Börsipäev 21. august

Investeerimine
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WSJ raporteerib, et SEC on andnud sisse tsiviilpettuse hagi Sentinel Management Groupi vastu. Eelmise nädala alguses väitis firma oma klientidele, et raha ei ole fondist enam võimalik välja võtta likviidsuskriisi tõttu krediiditurul. Krediidituru hirmud kandusid üle aktsiaturule ning Dow langes 207.6 punkti päevaga.

SEC süüdistab fondi võimenduse kasutamises ning sellest raporteerimata jätmises. Lisaks näeb SEC veel pettusskeemi, mida on üritatud varjata turulikviidsuse probleemidega – firma olevat väidetavalt klientide vara seganud enda varaga ning kasutanud seda tagatisena võimenduse võtmisel.

WSJ kirjutab, et kuigi probleemide põhjustajaks ei pruugigi olla krediiditurg, võib ettevõttega toimuv mõjutada turul olevaid teisi tegijaid – pankrott ei tee asja samuti lihtsamaks.

Teine huvitav lugu, mida WSJ lugejateni toob, käsitleb legendaarset investorit Warren Buffettit. Buffett on mees, kes ilmub siis kui ajad turgudel on õige veriseks minemas. Viimastel aastatel on hedge-fondide tegevuse tulemusena ettevõtete hinnad tõusnud ning see on jätnud Buffetti ilma investeerimisvõimalustest. Nüüd on tal kasutada $50-miljardiline rahatagavara ning erinevad spekulatsioonid on turul tekkimas. Toon välja mõned lõigud loost.

Some investors speculate Berkshire could be a buyer for parts of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp., whose stock price has been hit hard by subprime worries. Countrywide's assets, including its debt-servicing business and its portfolio of high-quality mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, could be attractive to Berkshire, these investors say.

It wouldn't be the first time a financial firm asked Mr. Buffett for help. In 1991, he took over as chief executive of Salomon Brothers, then in the midst of a criminal probe for a scandal involving the Treasury market. Many credit Mr. Buffett today for shepherding Salomon back into the good graces of securities regulators and investors

.…….

Unlike LTCM, Countrywide runs some straightforward lending businesses, a strong brand name and high-quality mortgage assets that could complement Berkshire's other securities investments. For example, Berkshire is a longtime shareholder in Wells Fargo & Co. and M&T Bank, also reputed to be conservative lenders with strong brand recognition and long operational histories

.…

In fact, Mr. Buffett has already been dipping his toe a little deeper into the market for mortgage-backed securities. In the second quarter, Berkshire reported that its insurance division doubled its investment in mortgage-backed securities rated double-A or higher, to $3.7 billion, from the first quarter

.…

Berkshire could also be taking advantage of cheaper stock prices in companies he already owns. For example, Berkshire bought shares of USG Corp., the wallboard maker, for as high as $46 in the past year and built up a little over a 17% stake. Yesterday, the shares closed at $37.96.

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"Põrkeks" pakutud BEP põhjast ca 15%, lisaks S&P taastumisele ka langev volatiilsus mõjutas kokkuvõttes positiivselt. Tuleb aga ausalt tunnistada, et olin selle ostmiseks taas liiga jänes ja piirdusin DEW-ga (mis juba ka kinni). Aga üsna usutav, et lähikuudel tuleb sarnast olukorda veel ette.
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Ma nägin täna unes, et olin ka "jänes":) Mul oli ports raha, mida ma kaotuse kartuses kuidagi ära ei suutnud investeerida.
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“The winners will be those who have liquidity and can extend it to those who crave it,” said Alan H. Dorsey, alternative investment strategist at Lehman.
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Päeva alustasid Euroopa indeksid miinuses, kuid on koos USA eelturu positiivse algusega jõudsalt ülespoole rühkinud.

Saksamaa DAX +0.38%

Prantsusmaa CAC +0.39%

Inglismaa FTSE -0.27%

Hispaania IBEX -0.51%

Venemaa RTS -1.38%

Poola WIG -0.86%

Aasia turud olid täna kirjud, enamuse indeksitega plusspoolel, kuid India, Indoneesia, Singapur, Tai ja Pakistan lõpetasid enam kui 2%lises miinuses:

Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.07%

Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.62%

Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.03%

Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.20%

Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.87%

Tai Set -4.02%

India Sensex -3.04%

USA futuurid indikeerivad hetkel kauplemispäeva avanemist ca pool protsenti eilsetest sulgumistasemetest kõrgemal. Kuigi enamus tähelepanu keerleb just kinnisvara, finantssektori ja intressimäärade ümber (spekulatsioonid intressimäärade langetamise osas on üha enam tuld võtnud), siis tasub ilmselt silm peal hoida ka nafta hinnal ja energia sektoril, mis on seni paljudele fondidele ilusaid kasumeid toonud. Nafta maksab täna $70.9 barrelist ning kui $70-st peaks hind allapoole langema, võib turg sellest lühiajalist tuge saada.

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Madise tänane pealugu väärib lugemist - huvitav teema ning võtab toimuva väga hästi kokku.
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Trading Range Ahead
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/21/2007 7:21 AM EDT


True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous and conflicting information.
-- Winston Churchill

After the drama of last week, trading slowed significantly yesterday with Nasdaq volume down more than 30% and NYSE volume down nearly 40% from Friday's levels. This volume drop is probably indicative of the market entering a trading range period. After the recent swings, many investors are still sorting out what it all means, and many are standing aside and not making any big moves until there is greatly clarity.

In addition to the recent confusing surge in volatility, we are now in a seasonal slow period of the year as many market participants attempt to take a final summer vacation and ponder the fact that, historically, September is the weakest month of the year for the stock market. With third-quarter earnings reports still quite far down the road there isn't any big rush to position holdings at this point.

The most significant thing affecting the market right now is the growing conviction over the likelihood that the Fed will lower the fed funds rate in the near future. The cut in the discount rate and the accompanying statement indicated a clear shift in the Fed bias. Should there be further problems in the debt market and/or signs that economic growth is slowing, the Fed looks poised to slash interest rates.

Knowing that the Fed is out there and ready to act is going to put a floor under the market in the near term. No one wants to be caught leaning the wrong way during a fast and furious rally when the Fed cuts. The interesting thing is that such a rally may have only a limited life, especially if an interest rate cut is more and more anticipated, but the sellers and shorters would rather do their thing after a Fed-induced spike rather than in front of it.

Another difficulty we face right now is that it is probably going to take more bad news before the Fed will move. We can't just go long and wait for the Fed to send us higher with a cut. The great likelihood is that we will get hit with something negative before we are eventually saved by the Fed. Already, folks are talking about how the disruption in the commercial paper market is good reason for the Fed to make a move right now.

The end result of all this is that we are likely stuck in a trading range for at least a little while. We have the high possibility of more negative news on either the credit or economic front. However, bad news raises the chances that the Fed will move to keep liquidity flowing and cut interest rates and that will support the market. While there aren't a lot of great reasons to rush out and buy, there also are some reasons to believe the market is going to find some nearby support as long as the Fed looks ready to react should problems persist.

We simply have to be patient and wait to see how things develop. It is a good time to make sure you have some idle cash on the sidelines so that you can jump in quickly as events unfold. Just don't be overly anticipatory.

We have a flat start to the day. Asian markets were up again, but Europe was mixed. Oil and gold are trading flat.

----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: DKS +6.7%, BJ +3.6%... Other news: LEND +10.3% (co trades $1 bln of loans with right to repurchase; transaction will reduce its exposure to margin calls on these loans), HSOA +7.3% (entered into a teaming agreement for disaster and recovery services with AshBritt), BAY +4.6% (stock rose in overseas trading on speculation of a Novartis takeover offer), RNWK +4.4% (WSJ reports that MTV & RNWK have joined to battle iTunes), CFC +4.0% (WSJ reports that investors are speculating that Berkshire could be a buyer for parts of CFC), ATML +4.1% (still checking for any news -- we saw heightened call buying yesterday, and last night Cramer was bearish on the stock), ITW +2.8% (approves new $3 bln stock buyback), UNTD +2.7% (positive Cramer comments).
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Bofa langetab täna majadeehitajate TOL, HOV ja SPF reitinguid. Toll Brothersi target tõmmatakse $29 pealt $19 peale. Päris kole. Põhjendused järgmised ning seotud taas laenuturuga:

BofA downgraded Toll Brothers (TOL) to Sell from Neutral, reducing the tgt to $19 from $29, and downgraded Hovnanian (HOV) and Standard Pacific (SPF) to Neutral from Buy, reducing the tgts to $12 from $19 and to $10 from $19 respectively, as they believe mortgage distress has stoked liquidity fears. Firm senses that cancelations jumped across the industry in recent weeks as lenders pulled commitments from buyers already in backlog and new buyers failed to qualify. As such, they believe HOV and SPF will come out on the low end of mgmt's 2H/07 cash flow goal, and HOV missing the FY/08 goal as well. For TOL, they expect move-up and luxury sales to get hit from recent mortgage distress as wider spreads and less availability of Jumbo loans push homeownership out of reach for many of TOL's buyers

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Vital Images (VTAL), millest on kirjutatud Pro all, tuli lõpuks välja oma uute toodetega. Vitrea 4.0 ja Vital Connect 4.1 on olnud mõnda aega küll proovikasutuses, kuid müüma asuti neid avalikult alles nüüd. Tarkvara muudab skännerite kogutud info detailseks pildiks inimeste siseorganitest ning seda on võimalik interneti teel vaadata ja anlüüsida kõikjal maailmas.Toodete põhiolemus on muidugi samaks jäänud, lihtsalt tegu on järgmise põlvkonna toodetega. Antud alal on moraalne vananemine märgatav ning uued tooted koos mõnede uute lisavõimalustega toovad kindlasti Vitali tähelepanu keskpunkti tagasi.

Toodetega hilinemine oli siiani Vitalile üks põhiprobleemidest ning loodetavasti paistab tulevik nüüd helgem. Kuna toodetega turule tulemine oli laias laastus oodatud, ainult kuupäeva ei teatud, avanes aktsia ka eilse sulgemishinnaga samal tasemel. Siiski on uudis positiivne ja mõningane ostuhuvi lähiajal tõenäoline.
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Oliveri jutule jätkuks Bofa poolsetest majadeehitajate hinnasihtide kärpimisest soovitan kuulata Fifth Third Asset Management portfellihalduri Jon Fisheri kommentaare selle peale, kes usub, et housing'u probleemid kestavad kogunisti 2010. aastani. Niivõrd kaugelevaatavaid ja kurbi pilte sellest sektorist on paar meest varemgi maalinud, kuid tundub, et iga nädalaga liigub konsensusootus housing'u ümberpöördumisest üha kaugemale ja kaugemale, mida veel mõned kuud tagasi loodeti näha selle aasta sügisel. Fisher usub kogunisti, et USA pöördub 2009.-2010. aastal majanduslangusesse...

Link intervjuule siin.
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Oleme turu langust ära kasutamas ning esimesi ostusid sooritamas. Ahneks veel ei maksa minna, kuid mõningaid huvitavaid võimalusi on turg pakkumas. Lähemalt saab lugeda Pro alt.
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Citigroup’i hinnangul on Ladina-Ameerika aktsiaturgudel korrektsioon läbi. Eile avaldatud paberis arvab pank, et Ladina-Ameerika aktsiaturud võiksid pärast 23,1%-list langust (põhi oli 16. augustil) ülespoole tõusma hakata. Prognoosis öeldakse, et tõus tuleb aeglane ja kõikuv, kuid Citigroup ennustab MSCI Latin America indeksi uute tippude saabumist 2007. aasta lõpus – 2008. aasta alguses.

Peamised põhjused optimismiks:
1) maailmamajanduse jätkuv tugevus, mis prognoosi järgi kasvab käesoleval aastal 3,7%;
2) kui turuolukord läheb halvemaks ning eriti kui USA majandus libiseb languse poole, siis on Fed’il ruumi langetada intressimäärasid suhteliselt agressiivselt (isegi kui selline samm ei toeta majandust, siis on tõenäoline, et see toetab aktsiahindu).

USA intressimäärade kärpimise osas viidatakse LTCM-i (Long Term Capital Management) paralleelile, kui hättasattunud hedgefondi päästmiseks kärpis Fed 1998. aasta septembrist alates kolmel korral intressimäärasid. Samas toob Citigroup välja, et kuigi mitmed tegurid sellise paralleeli toomiseks on sarnased (kõik maailma finantsturud on mõjutatud, USA valitsuse võlakirjade tagurpidi pöördunud intressikõver, mõlema kriisi alguses olid võlakirjaspread’id madalad, finantsvõimendus oli kriisi alguses kõrgel tasemel, aktsiate volatiilsus oli kriisi alguses madal, USA majandustsükkel oli lõppfaasis), siis on ka erinevusi – dollar on praegu nõrk, kuid oli 1998. aastal tugev; praeguse kriisi aluspõhjus oli siseriiklik, kuid 1998. aastal algas kriis välismaalt (Aasia krahh peale 1997. aasta keskpaika ning Venemaa maksejõuetus 1998. aasta augustis), mistõttu paralleel ei ole päris üks-ühene. Samuti oli 1998. aasta augusti lõpuks arenevad aktsiaturud aasta algusest juba ca 40% langenud, kuid praegu on arenevad turud aasta algusest 5% plussis (Ladina-Ameerika +9%).

Lisaks toob Citigroup välja järgmised murettekitavad tegurid, mis võiksid nende positiivsele prognoosile vastu töötama hakata:
1) halvim potentsiaalne negatiivne tegur on, et USA majandus läheb langusesse ning ka maailmamajanduse kasv aeglustub järsult;
2) 51% MSCI Ladina-Ameerika indeksisse kuuluvaid ettevõtteid kauplevad jätkuvalt ülevalpool oma 200-päeva libisevat keskmist (varasemate korrektsioonide lõpus on see protsent olnud väiksem);
3) raha väljavool Ladina-Ameerika aktsiatest on olnud võrreldes varasemate korrektsioonidega väike.

Nii et kokkuvõttes nähakse praegu Ladina-Ameerikas head ostukohta, kuid nagu ikka ei välistata ka aktsiaturgude edasise languse võimalust.

Mõned Ladina-Ameerika indeksfondid ja börsil kaubeldavad fondid:
ILF (iShares Latin America 40 Index);
EWZ (iShares MSCI Brazil Index);
EWW (iShares MSCI Mexico Index);
LDF (Morgan Stanley Latin America Discovery Fund);
MXF (Mexico Fund);
CH (Credit Suisse Chile Fund)

Investeerimisfond:
JP Morgan Latin America Select Equity Fund(JPMLATAE)
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Madis kirjutas 21/08/07 16:32 kommentaaris VTAList, mida oleme ka Pro all tutvustanud. Teemaks siis lõpuks uute toodetega turule jõudmine. Deutsche Bank on situatsiooni ka lühidalt kommenteerimas, öeldes, et toodete turulejõudmine liigutab aktsia kohalt ära murepilve kuna analüüsimaja arvates lükkasid paljud kliendid edasi toote ostmise, oodates uuemat versiooni. Lisaks aitavad uued tooted eemale peletada konkurentsi ning taaskord kindlustada oma turuliidri positsioon (nagu Pro all ka kirjutasime, arvab CIBC, et tegemist on vaatamata suurtele vastastele firmaga, mille tooted on parimate killast). Edaspidi prognoosib DB tellimuste suurenemist ning seetõttu tugevamaid Q3 numbreid. Kinnitatakse oma ostusoovitust aktsiatele ning hinnasihti $30.

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Staples (SPLS) on firma, mis kajastab tarbijakäitumist USAs väga hästi. Konverentsikõnel küsiti firmalt palju huvitavat ning osaliselt kattus see Wal-Marti (WMT) poolt öelduga. Kuid paar huvitavat küsimust panen ka siia üles - esimene neist laiema tarbijakäitumise kohta ning vastuses sisaldub kommentaar üleüldise jaemüüjate nõrkuse kohta. Samuti on juhtkond mures tarbija pärast. Teine küsimus rohkem firma äridünaamika kohta. Regionaalselt oli firma äri üldiselt kehv ning Florida ja Arizona on näidanud väga nõrku tulemusi - põhjuseks kinnisvara, mis mõjutab tarbimiskäitumist. Ei midagi uut, kuid jaemüüjate probleemid on minu arvates alles algamas.

Q - Michael Baker of Deutsche Bank : Thanks guys. So my question is probably is the question here [ph] a bit more of a bigger picture, macro question I mean if you look your delivery business, the small business customer is still spending, if you look at retail not so much, so which do you think is the true picture of the economy and then -- that your share gains in the delivery is that leading to your comp or to your growth and then are you thereabout -- therefore losing share in your retail business? Thanks.

A - Ronald Sargent: Yeah, let me take a stab at that one. And John, you can add if you would like, but last quarter at this call, I said I was cautious about the consumer and I think this quarter I am probably a bit worried about the consumer, worry is probably better worked these days than cautious. Certainly consumer spending seems to slowing and you look at mortgage rates rising, you have got real estate prices are falling, cost to driving and energy are going up and I think really throughout retail, retail sales are soft. It's not just us, but I think other retailers as well. So kind of the headline there is that consumers are buying less stuff as they are nervous about the future and probably as they have had less dollars in their pocket.

Q - Colin McGranahan of Bernstein: First question really wanted to focus on the retail business, obviously that was the weak part of the report here, can you talk about what you calculate yourself cannibalization to be and any change their, and I am sure that you are looking at completive incursion from the accelerated store growth that if you have been able to quantify that, what you think that is and how are you seeing stores react as new competitors have come in? So if you can talk about that portion and then if there were any major regional differences within the comp and any changes in marketing or advertising that might have had an impact on the traffic?

A - Michael Miles: Hey Colin, I think the competitive, well first of all our cannibalization from our own stores runs something less than 100 basis points and as does cannibalization from competitive stores. That's something that hasn't changed significantly over the last couple of years. It's up a little bit as the number of stores has increased, but it's not the reason that if we were at a 4 comp last year this quarter, we are at a negative 2 this year this quarter. It's something that's kind of a everyday thing that we deal within the business. And I don't think it's changed significantly. We, and in fact, you look at the markets like Dallas and Seattle which are two of the more recent markets that we have entered that are among the most competitive in terms of new store builds. And those are two of our best comping markets. So, I don't think we can pin the blame for the comp on saturation or new store activity. From a regional basis, we were sort of down across the board, there are couple of markets namely Florida and Arizona that have been downsignificantly from, particularly from where they were last year and are at the relatively low end of our numbers. And I think that has probably something to do with what's going on in the housing market.

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FED'S LACKER SAYS BELIEVES STILL REASONS TO BE CONCERNED BY INFLATION OUTLOOK
Lacker says Fed policy must be guided by economy outlook
Lacker says market volatility need not require Fed rate cut

Turul on aina rohkem liikumas spekulatsioone intressimäärade kärpimise osas ning Lackeri kommentaarid ning inflatsiooniteema tõstatamine hetkel nendele ootustele hästi ei mõju. Turud tegid selle peale ka sammu alla. Märgin ära, et mees ei ole hääleõiguslik FOMC liige.
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Kui hommikul kirjutasin, et tasub ka naftal silm peal hoida, siis nüüdseks maksabki barrel juba vähem kui $70. Nafta on kaotanud täna ca -2.4% ning täpne hind hetkel $69.3. OIH roomab päeva põhjades.
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Briefing.com: Mortgage lender First Magnus Financial files For Chapter 11.

Firma kodulehelt võib lugeda järgmist: Ranked among the top 15 wholesalers nationwide/Iin addition to government loans, we are also a nationally recognized price leader in both conforming and jumbo loan products.
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Kas kusagil on mugaval kujul põhjaläinud mortgage lenderite statistikat ka olemas? Pmst midagi sellist, et: "Me kuulume TOP N lenderite hulka, kusjuures N < 25" olen kusagil varem ka näinud. No kui piisavalt palju tipust hävib, siis hävib ka üks korralik suhete, protsesside ja asjaolude võrgustik. Konkreetne jõujoonte ümbermängimine. Seda oleks kuidagi hästi visualiseerituna huvitav vaadata.
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momentum, ma ei tea ühtegi sellist lehte, mis nii kokkuvõtlik oleks, kuid üks päris huvitav on siin. Alumistel lehtedel on TOP lenders ära küll toodud ning muud infot on ka.

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Üsna humoorikas link: mortgage lender implode-meter