Esiteks tänan kõiki, kes mind ja Erkit eile õhtul Radissonis seminaril kuulamas käisid. Mul oli väga hea meel näha niivõrd suurt inimeste arvu ja huvi!
Aga minnes nüüd tänase juurde - sarnaselt eilsele on tulemas ka täna väga tihe tulemuste päev. Nüüdseks olen meie tulemuste tabeli ka taaskord ära uuendada jõudnud ning esimesest tulbast on näha, et sellel nädalal oma märgi tabelisse kirja saanud 32 ettevõttest pole veel ükski EPSi ootustele alla jäänud. Ometi liiguvad järelturul ülespoole vaid need ettevõtted, kes on suutnud näidata ka tugevat müügitulu või annavad tuleviku osas optimistlikke prognoose. Seega ainult headest numbritest ei piisa - aktsiate edasiseks tõusuks peavad täna olema näidud lausa suurepärased.
Olulisi makroandmeid täna peale 17.30 avalikustatava naftaraporti tulemas ei ole.
Teiste seas tulevad oma 3. kvartali tulemustega eelturul Altria (MO), Boeing (BA), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC) ning järelturul Amgen (AMGN), eBay (EBAY) ja Noble Corp (NE).
Euroopa turud: Saksamaa DAX -0.72% Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.07% Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.73% Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.64% Rootsi OMX 30 -1.38% Venemaa MICEX -1.36% Poola WIG -0.26%
Aasia turud: Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.03% Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.30% Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.45% Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.23% Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.22% Tai Set 50 -1.43% India Sensex 30 -1.24%
Where's the Fear? By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 10/21/2009 8:06 AM EDT
"I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself."
-- Ronald Reagan
Although there have been plenty of very strong earnings reports so far this quarter, the market has had a mix of reactions. Initially, the stocks with strong reports, like Intel (INTC) , IBM (IBM) , Alcoa (AA) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) , sold off while the market indices held up. Yesterday, we saw stocks with strong reports, like Apple (AAPL) and Caterpillar (CAT) , act well while the market indices sold off.
The distinction may not be all that important, because both reactions are indications that the market is finding it more difficult to make progress. Expectations have been high and the news generally good, but we aren't ripping higher like we did in the second quarter, because we have already priced in much of the positive news.
This is a slight change in character, and it is too early and not yet sufficiently significant to make a big deal over. In fact, it would be more surprising if the market didn't rest a bit rather than continue to move straight up with no profit taking. Earnings are always a convenient excuse to look at some gains, and the fact that it happened on some good reports isn't very surprising.
The biggest negative this market has going for it is that it is hard not to be a bit complacent about it. We still have a strong uptrend in place, there is plenty of underlying support, the earnings news is good and folks are less pessimistic about the economic situation. As there is nothing much else to do with cash other than stick it in the stock market, why should we be worried about anything?
An overbought, complacent market is usually cause for a little worry, but in this market, the biggest mistake you could make is looking for a change of trend. Instead of looking for reasons why we are on the verge of falling apart, it has been far more productive to focus on why nothing is likely to change.
We have a little softness this morning, as the dollar is showing some signs of rallying again, which is probably the most obvious negative for this market right now. Otherwise, it is looking like nothing more than just a little healthy consolidation. The fact that there isn't more fear is the only thing that is troubling about this mild action so far. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CASB +35.7%, IDSA +17.8%, SLM +9.6%, DSCM +9.4% (light volume), SNDK +6.5%, YHOO +4.8%, SYK +4.4% (also upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), CKSW +4.0%, CREE +3.6% (also upgraded to Buy at Morgan Joseph), LLY +2.2%, WLT +1.7%, INFN +1.6%, CBY +1.4%... Other news: SATC +9.0% (their PowerGate Plus 500 kW solar PV inverters were selected for and are now fully operational at First Light), SHPGY +2.0% (targets fourth quarter filing of BLA for REPLAGAL for fabry disease with U.S. FDA), RX +2.0% (confirms that it is exploring a variety of strategic alternatives), DSW +1.9% (DSW CEO bought 10K shares at $21.00-21.50 on 10/19), NVAX +1.8% (announce collaboration to develop large-scale manufacturing process for 2009 H1N1 influenza VLP vaccine), DT +1.7% (still checking), CRXL +1.1% (announces that preliminary results of the Phase I study of its HIV vaccine were presented), OXPS +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MU +1.1% (trading up in sympathy with SNDK)... Analyst comments: CYOU +2.1% (light volume; upgraded to Buy at Roth).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CONN -16.9%, GAP -14.3%, MI -8.1%, BSX -6.5%, SWI -6.4%, PKG -5.8%, VLTR -5.7%, RF -5.3%, EDU -4.1% (light volume), JDAS -2.8%, SVU -2.5% (light volume), STT -2.1%, KO -2.1%, BIIB -1.8%, BMI -1.7%, ZION -1.1%... Other news: ANPI -6.1% (announces the FDA has said its 510(k) submission for Bio-Seal, stating that Bio-Seal is a class III device that requires Pre-Market Approval for FDA marketing clearance), BCS -4.3% (Qatar to sell Barclays), AIXG -2.2% (still checking), EWZ -2.1% (Brazil's finance Minister confirms govt will levy financial transactions tax on capital inflows)... Analyst comments: TNP -3.6% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), GME -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Janney), BA -2.7% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), PCS -2.4% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs - DJ), PTV -1.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays).
GENZ jäi tulemuste osas alla ja tõmbas ka prognoose madalamale. Aktsia sai enne tulemusi juba kerget müüki, kuid täna avanemisest juba +$1 visanud, kas õigustatud liikumine?
SQNM osaleb nädalavahetusel American Society for Human Genetics teaduskonverentsil mitme ettekandega. Teaduskonverentsil ettekannetes negatiivseid tulemusi ei esitleta. Midagi peab siiski olema millest rääkida. Võib oodata järgmisel nädalal tõusu.
Figures released on Monday show that, in the 12 months ending September, federal personal income tax receipts were down more than 20%, while corporate tax receipts dropped a remarkable 54.6%. These are the biggest declines since World War Two, and explain why the deficit has risen so sharply. A large part of the current stimulus is unplanned rather than deliberate (buttonwoods).
Valitsusele väga kehv, kui võlakirjade intressimäärad peaks tõusma hakkama (võlakirjad täna ka miinuspoolel).
Aktsiaturgudel tugev algus - SPY 110
Valuutaturul rabeleb EUR/USD olulise 1.5 tasemega.
Miku kommentaarile ütleks veel täienduseks, et põhimõtteliselt kulub täna ca 6% kuni 7% USA eelarve tuludest võlakoorma pealt intresside tasumise peale. Intresside kergitamine/kerkimine on seetõttu ameeriklaste jaoks hell teema.
