Tänasest börsipäevast võiks kujuneda läbimurre üles või kukkumine ja taas aasta põhjade testimine. Päeva alguses ootaks väga madalat kauplemisaktiivsust, sest Föderaalreservi nõukogu annab oma intressimäära otsusest teada kell 21.15. Väga suure tõenäosusega on oodata 0.25% intressitõstmist.
Majade ehitamise number oli oodatust parem, aasta baasil kerkis augustis 2.0 miljonit ühikut, ootused olid 1.92 miljonit.
RF Micro Devices (RFMD) hoiatas ,kuid eelturul on aktsia 8% plussis. Märk, et turul on tahtmine tõusta suurem kui hirm languse ees.
Palm One (PLMO) kvartaliprognoos oli oodatust veidi madalam ning aktsia 8% miinuses eelturul, antud juhul tegemist väga volatiilse aktsiaga, mis suutnud päeva sees 10 punkti üles ja alla liikuda.
Rev Shark:
The primary focus of the day will be the FOMC interest rate decision, due out at 2:15 p.m. EDT. A quarter-point hike is almost universally expected and is unlikely to have any major market impact. The focus will be on the accompanying statement, which will provide some hints about the FOMC's view of the economy and the likelihood of future interest rate hikes.
The FOMC is walking a rather thin line. On one hand, it doesn't want to foreclose the possibility of more rate hikes to come because that would be a tacit admission that it thinks the economy is struggling. On the other hand, it doesn't want to be so committed to a particular course of action that it doesn't take into account the reality of a struggling economic recovery.
The ideal situation for the market would be a statement by the FOMC that the economy is looking good but fears of inflation have eased and interest rate hikes are on hold. That would be the perfect storm for the bulls. But the problem with that is that economic growth and inflation tend to go hand-in-hand. The FOMC risks its credibility with a statement of that sort.
The likelihood is that we get some vague statement about how the economy is doing OK and the FOMC will stay vigilant and ready to act if necessary. How would the market react to that? Given the big run we have had in recent weeks, there is probably some inclination to "sell the news," but I think the FOMC's goal is to be so obtuse that the market will be confused about how to react.
On the last 12 FOMC decision days, the market opened higher, and it looks like the streak will stay intact. Early indications are positive. Overseas markets were up overnight. Oil is easing and that is helping matters a bit. We have mixed news with some positive from the likes of Adobe (ADBE:Nasdaq) but negative from PalmOne (PLMO:Nasdaq) that really whipsawed some folks last night.
Look for choppy, boring action in front of the FOMC announcement and then some fireworks.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Gary B. Smith: