kui iga päev tuleb mõni pank tulemustega, kes oli mortgages short, siis huvitav kes olid pikad ...
kelle kätte siis mängu lõpuks must notsu jääb?
Musta notsu mäng on lahe jah :)
Must notsu jääb euroopa pankade kätte :)
Vaadates Bear Sternsi (BSC) tulemusi, saab vist BSC selle tiitli endale. EPSi näidati $1.16 vs oodatud $1.78, müüügitulud $1.3 miljardit vs oodatud $1.64 miljardit.
GS 1.5% plussis, BSC -3% punases.
GS 1.5% plussis, BSC -3% punases.
BSC:
Fixed Income net revenues were $118 million for the 2007 third quarter, down 88% from $945 million reported for the quarter ended August 31, 2006. Market conditions in both the mortgage and credit businesses were extremely challenging this quarter. A general re-pricing of risk in the market led to significant reductions in both mortgage and credit-related revenues as volumes decreased while asset values declined.
Eeldatavalt suurema osa pankade tulemustes kajastub väärtpaberistatud subprime laenude jms. ülikonservatiivne allahindlus, sest likviidse turu puudumine täna ei võimalda neid muul moel hinnata.
Kuna mainitud väärtpaberite lõplik reaalne hind sõltub tegelikust defaultide arvust kuni laenude lõppemiseni, siis ei ole välistatud ka parema kvaliteediga väärtpaberistatud laenuportfellite uuesti üles hindamine tulevikus.
Kuna mainitud väärtpaberite lõplik reaalne hind sõltub tegelikust defaultide arvust kuni laenude lõppemiseni, siis ei ole välistatud ka parema kvaliteediga väärtpaberistatud laenuportfellite uuesti üles hindamine tulevikus.
Keep Your Balance as Fed Rally Fades
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/20/2007 8:17 AM EDT
Man always travels along precipices. His truest obligation is to keep his balance.
-- Pope John Paul II
With the market's very favorable reaction to the Fed's half-point cut in interest rates, it is very important that we not be sucked into the swirling emotions. We need to maintain our balance while those around us let their strong emotions guide their actions. The excitement of the rate cut is already starting to fade, and that means cool, calm objectivity needs to be employed to navigate successfully going forward.
Balance doesn't mean being negative. It simply means recognizing that there are no certainties in the market. Yes, the market typically has a positive reaction to rate cuts, but good investing is much more complicated than simply believing that we go straight up and all we have to do is simply buy.
Typically, after a big spike like we have had since Tuesday afternoon the market consolidates, as profit-taking kicks in. Consolidation is healthy and is what we need to go higher, but more important, consolidation is what gives us insight into market health. A healthy market will have underlying support and dip-buyers who want to take advantage of lower prices. Although a dip may make some folks nervous and give the impression that all the recent bullishness was a mistake, there should be signs that underinvested bulls are looking to take advantage of it.
Despite the historical tendency of the market to act well following a Fed interest rate cut, it is not a certainty. In 2001, the market sold off steadily for many months after an initial surge on a rate cut. Obviously, conditions are much different now than they were then, but many bears are convinced that an interest rate cut is not going to be able to stop the fallout from poor real estate and credit issues.
The bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt in the longer run, but we have a very good chance of some consolidation or a pullback in the near term. If the news flow turns negative and market players stay nervous, that consolidation or pullback could turn nasty in a hurry. So let's keep our balance and stay objective. While we may want to take advantage of pullbacks, we want to make sure we maintain good money-management discipline and don't let the emotional bulls push us to be reckless.
This market still has plenty of underlying problems and the Fed is not going to be a cure-all. It certainly is a positive to have lower rates, but negative news is not going to suddenly disappear. To deal with this market effectively means you need to be balanced and appreciate both sides of the story.
We have a weak start, but Goldman Sachs (GS) just reported a huge number, and that is giving us a bit of boost. Overseas markets were mixed, with Europe struggling on poor news in the banking sectors, while metals and mining boosted Asia.
----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: GS +1.9%, APOG +5.8%... Metal mining stocks trading higher on strength in metal prices/weaker dollar: DROOY +6.7%, GFI +4.0%, SLW +2.6%, GSS +2.5%, CDE +2.3%, NXG +2.2%... Other news: GNVC +9.9% (announces the publication of pre-clinical research demonstrating the selective delivery of TNF-alpha to tumors), BRLC +7.6% (appoints new Chief Financial Officer), SOLF +3.9% (provides mid-qtr update on operations), NDAQ +3.4% (Borse Dubai purchases 28% stake in LSE from NASDAQ), CREE +3.6% (stock was highlighted on CNBC's Fast Money; noted call buying and GE-for-CREE rumor), MOT +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Cowen), CROX +1.0% (tgt upped to $68 at Piper).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: CC -10.1%, COT -6.5% (lowers FY07 outlook), MLHR -6.5%, KLAC -3% (expects fiscal first- quarter orders to be at the ``bottom'' of its forecast range), FDX -1.7%... Other news: BRCX -35.6% (reports preliminary results from a phase II clinical trial of Peramivir in subjects with Acute Influenza, the improvement was not statistically significant), SWIR -4.1% (announces binding bought deal common share offering), ARE -4% (announces 2 mln share follow on offering), VDSI -3.8% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC), OMTR -3.5% (downgraded to Market Perform at J.M.P.), AKAM -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Kaufman).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/20/2007 8:17 AM EDT
Man always travels along precipices. His truest obligation is to keep his balance.
-- Pope John Paul II
With the market's very favorable reaction to the Fed's half-point cut in interest rates, it is very important that we not be sucked into the swirling emotions. We need to maintain our balance while those around us let their strong emotions guide their actions. The excitement of the rate cut is already starting to fade, and that means cool, calm objectivity needs to be employed to navigate successfully going forward.
Balance doesn't mean being negative. It simply means recognizing that there are no certainties in the market. Yes, the market typically has a positive reaction to rate cuts, but good investing is much more complicated than simply believing that we go straight up and all we have to do is simply buy.
Typically, after a big spike like we have had since Tuesday afternoon the market consolidates, as profit-taking kicks in. Consolidation is healthy and is what we need to go higher, but more important, consolidation is what gives us insight into market health. A healthy market will have underlying support and dip-buyers who want to take advantage of lower prices. Although a dip may make some folks nervous and give the impression that all the recent bullishness was a mistake, there should be signs that underinvested bulls are looking to take advantage of it.
Despite the historical tendency of the market to act well following a Fed interest rate cut, it is not a certainty. In 2001, the market sold off steadily for many months after an initial surge on a rate cut. Obviously, conditions are much different now than they were then, but many bears are convinced that an interest rate cut is not going to be able to stop the fallout from poor real estate and credit issues.
The bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt in the longer run, but we have a very good chance of some consolidation or a pullback in the near term. If the news flow turns negative and market players stay nervous, that consolidation or pullback could turn nasty in a hurry. So let's keep our balance and stay objective. While we may want to take advantage of pullbacks, we want to make sure we maintain good money-management discipline and don't let the emotional bulls push us to be reckless.
This market still has plenty of underlying problems and the Fed is not going to be a cure-all. It certainly is a positive to have lower rates, but negative news is not going to suddenly disappear. To deal with this market effectively means you need to be balanced and appreciate both sides of the story.
We have a weak start, but Goldman Sachs (GS) just reported a huge number, and that is giving us a bit of boost. Overseas markets were mixed, with Europe struggling on poor news in the banking sectors, while metals and mining boosted Asia.
----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: GS +1.9%, APOG +5.8%... Metal mining stocks trading higher on strength in metal prices/weaker dollar: DROOY +6.7%, GFI +4.0%, SLW +2.6%, GSS +2.5%, CDE +2.3%, NXG +2.2%... Other news: GNVC +9.9% (announces the publication of pre-clinical research demonstrating the selective delivery of TNF-alpha to tumors), BRLC +7.6% (appoints new Chief Financial Officer), SOLF +3.9% (provides mid-qtr update on operations), NDAQ +3.4% (Borse Dubai purchases 28% stake in LSE from NASDAQ), CREE +3.6% (stock was highlighted on CNBC's Fast Money; noted call buying and GE-for-CREE rumor), MOT +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Cowen), CROX +1.0% (tgt upped to $68 at Piper).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: CC -10.1%, COT -6.5% (lowers FY07 outlook), MLHR -6.5%, KLAC -3% (expects fiscal first- quarter orders to be at the ``bottom'' of its forecast range), FDX -1.7%... Other news: BRCX -35.6% (reports preliminary results from a phase II clinical trial of Peramivir in subjects with Acute Influenza, the improvement was not statistically significant), SWIR -4.1% (announces binding bought deal common share offering), ARE -4% (announces 2 mln share follow on offering), VDSI -3.8% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC), OMTR -3.5% (downgraded to Market Perform at J.M.P.), AKAM -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Kaufman).
Henno, nagu Lehmani puhul ka kirjutasin, siis nemad on oma kvartalitulemustele vastavalt väitnud, et 90% balance sheetist on marked to market ning ilmselt tõesti likviidsuse puudumise tõttu kõvasti alla hinnatud ning õhku seal väga palju sees ei tohiks olla. Võimalik, et üleshindlusi ka toimub, kuid küsimus on minu arust pigem edasises kasvus - vanad head ajad, kus antud segment kõvat kasvu näitas, on ilmselt möödas.
Nagu Buffett 1980ndatel kirjutas "You don't know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out." Täna paistab, et BSC-l küll midagi üles hinnata ei ole ning subprimega ollakse hädas. Goldman tõestab, et nemad hoiavad parimat intellektuaalset kapitali sektoris.
Nagu Buffett 1980ndatel kirjutas "You don't know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out." Täna paistab, et BSC-l küll midagi üles hinnata ei ole ning subprimega ollakse hädas. Goldman tõestab, et nemad hoiavad parimat intellektuaalset kapitali sektoris.
GS-i ühekordne tulu: "Credit products included substantial gains from equity investments, including a gain of approximately $900 million related to the disposition of Horizon Wind Energy L.L.C."
Vaatame, mis siis maailma turgudel on toimunud. Euroopas on enam kui 1% miinuses Iirimaa, Islandi ja Rootsi turud. Aasias aga rohelisemad meeleolud ning seal olid suurimad tõusjad Hiina, Uus-Meremaa, Filipiinid, Vietnam ja Bangladesh.
Saksamaa DAX -0.24%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.71%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.59%
Hispaania IBEX -0.58%
Venemaa RTS -0.08%
Poola WIG -0.12%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.20%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.57%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.40%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.15%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.35%
Tai Set +0.56%
India Sensex +0.15%
Henno, arvan, et üldiselt on probleem ka selles, et väärtpaberite lunastamise tingimustega on lõdvalt ringi käidud !?
Täna kommenteeris Cowen Motorolat (MOT) ning tõstis reitingu "outperform" peale varasemalt "neutralilt." Viidati paremale sell-in tsüklile ning potentsiaalselt tugevamale aastalõpule.
SPY head & shoulders. Pilt Briefingust:
Euro flirdib dollari suhtes rekorditega, hetkel $1.406 lähedal.
Musta notsu mäng.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/09/18/7399/an-idiots-guide-to-this-crisis/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/09/18/7399/an-idiots-guide-to-this-crisis/
natsa lisa musta notsu mängule.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/09/17/7346/uk-suffers-at-the-thin-end-of-the-subprime-wedge/?source=rss
http://www.wachovia.com/ws/econ/view/0,,3915,00.pdf
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/09/17/7346/uk-suffers-at-the-thin-end-of-the-subprime-wedge/?source=rss
http://www.wachovia.com/ws/econ/view/0,,3915,00.pdf
mini1
see muu maailma exposure on kasulik info kõigile, eurotsooni ja ka Rootsi pankadel on tõepoolest vähe pistmist USA mortgage probleemidega ja eeldatavalt on enamus neist põhjuseta alla müüdud, aga kellegi käes on ikkagi must notsu olla ja mõnda aega vaadatakse kahtlustavalt kõigile otsa
see muu maailma exposure on kasulik info kõigile, eurotsooni ja ka Rootsi pankadel on tõepoolest vähe pistmist USA mortgage probleemidega ja eeldatavalt on enamus neist põhjuseta alla müüdud, aga kellegi käes on ikkagi must notsu olla ja mõnda aega vaadatakse kahtlustavalt kõigile otsa
Kui kõik kõigile otsa vaatavad, siis järelikult on keegi selle kaardi endale varrukasse peitnud. :)
Kas tõesti pole alust karta, et Euroopas tulevad ka kinnisvaraprobleemid? Ma arvan, et on küll alust seda karta. See allamüük mis paistab praegu põhjuseta, võib aasta pärast olla vägagi põhjusega.
Nafta käis vahepeal ära $83.34 juures ja euro $1.41lähedal, Venemaal ei pidanud vist närvid vastu: Russia to boost output to meet rising world demand, Putin says.