-USA turud on avanemas väikeses miinuses, tehnoloogiasektoris üllatas oma tulemustega eBay (EBAY). Futuurid pöördusid miinusesse peale teadet, et märtsitootjahinnaindeks kerkis 0.5%. Ilma toidu ja energiakomponentideta kasvasid tootjahinnad 0.2%.
-veitsi ravimihiid Novartis (NVS) andis täna selgelt mõista, et on valmis läbirääkimisteks Aventisega (AVE) ühinemiseks. Uus firma oleks Pfizeri (PFE) järel suuruselt teine ravimifirma maailmas. Novartise aktsia eelturul 2.9% miinuses, Aventise aktsia 1.3% plussis.
-Internetis oksjoneid korraldav eBay (EBAY) teatas, et esimese kvartali käive 756 miljonit dollarid (konsensus 717 miljonit). Kasum küündis 200 miljoni dollarini ehk 30 senti aktsia kohta. Erakorraliste mahaarvamisteta küündis kasum aktsia kohta 31 sendini ehk prognoositust viis senti kõrgem. Terve aasta käibeks prognoosis firma 3.15 miljardit dollarit. Eelturul aktsia 3,7% plussis.
Rev Shark:
One of the primary reasons the market has been struggling with interest rate concerns recently is simply a matter of timing. We have had a huge move since the bottom in 2002. Over the past 18 months the Nasdaq has come within about 6% of doubling.
That big move was mostly attributed to the market pricing in a stronger economy. Investors anticipated that things were improving and they were right. Anyone with a basic understanding of economics knows that a consequence of a strong economy is higher interest rates as the demand for capital accelerates. So this interest rate issue shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
The interest rate issue simply provides a very convenient and logical excuse for market participants to take some profits. After a 94% move in the Nasdaq the itch to take some profits is strong and market participants will look for a convenient excuse to scratch it.
There are a number of theories about how the market moves in cycles. Fibonnaci, Gann, Elliott and a number of others liken the moves in the market to waves in the ocean: We have surges and pullbacks in a steady progression, just like the human emotions that drive us to buy and sell.
Jeff Cooper focuses on this cyclical aspect of the market quite well in his column. I'm skeptical of some of the predictive tools he uses, but the overall thesis of market movement in the form of waves or cycles is irrefutable.
So if you are a bit puzzled about why interest rates are suddenly so important -- when everyone knew they had to rise at some point -- focus more on the ebb and flow of market emotions. We have been optimistic and upbeat for a while but that never lasts forever. The market was due to pull back, just like a wave always does, and the interest rate issue was the most convenient excuse to justify it.
The media tend to look for a cause-and-effect relationship between news and the market. They tell us "this news event occurred and therefore the market reacted in this way." Actually, the truth is usually the opposite: The market acted in a certain way because it was destined to because of the cyclical nature of things, and then we look for a news event to explain it.
Although there are good reasons to be bullish in the months ahead, it looks like we are now undergoing a correction wave. Fighting it with insight as to why the bears are wrong won't help. We need to let it play out and wait for signs that the cycle is ready to turn back up again.
Overnight earnings reports were a mixed bag with some sold reports like eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) and some poor ones like KLA-Tencor (KLAC:Nasdaq). The net result is that the market is doing very little. Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) reports tonight and it will garner some attention ahead of the news.
Overseas markets struggled. Weekly unemployment claims are coming up but earnings are the primary news event now.
Gary B. Smith:

