Börsipäev 2. mai

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TRIP +17% (also upgraded to Hold at Capstone Investments), TRLG +9.4% (also Board of Directors initiates quarterly cash dividend and share repurchase program), DGI +9.3%, WCG +8.8%, THOR +7.8%, WWWW +6.9%, RLOC +6.2%, AEO +6.2%, KTCC +5.9%, GNW +5.7%, VOCS +5.7%, FORM +5.4% (light volume), CALX +5.3%, RGR +4.3% (ticking higher), RGC +3.6%, UBS +3.4%, ACAS +3.3%, CVS +3.1%, CBS +2.9%, MYGN +2.4%, OCZ +2.3%, CMCSA +1.3%, GRMN +1.1%, WBMD +1.1% (light volume).

M&A news: SMSC +38.1% (SMSC to be acquired by Microchip Technology for $37.00 per share in cash), CHRS +23.7% and ASNA +11.9% (Charming Shoppes to be acquired by Ascena Retail Group for a cash tender offer at $7.35/share), ESIC +12.7% (EasyLink to be acquired by Open Text (OTEX) for $7.25 per share).

Other news: PLX +25.2% (FDA approves new orphan drug to treat a form of Gaucher disease, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity), PCO +3.8% (ticking higher, Pendrell subsidiary earlier cited denial of due process resulting from Justices' recusals, substantive errors in appellate decision in petition for rehearing), WYNN +3.6% (Wynn Macau Receives Formal Gazette Approval for Cotai Development From Macau SAR Government), RENN +3.5% (announces appointment of independent director), HLF +3% (responds to stock drop, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga), BKS +2.6% (continued strength), ARO +0.9% (ticking higher following AEO guidance).

Analyst comments: LUX +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), ACI +2% (upgraded to Buy from Fair Value at CRT Capital), FWLT +0.9% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lazard), LII +0.8% (light volume, initiated with Buy at Lazard), IHG +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse ).
AGM
Erko Rebane
April ADP Employment Change119 K vs 170K Briefing.com consensus


Kas see on siis nüüd turgudele positiivne või negatiivne ehk kas - oh jess, QE3 kohe tulemas või oh õudust, mis number?


Keeruline öelda, kuna ADP pole alati kõige korrektsemat signaali tööjõuraporti kohta andnud, mistõttu ilmselt teeb turg oma lõpliku otsuse alles reedel jäädes seniks närviliseks.
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OPEN -16.4%, RATE -11.4%, CHK -8.2% (also downgraded to Neutral at Robert W. Baird), CAVM -7.6%, RBCN -5.9%, UBNT -5.7% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich), BIO -5%, PEET -4.7%, DVN -3.3%, MA -2.6%, PLT -2.5%, BRCM -1.9%.

Financial related names showing weakness: STD -6.3%, BBVA -6.3%, NBG -3.5%, BCS -3.2%, DB -2.9%, IRE -2.7%, IBN -2%.

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -1.9%, RIO -1.6%, SLV -1%, GDX -0.6%, GLD -0.3%, BBL 1%, .

Oil/gas related names showing early weakness: STO -2.1%, TOT -2%, E -1.9%, SDRL -1.5%, PBR -1.4%, BP -1.2%.

Other news: DGAS -46.4% (trading post stock split), TRS -5.3% (announces public offering of 4 mln shares of common stock), VE -5% (still checking), OTEX -3.6% (EasyLink to be acquired by Open Text for $7.25 per share).

Analyst comments: VMED -1.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), RSH -1.7% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley).
Panin ADP ja NFP paremaks võrdluseks ka graafikule. Kui pikem trend näib kokku jooksvat, siis silma paistavad teatud kuud, kus erinevused on olnud selged. Näiteks veebruaris tõusis ADP jaanuari 182K pealt 228K peale, samal ajal NFP alanes 275K pealt 240K peale. Või näiteks jaanuaris alanes ADP detsembri 267K pealt 182K peale, samal ajal kui NFP kerkis 223K pealt 275K peale. Samas märtsis näitasid mõlemad langust, nii et ei ole päris ühes suunas liikumine koguaeg aga viimase aja tööturu arenguid arvesse võttes eks ta pigem negativse fooni tekitab.

Kass on siis vägagi positiivse hoiaku turgudel võtnud:
Doug Kass: I am at my highest net long exposure of the year now.
HFL, mis alustas hommikul küll väga tugevalt, on siiski kogu eelturu plussi päeva jooksul kaotanud.
Forbes on artikkel, mis peaks aktsiat toetama, kuna ütleb, et HFL-i ei saa samastada GMCR-ga. Sest just Einhorni lühike positisoon GMCR-s vallandas investorite seas möödunud aasta paraja paanika ning kukutas aktsia üle 40% miinusesse.

Herbalife: Link to Forbes comment on HLF. Article suggests that HLF story is far different from GMCR (which Einhorn went after last yr.
Artikkel loetav siin.

Rääkides GMCR-st, siis täna peale turu sulgumist on oodata firmalt ka kvartalitulemuste raporteerimist. Mäletatavasti eelmine kvartal rallis aktsia vaatamata üsna nõrgale prognoosile järgmisel päeval 12 punkti, aga hiljem sai uuesti nahutada SBUX-i teatest konkureeriva toote kohta.
Green Mtn Coffee prelim $0.64 vs $0.63 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $885 mln vs $971.65 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Green Mtn Coffee sees Q3 $0.48-0.53 vs $0.73 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $861-897 mln vs $1.05 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Aktsiatega hetkel kauplemine peatatud.
Valus litter tuleb siit :)
Tuligi. GMCR kaupleb hetkel $33 kandis, -33,8% allpool
HLF teeb selle peale homme veel 5% miinust :)
ymeramees
HLF teeb selle peale homme veel 5% miinust :)


No nii, tehtud :)