Börsipäev 2. detsember

Investeerimine
1

Dubai läbirääkimised kreeditoridega $26 miljardilise võla restruktureerimisel on rahustamas investorite närve ning taastamas riskiisu nii aktsia- kui tooraineturul. Pärast S&P500 1.2%-list tõusu on ka Aasia börsid täna hommikul positiivsel territooriumil kauplemas (Jaapan +0.38%, Hongkong +1.07%, Austraalia +0.9%). Kulla unts vallutab aga järjekordselt uusi tippe, hektel kauplemas 1212 dollari juures.

Olulisemateks makroks USA-s on kell 15.15 avaldatav novembrikuu ADP employment (konsensus -150 000) ning kell 21.00 Föderaalreservi ülevaade majandusest (Beige Book).

2

Marc Faber annab Bloombergi intervjuus oma nägemuse Dubai sündmustele ning selgitab, miks USA valitsuse võlakirjad pole koht kuhu üks terve mõistusega investor oma raha investeeriks. Link

3

EPFR Globali hinnangul on sellel aastal liikunud investorite raha järgnevalt (link):

So far this year (up until November 25), emerging market equity funds have seen inflows worth $58.6 billion. In contrast, US equity funds have suffered outflows of $80 billion, after more than $74 billion of redemptions in 2008. This may reflect investor disillusionment after a dismal decade for Wall Street together with the sense that emerging markets are the only growth story left. Most of the other equity sectors have been broadly flat.

Commodity funds have received a smaller inflow of just $14 billion but these are still record-breaking numbers in what is quite a small sector. Doubtless, another record for gold will only excite more interest.

Meanwhile, the lack of yield in money market funds saw $3.6 billion of withdrawals from this sector in the latest week; income-seeking investors have instead been turning to US bond funds which took in $2.65 billion last week, and more than $80 billion so far this year.

4

Tänases FTs on toodud häid näiteid, kuid USA ettevõtted on taas hakanud kergekäeliselt laenu võtma - loe siit.

Some of the most controversial financing practices of the credit-bubble years – from cov lite loans to Pik toggle notes and dividend recap exercises – have returned to Wall Street, stoking fears that debt markets are growing overheated.

Artikkel lõppeb väljavõttega Fedi novembrikuu kohtumise kokkuvõttest:

“the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates including the possibility of excessive risk-taking”.

5

Deutsche Bank toob välja, kuidas kokku on USA võla suhe SKPsse tagasi 1929 aastate tasemel:

Kasvav võlakoormus (eriti valitsuste) on DB makrotiimi hinnangul üks peamine pikaajaline risk, millele hetkel keegi pole suutnud korralikku lahendust pakkuda (DB & ülejäänud turg tundub hetkel ootavat, et majanduskasv hakkab automaatselt võla/skp suhet vähendama ja see saab olema väga pikaajaline protsess. Üks oluline eeldus sellele on, et võlakirjade intressimäär püsib madalal...).

6

Londonis on Vodafone 2% plussis, kuna Credit Suisse tõstis ettevõtte hinnasihi kõrgemale ja kinnitas outperform soovitust:

"The stock remains at the low end of its historic price to earnings trading range and has yet to reflect a cyclical recovery which is already priced in to the rest of the stock market."

Näeme Vodafone'i aktsial samuti korralikku tõusuruumi ja tutvustasime seda hiljuti ka Pro all (aktsia kaupleb lisaks Londonile ka USAs sümboli all VOD).

7
ADP kehv:
November ADP Employment Change -169K vs -150K consensus
8
Hedge-fund veterans start new fund - WSJ
WSJ reports four founding partners of former Citigroup hedge fund Old Lane, including its ex-chief executive Guru Ramakrishnan, have launched a co that is one of the biggest U.S. hedge-fund start-ups of the year. The New York-based fund, Meru Capital Group, started trading Tuesday with some $300 million in capital, more than $75 million of that belonging to Mr. Ramakrishnan and partners, say people familiar with the matter.
9

Euroopa turud on terve päev nulli lähedal saaginud ning eilsete sulgumistasemete juurest peaksid futuuride põhjal avanema ka USA indeksid.

Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0,04%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,12%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0,11%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0,22%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,58%
Venemaa MICEX -0,12%
Poola WIG +0,20%

Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0,11%
Hongkongi Hang Seng +0,80%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1,06%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,78%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1,48%
Tai Set 50 -2,71%
India Sensex 30 -0,16%

10

Rev Shark: Doubt If You Must, But Respect the Action
12/02/2009 8:28 AM

The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact than a drunken man is happier than a sober one.
-- George Bernard Shaw

Many market players were surprised by yesterday's strength. It wasn't only that we had broad-based gains, but also that there was real vigor in some of the action. Nasdaq volume picked up but the NYSE saw it slow slightly. Most interesting was that market players were aggressively chasing pockets of momentum in small-cap China names, gold and some semiconductors.

It certainly was positive action, and now the S&P 500 and DJIA are on the cusp of new highs for the year. The technical patterns remain quite positive, but despite the positive action there are a few niggling concerns. Banks and financials have been underperforming, especially Goldman Sachs which many consider to be the key stock in the group.

Another concern is that despite yesterday's very positive breadth, the recent strength has been quite narrow. Small-caps have been underperforming by a great degree and even the Nasdaq has a way to go before it is close to recent highs like the S&P 500 and DJIA. The hot-money momentum players are active primarily in China names, but it is a fairly small group of hot stocks lately.

What is particularly tricky about this market is that despite the downright frothy action in some pockets, there continues to be an undercurrent of skepticism and doubt. The Investor's Intelligence polls show that there are 50% bulls and only 16.7% bears -- which is quite extreme -- but the attitude of many of the bulls is, "Stocks are acting well and I'll stick with them, but I don't trust them very much and I'll be quick to sell at the first sign of trouble."

This persistent skepticism is caused primarily by market players' inability to reconcile the jubilant and buoyant stock market action with a struggling and still very slow economy as well as unemployment that is still rising. The market often marches to its own drummer, but the difference in attitude between Wall Street and Main Street has seldom been as striking as it is now.

The ironic thing about the skepticism is that it probably helps to keep the market elevated. The folks sitting on the sidelines keep waiting for the correction that they feel is inevitable, but the longer it goes without happening, the more inclined they are to inch in to the market because they are so tired of missing out on the gains. They might not trust the market much, but they want to attend the party at least for a little while.

I've been saying this for quite a while, but it still remains key: Don't be too quick to anticipate weakness. Technically the market has done little wrong, and while you can find some negatives if you dig down, they just haven't mattered much lately. We have to defer to the positive price action regardless of what we may think about the fundamental conditions.

Early indications are slightly positive. Gold is up sharply again as the dollar continues its struggles. As long as the dollar remains under pressure, it will provide a tailwind for this market.

No positions.

11

Gapping down in reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: WAG -3.5%, PDLI -3.0%... Select European financials showing weakness: RBS -6.9% (Times reported Britain's Treasury took control of the bank's bonus pool), LYG -4.6%, ING -4.0%, CS -2.8%, BCS -1.4% (FT reports that co receives surprise 1 bln pounds in BGI sale and DJ reports that co says impairment guidance unchanged by Dubai events)... Other news: HEB -28.3% (receives Complete Response Letter from FDA on Ampligen New Drug Application for chronic fatigue syndrome), RGNC -5.8% (files for common unit shelf offering and announces 10 mln common unit offering), SWS -5.4% (announces a 4.1 mln share common stock offering pursuant to an effective shelf), SEED -4.0% (still checking), CLFC -3.3% (raising gross proceeds of $12.8 million in private placement of common stock), CAST -2.7% (prices 5.93 mln common share offering at $6.85/share), SAP -1.9% (still checking for anything specific), NOK -0.7% (sets key financial targets and devices & services operational priorities for 2010)... Analyst comments: STZ -2.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), MTL -2.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), MITI -2.1% (light volume; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord), ALK -1.3% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), POM -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse),

Gapping up in reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GIII +9.1% (light volume), GAME +3.2%, SNDA +3.1%... Select metals.mining names showing continued strength: HL +3.6%, GSS +3.6%, NG +3.0%, KGC +2.4%, AUY +2.3%, RTP +2.1%, EGO +2.0%, BBL +1.8%, MT +1.6%, GOLD +1.6%, AU +1.5%, GDX +1.5%, ABX +1.4%, GG +1.3%, BHP +1.2%, GLD +1.1%... Select airline names showing strength following Morgan Stanley upgrade of the sector: AMR +4.5%, AAI +4.3%, ALGT +3.5%, DAL +3.3%, UAUA +2.9%, JBLU +2.7%, LUV +1.6%, ALGT +1.5% (reports November '09 traffic; RPMs increased 19.5% y/y and ASMs increased 25.3%)... Other news: DYAX +27.4% (announces FDA approval of KALBITOR (ecallantide) for the treatment of acute attacks of hereditary angioedema in patients 16 years of age and older), ABCW +26.1% (announces investment agreement), SNTS +25.9% (announces FDA approval of Schering-Plough HealthCare Products' ZEGERID OTC), RAME +8.0% (reports 2009 production expected to meet or exceed prior guidance and says that all changes to financial statements are non-cash items, results in increase to net income for 2008 through first nine months of 2009), NVAX +7.5% (reports 'positive' clinical results from pivotal study of H1N1 influenza vaccine in Mexico), HEAT +3.0% (profiled in New America section of IBD), GSIT +2.9% (still checking)... Analyst comments: RFMD +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), KBH +3.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), ARRS +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), AGO +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), SYY +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T), HDB +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), STI +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse).

12

Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 2091K (consensus is a draw of 400K); gasoline inventories had a build of 3996K (consensus is a build of 700K); distillate inventories had a draw of 1170K (consensus is a draw of 150K).

13
Geithner says will soon be making suggestions to Congress on how to end TARP program safely; 'close to the point' where U.S. can stop making new TARP commitments -Reuters
14
Japan stimulus package could likely total JPY20 trillion, according to Nikkei - Reuters
15
Russia GDP decline to exceed official forecast of 8.5 pct fall in 2009, according to Fin Min- Reuters

General Motors plans to cut approx 8,300 jobs at European arm Opel, according to sources - Reuters
16
Fed's Lacker says timing of Fed exit from measures to hinge on strong but not "especially vigorous" growth; to fight inflation, Fed cannot be paralyzed by patches of lingering weakness - Reuters
17
CNBC pealt hea reklaam:
Kui lapse käest küsiti, et mis nõu ta oma isale annab hetke majandusolukorras, siis laps vastas: "Kuluta ennast masust välja."
18
Bank of America's Ken Lewis says does not plan to be there as CEO next year - Reuters
19
Fed's Beige Book says says economic conditions have improved modestly since Oct 21 - Reuters
Fed's Beige Book says labor market conditions weak; signs of stabilization, scattered improvement - Reuters
20
AONE-l tugev ostupress peal, hetkel mingit uudist ei leia.