-USA turud on avanemas plussis. Nasdaqi futuurid on 10 punkti plussis, S&P 500 futuurid 3.5 punkti plussis. Head majandustulemused avaldasid Motorola ja Coca Cola, kuid turu esialgne reaktsioon on erinev.
-Motorola (MOT) esimene kvartal kujunes üliedukaks. Käive ületas ootusi 2 miljardi dollariga, käibe kasv küündis 42 protsendini ning käibenumbriks kujunes 6.8 miljardit dollarit. Firma kasum oli 609 miljonit dollarit(25 senti aktsia kohta), kvartal tagasi oli see 168 miljonit. Ilma erakorraliste tuludeta oli firma kasum 19 senti aktsia kohta, samal ajal oodati vaid 12 senti. Kokkuvõttes olid tulemused sellised, mis turule lõpuks ka meeldisid ( mitte väga head, vaid ülihead) ning aktsia eelturul 21% plussis.
-Coca Cola (KO) esimese kvartali tulemuste ootused olid kõrged, kuid tegelik tulem oli veelgi parem. Firma käive kasvas aastataguselt 4.5 miljardilt 5.09 miljardile, kasum kerkis 835 miljonilt 1.13 miljardile dollarile. Aktsia kohta teenis firma 46 senti, samas kui turul prognoositi 46 senti. Kokkuvõttes tulemused väga head, millest aga jäi väheks. Aktsia eelturul 0.2% plussis.
Rev Shark:
Yesterday afternoon Chairman Greenspan helped confirm what everyone who has been paying even the slightest attention to the financial press knows: Interest rates are going up in the near future. Apparently there are scores of traders and investors who were shocked to learn about this development, and they proceeded to dump their stock holdings with great vigor.
So what is the deal with that? Isn't the market supposed to be a discounting mechanism that looks forward and takes into consideration future news and event? There are volumes of academic studies on market efficiency and how it is impossible to beat the market because it always immediately discounts all relevant news and events.
Is this market just grossly inefficient or is there something else going on here?
What is going on are emotions, not cold, hard logical analysis. Investors know interest rates are going to increase but the timing and degree are still uncertain. Wall Street does not deal well with uncertainty, even when it is only about the details of an inevitable event.
More importantly, interest rate concerns simply provide an excuse to take action. The market has made a huge move over the past year and there are big gains to protect. The indices have been struggling technically and Mr. Greenspan simply provided a reasonable excuse to do some selling. In a different market environment with a different technical pattern we may have seen a very different response to Mr. Greenspan's comments.
Wall Street commentators are always on the lookout for a cause-and-effect relationship in the market that they can write about. This news event occurred and the market did this in reaction to that news. That sort of logic is easily understandable by readers. However, the market tends to be far more complex than that. We all have encountered situations where what seems like bad news results in stocks going up, and vice versa.
News events can't be considered in a vacuum. Everyone is pretty darn certain what interest rates are going to do but to some degree the discussion and speculation helps fuel the current inclination the indices have to correct. So the news as confirmed by Mr. Greenspan isn't unexpected at all, but the market is using it to do what it was inclined to do in the first place, which is correct after a year-long rally.
In the early going Motorola (MOT:NYSE) is helping to produce a bounce with a blowout earnings report. That should help the wireless sector but attention will quickly turn to Mr. Greenspan once again when he discusses the economy at 10 a.m. EDT.
Once again we had some pretty good earnings reports but this market's attention is focused on macroeconomic factors and has been very slow to embrace good reports so far this quarter. In a different sort of environment, reports like Motorola's could help fuel a sustained rally but investors are not emotionally on that track at this time.
The technical picture is very murky right now. We have sold off on increased volume several times over the past week, breadth has been poor, there is lots of overhead and not much support.
Overseas markets were weak overnight. As bond rates rise the dollar is strengthening overseas and gold continues to falter.
It is looking like we have some tricky trading ahead of us. Be careful out there.
Gary B. Smith:
