Kui eilne päeva alguse tugev miinus osteti USA turgudel vahepeal juba isegi plussi, siis päeva lõpuks anti kogu pluss taas käest ära. Väga võimsad on liikumised ka valuutaturgudel, kus euro-dollari liikumisvahemikud on juba pea iga päev ca 2%. Täna kell 17.00 teatatakse aprillikuu pending home sales muutus (ootus +4.3%) ning kell 21 maikuu automüügitempo (ootus 4.1 miljonit vs aprilli 3.9 miljonit).
Jaapanis on populaarsuse vähenemise tõttu tagasi astunud peaminister ning sellega kaasnev ebamäärasus on sealsed turud täna ca 1.5% miinusesse ajanud. Kui USA eelturgu praegu vaadata, siis indeksite futuurid on hetkel ca +0.2%.
Lisaks kartusele maailmamajanduse jahtumise pärast on toorainesektorit surve all hoidnud naftalekke peatamise ebõnnestunnud katsed Mehhiko lahes, mis üha tõenäolisemalt viitavad sellele, et enne teise puurkaevu valmimist augustis leket peatada ei suudeta. BP aktsia odavnes eile USA börsil -15%, mis oli suurim kukkumine firma ajaloos alates 1974. aastast. Tugeva allapoole liikumise tegid veel Transocean-11.9%, Anadarko Petroleum -19,6%, Haliburton -14,8%, vedades S&P500 energiasektori eile -4.3% madalamale võrreldes indeksi enda -1.7%-lise kukkumisega.
BP aktsia hinnaliikumine
Hoolimata Euroopa võlaprobleemidest, Hiina jahutmisest ja finantssektori võimalikust reguleerimisest ei ole Wall Streeti strateegid veel sellel aastal oma aastalõpu sihte langetanud. Pigem keskendutakse headele tulemustele ja suur osa analüüsimajadest on oma 2010.a lõpu S&P500 indeksi sihte tõstnud (tänasest tasemest madalamat taset ei näe aasta lõpus keegi):
Allikas: Bespoke
Eile tekitas päris palju poleemikat Vaclav Klausi arvamus WSJs, kus kuulus Tšehhi poliitik kirjutas, kuidas eurotsooniprojekt on läbikukkunud (Klaus on ka varem europrojekti teravalt kritiseerinud). Vahelduseks nt Eesti poliitikute nägemusele on tegu huvitava arvamusega, mida saab lugeda siit.
Nagu igale korralikule finantsportaalile kohane, ei tohiks sealt puududa ka videouudiste rubriik. Tänasest võib meie lehel näha video vahendusel juba esimesi kommentaare nii USA börsi maikuu arengute kohta kui ka tulemustehooajast Balti turgudel. Pikemalt saab sellest lugeda siit.
Klausi arvamusavalduse puhul tuleb taustal arvestada esmajärjekorras sellega, et ta on tšehh. Tšehhi vabariigis on aga eurole üleminek väga ebapopulaarne mõte (umbes nagu Ühendkuningriigis) ja nad üritavad oma krooni säilitada niikaua kui võimalik (risti vastupidi meile).
Velikij, Tšehhi Vabariigis ei ole ka valuutakomitee süsteemi minuteada. Meil tähendab "üleminek" sisuliselt teistsuguste piltidega kupüüre. Neil aga hoopis midagi muud.
/Mina muidugi leian, et mida rohkem rahvusvaluutasid, seda parem. Oma tuba, oma luba, oma monetaarpoliitika...
/Mina muidugi leian, et mida rohkem rahvusvaluutasid, seda parem. Oma tuba, oma luba, oma monetaarpoliitika...
Klausil on õige aeg seda öelda. Sest ühel hetkel, kui probleemid euro pealt ära lükatakse (ma ei öelnud , et lahendatakse), sest jõud on selleks üleloomulikult suur lihtsalt kasutada, siis hakkab Tšehhi importima inflatsiooni läbi intressimäärade ikkagi. Ja on olemas veel ka teisi kanaleid inflatsiooni jaoks, sest ega sa ainult paindliku rahanduspoliitikaga ei suuda ületada suurte riikide valuutade poolt kontrollitud rahapoliitikat.
Sellele vaatamata mulle meeldib Tšehhi ja Poola jt idaeuroopa riikide valik kasutada oma rahasüsteemi eeliseid, palju rohkem meie omast, kus oleme sellest loobunud rahareformist alates. Ma võin mõista kõiki erinevaid selgitusi, miks seda teha ei saanud ühel ega teisel põhjusel, aga n.ö. kangelased on need, kes seda tegid ja said ka kindlasti efektiivsemalt oma majandust arendada.
Samas- kui võtta arvesse täna algatatud ühte teist teemat ühe teatud tüüpi majanduspreemia määramise osas, siis me peaks olema hoopis päris õnnelikud, et me ei lasknud meie kohalikel "majandusteadlastel" eksperimenteerida rahandussüsteemi aluste omapoolse tõlgendamisega.
Sellele vaatamata mulle meeldib Tšehhi ja Poola jt idaeuroopa riikide valik kasutada oma rahasüsteemi eeliseid, palju rohkem meie omast, kus oleme sellest loobunud rahareformist alates. Ma võin mõista kõiki erinevaid selgitusi, miks seda teha ei saanud ühel ega teisel põhjusel, aga n.ö. kangelased on need, kes seda tegid ja said ka kindlasti efektiivsemalt oma majandust arendada.
Samas- kui võtta arvesse täna algatatud ühte teist teemat ühe teatud tüüpi majanduspreemia määramise osas, siis me peaks olema hoopis päris õnnelikud, et me ei lasknud meie kohalikel "majandusteadlastel" eksperimenteerida rahandussüsteemi aluste omapoolse tõlgendamisega.
Eilsest börsipäevast jäi statistikutele silma üks üsna erakordne tehing, millega tehti panus sellele, et EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) teeb juunis uued põhjad (hetke hind $37.75, 52 nädala põhi $30.12)
ETF, millele keskmine optsioonide päevakäive on ligi 270 000 lepingut päevas tegi hüppe ligi 500 000 lepinguni.
Tehingu käigus osteti 75 000 juuni 25/30/35 put butterfly spread´i, mis tähendab seda, et panustaja ootab aktsia hinna liikumist $30 juurde.
Tehingu maksimaalne kahju on $2 175 000 ehk makstud preemia ning maksimaalne kasum $35 325 000 seda juhul kui aktsia sulgub 18. juunil $30-l.
ETF, millele keskmine optsioonide päevakäive on ligi 270 000 lepingut päevas tegi hüppe ligi 500 000 lepinguni.
Tehingu käigus osteti 75 000 juuni 25/30/35 put butterfly spread´i, mis tähendab seda, et panustaja ootab aktsia hinna liikumist $30 juurde.
Tehingu maksimaalne kahju on $2 175 000 ehk makstud preemia ning maksimaalne kasum $35 325 000 seda juhul kui aktsia sulgub 18. juunil $30-l.
Euroopas oli tegu negatiivse alatooniga kauplemispäevaga. USAs on päev vähemasti algamas positiivsete meeleolude saatel, kuid siin on kindlasti abiks olnud ka euro 1.4%line nõrgenemine dollari vastu.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0,89%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -1,51%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -1,13%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2,20%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,19%
Venemaa MICEX +0,22%
Poola WIG +0,07%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1,12%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,13%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,12%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,96%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A (börs suletud)
Tai Set 50 +1,19%
India Sensex 30 +1,02%
Ignore the Clarion Call
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/2/2010 8:27 AM EDT
No life is so hard that you can't make it easier by the way you take it.
-- Ellen Glasgow
The market has been undergoing a correction for about a month now. This has been the most severe pullback since the rally began back in March 2009. The character of the market has changed, with the most notable aspect being that the dip-buyers have lost their power to build on bounces. The bulls have produced some good spikes to the upside but the momentum fizzles out as we hit overhead resistance.
In theory, dealing with a downtrend is pretty easy. You just stand aside and wait until the trend turns back up. In practice, though, it is much more difficult, because we tend to have very enthusiastic countertrend bounces within downtrends. Market players are always very anxious to get in front a market turn, so bounces often tend to be very big and quick. We had a classic example Thursday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 284 points. Over the last two days we have given back 235 points of that gain, which is also a classic characteristic of a market correction.
The challenge for traders is to profit from these bear-market bounces without buying into the claims that a bottom has been formed. During every downtrend, we hear constant calls by market pundits that we have hit bottom and are about to embark on a major rally. If the market is going down, some folks will always try to convince you that if you don't rush in now, you are sure to be left behind as we blast higher.
Some of the bottom-callers will be lucky and actually make good calls, but the vast majority won't. Most market players would be far better off if they simply ignored these calls and were distrustful of market bounces. That doesn't mean you don't play them, but just don't trust them to turn into "V"-shaped recoveries. Although you wouldn't know it from the action of the past year, low-volume "V"-shaped bounces back to new highs are a rare thing.
The key to successful trading in a downtrend is to have the right time frames. If you are playing bounces, you should have a short-term time frame and should be watching carefully as we hit key overhead resistance. It is extremely important not to let trades turn into investments.
Shorting during a downtrend can be a lot more difficult than it sounds because of the propensity for sharp spikes and short squeezes. It takes some resolve to hold on to a short position when we have a day like last Thursday. Shorts have struggled badly over the past year, and I suspect many have a tough time staying with their positions when the market starts to perk up. That is the nature of the dark side -- it requires discipline to be successful.
The main point I'm trying to make this morning is that during a downtrend, we need to ignore the constant bottom-calling. We want to play the bounces but we don't want to believe that they are anything other than a short-lived countertrend move. If the market does continue to turn up, then we'll adjust, but we have to respect the major trend and not constantly bet against it.
This morning we have a bounce to start the day, mainly due to some strength in oil-related stocks, which were pounded yesterday. Overseas markets were mostly red as they reacted to our late-day selloff. The bulls have an opportunity to get something going this morning -- we'll see what they can make of it.
----------------------------------
Briefing.com vahendusel
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LOCM +5.2%, LAYN +4.3% (light volume), GAME +1.1% (light volume).
M&A news: DIVX +23.7% (Sonic to acquire DivX for ~9.83/share in cash and stock).
Select financial related names showing strength: HIG +2.0%, HBAN +1.8%, WFC +1.3%, BAC +1.0%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RTP +1.9%, BHP +1.7%, HMY +1.7%, AU +1.6%, NEM +1.6%, BBL +1.5%, MT +1.5%.
Select oil/gas related names rebounding: ME +3.0%, WFT +2.4%, STO +2.4%, RIG +2.1%, BP +2.0%, PBR +1.9%, APA 1.9%, HAL +1.7% (to provide update on Gulf of Mexico operations).
Select European drug names ticking higher: SHPGY +2.6%, GSK +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), AZN +1.6% .
Other news: IRDM +13.8% (light volume; announces comprehensive plan for constellation), SNSS +10.1% (Sunesis Pharma Completes Consultative Review Process With EMA for Voreloxin in AML), CNX +5.2% (resolves litigation related to Buchanan Mine), AMGN +4.4% (FDA approves Prolia, an injectable treatment for postmenopausal women with osteoporosis who are at high risk for fractures), VVUS +4.1% (reports positive results from Phase 3 study of Avanafil in erectile dysfunction presented at AUA Annual Meeting).
Analyst comments: MON +4.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; also added to Conviction Buy List ), CCL +2.9% (initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna), RFMD +2.6% (initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee), JOYG +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), NSM +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), JPM +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CSIQ -18.6% (has postponed financial results as a result of the commencement of an investigation), PSS -8.2%, WPRT -3.5%, LGF -1.9%.
M&A news: SNIC -6.6% (light volume; Sonic to acquire DivX for ~9.83/share in cash and stock).
Select European financials trading modestly lower: AIB -5.1%, LYG -1.8%, BCS -1.4%.
Other news: FAF -57.1% (trading post spin-off), LTS -14.9% (to raise $14 million in a private placement transaction), NGG -13.8% (trading ex dividend), MF -7.8% (announced the commencement of an underwritten public offering for gross proceeds up to $150 million in shares of its common stock), PVG -6.6% (announces secondary public offering of 8,827,429 common units), NUS -3.7% (light volume; announces commencement of 4.46 mln share secondary stock offering, announces increase of $150 mln in stock repurchase program; $46 mln remaining on prior authorization), PUK -1.0% (confirms their proposed termination of agreement to combine with AIA Group Ltd).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/2/2010 8:27 AM EDT
No life is so hard that you can't make it easier by the way you take it.
-- Ellen Glasgow
The market has been undergoing a correction for about a month now. This has been the most severe pullback since the rally began back in March 2009. The character of the market has changed, with the most notable aspect being that the dip-buyers have lost their power to build on bounces. The bulls have produced some good spikes to the upside but the momentum fizzles out as we hit overhead resistance.
In theory, dealing with a downtrend is pretty easy. You just stand aside and wait until the trend turns back up. In practice, though, it is much more difficult, because we tend to have very enthusiastic countertrend bounces within downtrends. Market players are always very anxious to get in front a market turn, so bounces often tend to be very big and quick. We had a classic example Thursday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 284 points. Over the last two days we have given back 235 points of that gain, which is also a classic characteristic of a market correction.
The challenge for traders is to profit from these bear-market bounces without buying into the claims that a bottom has been formed. During every downtrend, we hear constant calls by market pundits that we have hit bottom and are about to embark on a major rally. If the market is going down, some folks will always try to convince you that if you don't rush in now, you are sure to be left behind as we blast higher.
Some of the bottom-callers will be lucky and actually make good calls, but the vast majority won't. Most market players would be far better off if they simply ignored these calls and were distrustful of market bounces. That doesn't mean you don't play them, but just don't trust them to turn into "V"-shaped recoveries. Although you wouldn't know it from the action of the past year, low-volume "V"-shaped bounces back to new highs are a rare thing.
The key to successful trading in a downtrend is to have the right time frames. If you are playing bounces, you should have a short-term time frame and should be watching carefully as we hit key overhead resistance. It is extremely important not to let trades turn into investments.
Shorting during a downtrend can be a lot more difficult than it sounds because of the propensity for sharp spikes and short squeezes. It takes some resolve to hold on to a short position when we have a day like last Thursday. Shorts have struggled badly over the past year, and I suspect many have a tough time staying with their positions when the market starts to perk up. That is the nature of the dark side -- it requires discipline to be successful.
The main point I'm trying to make this morning is that during a downtrend, we need to ignore the constant bottom-calling. We want to play the bounces but we don't want to believe that they are anything other than a short-lived countertrend move. If the market does continue to turn up, then we'll adjust, but we have to respect the major trend and not constantly bet against it.
This morning we have a bounce to start the day, mainly due to some strength in oil-related stocks, which were pounded yesterday. Overseas markets were mostly red as they reacted to our late-day selloff. The bulls have an opportunity to get something going this morning -- we'll see what they can make of it.
----------------------------------
Briefing.com vahendusel
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LOCM +5.2%, LAYN +4.3% (light volume), GAME +1.1% (light volume).
M&A news: DIVX +23.7% (Sonic to acquire DivX for ~9.83/share in cash and stock).
Select financial related names showing strength: HIG +2.0%, HBAN +1.8%, WFC +1.3%, BAC +1.0%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RTP +1.9%, BHP +1.7%, HMY +1.7%, AU +1.6%, NEM +1.6%, BBL +1.5%, MT +1.5%.
Select oil/gas related names rebounding: ME +3.0%, WFT +2.4%, STO +2.4%, RIG +2.1%, BP +2.0%, PBR +1.9%, APA 1.9%, HAL +1.7% (to provide update on Gulf of Mexico operations).
Select European drug names ticking higher: SHPGY +2.6%, GSK +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), AZN +1.6% .
Other news: IRDM +13.8% (light volume; announces comprehensive plan for constellation), SNSS +10.1% (Sunesis Pharma Completes Consultative Review Process With EMA for Voreloxin in AML), CNX +5.2% (resolves litigation related to Buchanan Mine), AMGN +4.4% (FDA approves Prolia, an injectable treatment for postmenopausal women with osteoporosis who are at high risk for fractures), VVUS +4.1% (reports positive results from Phase 3 study of Avanafil in erectile dysfunction presented at AUA Annual Meeting).
Analyst comments: MON +4.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; also added to Conviction Buy List ), CCL +2.9% (initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna), RFMD +2.6% (initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee), JOYG +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), NSM +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), JPM +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CSIQ -18.6% (has postponed financial results as a result of the commencement of an investigation), PSS -8.2%, WPRT -3.5%, LGF -1.9%.
M&A news: SNIC -6.6% (light volume; Sonic to acquire DivX for ~9.83/share in cash and stock).
Select European financials trading modestly lower: AIB -5.1%, LYG -1.8%, BCS -1.4%.
Other news: FAF -57.1% (trading post spin-off), LTS -14.9% (to raise $14 million in a private placement transaction), NGG -13.8% (trading ex dividend), MF -7.8% (announced the commencement of an underwritten public offering for gross proceeds up to $150 million in shares of its common stock), PVG -6.6% (announces secondary public offering of 8,827,429 common units), NUS -3.7% (light volume; announces commencement of 4.46 mln share secondary stock offering, announces increase of $150 mln in stock repurchase program; $46 mln remaining on prior authorization), PUK -1.0% (confirms their proposed termination of agreement to combine with AIA Group Ltd).
April Pending Home Sales m/m +6.0% vs +4.3% consensus, prior +7.1%
Aprilli kinnisvarastatistika võiks olla siis veel viimast korda positiivselt 'moonutatud' aprillis lõppenud kinnisvarastiimulite poolt. Seega jääme huviga ootama maikuu näite.
Watch Out Shorts: Obama Just Leaked Friday's Jobs Report
http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-out-shorts-obama-just-leaked-fridays-jobs-report-2010-6
http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-out-shorts-obama-just-leaked-fridays-jobs-report-2010-6
Kartke karu
Pärast viimase 70 aasta rängimat maikuud on suurenemas hirm, et algul lihtsa korrektsioonina tundunud liikumine võib osutuda täiemahuliseks karuturuks.
http://www.ap3.ee/?PublicationId=91f610a7-49bb-466c-9214-161b6098c436
:))
Pärast viimase 70 aasta rängimat maikuud on suurenemas hirm, et algul lihtsa korrektsioonina tundunud liikumine võib osutuda täiemahuliseks karuturuks.
http://www.ap3.ee/?PublicationId=91f610a7-49bb-466c-9214-161b6098c436
:))
Tänase päeva liikumine oli igaljuhul väga tugev ja muljetavaldav. Kui paljud kartsid sarnaselt reedesele päevalõpu müüki, siis sedapuhku jäi see tulemata ning pärastlõunal sellele panustanud karud pidid lihtsalt enne uut börsipäeva algust oma lühikesed positsioonid riskide maandamiseks ära katma. ES futuur tõusis päeva lõpuks 1100 punkti alla ning homme tõotab tulla kahtlemata väga huvitav börsipäev.
Äripäev - the ULTIMATE contrarian indicator? :-D
Karum6mm, kusjuures nii ongi - kui Äripäev hakkab mingi trendi osas trummi lööma, siis on pea kindel, et it's about to (b)end.
Muidugi ei ole ÄP selles üksi. Mingile suht normaalses tõusutrendis aktsiale on täielik death blow, kui Barron's positiivse kobinaga välja tuleb. Kunagi sai huvi pärast tehtud statistikat BusinessWeeki aktsiasoovituste osas - tulemuseks oleks see. Ja kusjuures alta aikayksikön!
Muidugi ei ole ÄP selles üksi. Mingile suht normaalses tõusutrendis aktsiale on täielik death blow, kui Barron's positiivse kobinaga välja tuleb. Kunagi sai huvi pärast tehtud statistikat BusinessWeeki aktsiasoovituste osas - tulemuseks oleks see. Ja kusjuures alta aikayksikön!
asi on muidugi ka selles, et kui kogu aeg midagi sellist kommenteerida, siis neid turutipust tehtud soovitusi koguneb siin paratamatult omajagu. Nimesid ma ei nimeta, Peeter, küll sa ise tead :-)
väike (börsi)päeva mõttetera kah siia:
"Olen paljusid asju ette näinud - näiteks majanduskriisi - ja olen inimestele alati õpetanud et võlgu elamine ei ole õige"
"Olen paljusid asju ette näinud - näiteks majanduskriisi - ja olen inimestele alati õpetanud et võlgu elamine ei ole õige"