- Peale eilset tugevat tõusu on USA aktsiaturud avanemas miinuses. Nasdaqi futuurid sisuliselt nullis ning S&P 500 futuurid 0.2% miinuses. Eilsed head uudised ostujuhtide optimismi osas vajavad kinnitamist tööjõuturu poolt, järgmine verstapost on seega reedene tööjõuraport.
- Täna avaldatakse veebruari autodemüügi näitajad. Lisaks on Alan Greenspan pidamas New Yorgis kõnet Economic Club`s, milles põhjendab jooksevkonto defitsiidi suurust.
- General Electric (GE) nõukogu esimees Jeff Immelt teatas eilsel aktionäride koosolekul, et ootab Ida Euroopa, Venemaa ja sõjajärgse Iraagi ülesehitustöödest saadavat käivet 2005 aastla 5 miljardi dollari suuruseks. See tähendab kolmekordset tõusu.
-Pooljuhtide sektorisse tuli üle pika aja taas rõõmustavaid sõnumeid. Kõrgemad reitingud said nii Texas Instruments (TXN), Micron Technology (MU), Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS).
-Dollar suutis ööga taas uusi tippe murda ning hetkel euro vastu 0.5% plussis tasemel 1.2384 usd/eur.
Gary B. Smith:
Rev Shark:
Due to its complexities, mood swings and arbitrary nature, the stock market begs for constant analysis and study. Professionals with MBA's and Average Joe's with six-packs are always ready to offer their opinions as to where things are headed. Predicting the market future is an intriguing and addictive activity that is not only an entertaining pastime but a giant industry.
The danger of constant market evaluation and analysis is that it can freeze us into inaction. While we wait for things to play out as envisioned, we sit back, focus on the big picture and ignore the opportunities that flit across our screens.
This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as "analysis paralysis." The inclination to evaluate constantly rather than act can make an investor feel safe and secure but it rarely is highly profitable. The only way we are going to make good money is to act. When opportunities arise, you must be willing to attack and take advantage of them. If you are wrong and are burned you lick your wounds and attack again.
Of course, effective attacks require good planning, but the market has a habit of moving before we feel ready. It happens to me constantly where I envision the market moving in a certain way and then it begins to play out before I am ready. As I make mental adjustments I miss out on the early opportunities that are often the best. Make sure you engage in planning and analysis, but maintain an offensive mindset. Those who are willing to pounce on opportunities are the ones who make money.
The paradox of the market is that success requires a balance between patience and action. Don't focus so much on preparation and strategy that you fail to move quickly and decisively. One of the most frustrating things about the market is that it never does exactly what we think it will.
So we have to be ready to modify our plans and be quick to attack when conditions are right. The best investors know when to be passive and when to be aggressive. Cultivate patience but also learn to attack quickly and relentlessly when the time is right, and you will profit.
Although I remain ambivalent about overall market direction I found myself attacking a number of positions yesterday. The broad strength on low volume wasn't what I envisioned but it would be foolish for me to forego the opportunities that were popping up. I could continue to analyze future market direction or jump in and make some trades. No matter how skeptical I may be about the health of this market I'm prepared to attack aggressively when good trades appear.
This market is sending a very mixed message. There are some signs of health, such as the very positive breadth and the potential triple top breakouts in the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. However, there are some things to be concerned about as well, such as the meek volume, strength in heavy cyclicals such as steel, oils and homebuilders, and the poor relative strength of many technology stocks.
The Nasdaq managed to move over its 50-day moving average yesterday but it did so on a low-volume bounce off the 2000 support level. It certainly can keep on moving but it is very vulnerable to a quick reversal. If it spends some time consolidating above the 2050 mark it will be very healthy but the possibility of a pullback is high.
Market participants are focusing very heavily on the monthly employment numbers due out on Friday. The bulls are looking for job growth to finally kick in and break this market higher. The bears are expecting another lackluster report to keep the pressure on the market and if numbers are good they look for concerns about increasing interest rates to keep a lid on things.
In the meantime we have a pretty good trading environment. There has been quite a bit of action in certain areas and there definitely are some hot money traders willing to chase strength.
Early indications are close to flat. The dollar is rallying, which is helping Japanese exporters, but indices are mixed as financial stocks struggle. We have vehicle sales data out today but little else of interest on the agenda.
Chip stocks put in an impressive reversal yesterday on a downgrade. We'll have to watch them again for clues as to health in tech land. Breadth will be very important, of course. Strong breadth can make up for a multitude of other sins.
Be ready to attack if you see opportunities.
