is no reason to be building positions until the market is acting better.
Fasten your seatbelts -- we have an ugly start and lots more earnings reports to come. It is going to be tough slogging out there if you try to fight the trend.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BJS +9.6%, WGOV +5.8%, UAUA +4.2%, LCC +4.1%, STLD +3.9%, BHI +3.4%, LOGI +2.7%, CPO +2.7%, STI +2.5%, BIIB +2.5%, WU +2.1% (light volume), CAT +2.1%, WAB +2.1%, QLGC +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), AMLN +1.5%, PKG +1.1%, VLTR +1.0%... M&A news: BXG +108.1% (announces it has signed a non-binding letter of intent relating to the acquisition of the co at a price of $15.00/share by Diamond Resorts), FDRY +33.2% (Brocade announces definitive agreement to acquire Foundry Networks for $19.25 a share)... Select European oil/gas names trading higher following strength overseas: BP +2.3%, TOT +1.9%, E +1.1%, RDS.A +1.0%... Other news: WCG +6.2% (to restate 2004, 2005, 2006 and 1Q07 and 2Q07 financials), EXTR +5.7% (up in sympathy with FDRY), VE +5.3% (still checking), PSD +4.0% (Puget Sound Energy and Puget Holdings reach multi-party settlement with parties in merger case being reviewed by Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission), PDE +3.9% (discloses 5.0% stake in 13D filing; confirms Nordea Bank and SeaDrill transaction), PNRA +1.3% (4.7% Holder Shamrock Activist Value Fund discloses actions they believe would enhance shareholder value), WPI +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: BBI +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at Pali Research).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VOD -13.7% (also downgraded to Market Perform at Collins Stewart), TXN -13.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), SNDK -13.0% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup and downgraded to Sell at ThinkPanmure), EXP -12.1%, WB -12.0% (also cut by Fitch; IDR to A+ from AA- -- Bloomberg), MICC -10.6%, AAPL -10.5%, AXP -10.0% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), KEY -8.8% (light volume), HPC -7.5% (light volume), MRK -7.3% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill and downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Swann), ERIC -6.9%, BSX -5.4%, AMX -4.4% (also trading ex-dividend), RF -3.8%, ALV -3.7%, MHK -3.5%, SGP -3.2%, WASH -3.1% (light volume), FITB -2.9%, FCX -2.3%, DD -1.7%, LNCR -1.5%... M&A news: BRCD -21.0% (Brocade announces definitive agreement to acquire Foundry Networks for $19.25 a share)... Select credit card related cos showing weakness following AXP results: COF -5.1%, DFS -4.2%, V -3.0%, MA -2.6%... Select mortgage/financial names trading lower: FNM -7.0% and FRE -6.9% (Fannie, Freddie books under scrutiny - WSJ), ABK -6.7%, WM -4.2%, LEH -3.9%, UBS -3.6%, NCC -3.4%, ZION -3.2%, MER -3.0%, C -2.9%, BAC -2.0%, MS -1.8%... Select communications-related cos trading lower with several cos reporting disappointing results: TEF -6.9%, DT -6.1%, STM -5.4%, NOK -3.0%, MOT -2.5%, CSCO -2.3%, ALU -2.2%, RIMM -2.1%, JNPR -2.0%, VZ -1.5%, T -1.0%... Other news: AGO -46.7% (Moody's reviews Assured Guaranty's Aaa rating for possible downgrade, co issued response with Q2 guidance; also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), SGLP -11.8% (showing continued weakness), PAAS -3.7% (reports that expected commissioning of its newest silver mine will be delayed approximately 90 days), BBY -1.6% (showing weakness following disappointing results from both SNDK and TXN)... Analyst comments: SFI -7.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), BMI -3.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Boenning & Scattergood), ADSK -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), CRM -2.7% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), MU -1.9% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
oijahhhhh
elu treid jäi tegemata
:(
elu treid jäi tegemata
:(
mis treid?
WCG
eile kirjutasin sellest
eile kirjutasin sellest
Panen siia vahepeal siis uuesti lingi meie tulemuste tabelist. Sai just kenasti ära uuendatud.
Nafta kukub hoogsalt ja aitab niimoodi turgude hommikuse kauplemise miinust kustutada. Barreli hind -3.2% ehk $127.7 septembri delivery eest.
Ilmselgelt alahindasin WCG uudise olulisust. Punktid speedyle.
Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:
Saksamaa DAX -1.14%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.27%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.83%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -3.00%
Venemaa MICEX -1.73%
Poola WIG -0.32%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.98%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.02%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.53%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.53%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.11%
Tai Set 50 -0.85%
India Sensex +1.84%
Üks päris huvitav kommentaar siia RealMoney alt. seotud investorite karuste nägemusega, millega on nüüdseks ehk pisut liiale mindud. Kasvanud lühikeseks müüdud positsioonide arv on pakkumas põrandata allapoole liikumise riski ees:
Patrick Schultz: "According to a Bloomberg report, investors have amassed enormous short positions across global markets. The article notes that "...more than $1.4 trillion of equities worldwide are now on loan, about a third higher than at the start of 2007."
Further, it notes that short selling specifically on the NYSE climbed to 4.6% of total volume last month. This is the highest level of bearishness since 1931.
At minimum, the big short interest will provide a nice downside floor of support. At best, it could be explosive upside fuel on sustained positive news. Take a look at the action in Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) last week and that was just one day's worth of good news. "
Patrick Schultz: "According to a Bloomberg report, investors have amassed enormous short positions across global markets. The article notes that "...more than $1.4 trillion of equities worldwide are now on loan, about a third higher than at the start of 2007."
Further, it notes that short selling specifically on the NYSE climbed to 4.6% of total volume last month. This is the highest level of bearishness since 1931.
At minimum, the big short interest will provide a nice downside floor of support. At best, it could be explosive upside fuel on sustained positive news. Take a look at the action in Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) last week and that was just one day's worth of good news. "
Vocus (VOCS) tõestas, et nõudlus on-demand tarkvara järgi on jätkuvalt kõrge, analüütikute oodatud $0.12 suurust aktsiapõhist kasumit löödi $0.09 võrra. Tulud tõusid 35.6% yoy, ulatudes $19.1 miljonini (konsensuse ootus $18.7 miljonit). Mõned nopped ka konverentsikõnelt:
Our Q2 performance has underscored continued strong demand for on-demand PR management solutions, Vocus's strong competitive position and the leverage in our SaaS business model. Based on the success of Q2 and with the first half of 2008 now behind us, we are again raising guidance for the year to reflect the strong market demand for our products, our continued sales momentum and the overall confidence we have in our business.
Vocus is already one of the most profitable SaaS companies in the market today, and we expect to continue to grow our operating margins each year, every year, although the rate of expansion will not be as dramatic going forward as our business continues to scale and grow.
Viimane Bold'i pandud tekts on see, mida näiteks Salesforce'i (CRM) puhul kiputakse ära unustama.