Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- JP Morgan alustab Apple Computeri (AAPL) aktsiate katmist Neutraalse reitinguga. Nupukese pealkirjaks "Innovation Has No Bounds, But Valuation Does." JP analüütikud nendivad, et kuidi firma on suutnud turule tuua uusi vägevaid tooteid (iPod jne), siis praegused aktsia hinna tasemed diskonteerivad seda juba sisse. Firmal 12 dollarit raha aktsia kohta ning see on ka firma kõige suuremaks tuluallikaks.
- Tehnoloogiatoodete distribuutor Ingram Micro (IM) kinnitab täna hommikul oma Q4 prognoose. Mäletatavasti kinnitas oma prognoose ka eelmise nädala keskel suurem konkurent Tech Data (TECD). Need firmad on tehnoloogia pakkumise/nõudluse üheks parimaks indikaatoriks.
- Võrguseadmete tootja 3Com (COMS) on täna hommikul 5% plussis, kuna maailma teiseks suurim IT-teenuste firma EDS (EDS) teatas, et hakkab COMS-i seadmete edasimüüjaks. See on üpris märkimisväärne võit 3Com-i jaoks.
- Euroopa suurim pooljuhtide tootmiseks vajaminevate seadmete valmistaja ASML Holding (ASML) teatas, et 31. detsembri seisuga on tellimuste hulk tõenäoliselt prognoositust suurem. Kui juba ASML, mis on viimaste aastate üks kroonilisemaid kasumihoiatuste andjaid, räägib et asjad on paranemas, siis asjad on tõepoolest paranemas. Aga ASML on ka aktsia, mida tuleb osta kasumihoiatuste peale ning müüa kui firma räägib sellest kui hästi äri läheb.
- Tänahommikused kõrgelennulised biotech aktsiad on:
Thermagenesis (KOOL) - SunTrust tuli välja analüüsiga, milles kutsub pisikest tüvirakkudega seotud uurimistööd tegevat firmat turu poolt veel vähetuntuks. Nende arvates tuleb firma järgmise 18 kuu jooksul välja 4 uue tootega, mis peaksid ka investorite tähelepanu köitma.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC) - sai USA ravimiameti käest oma peamisele vähiravimile fast-track staatuse, mis tähedab, et ravim vaadatakse üle kiirkorras. Turule peaks see jõudma siiski alles 2006/2007 aastal.
- Vähemalt kolm 1. järgu maaklerfirmat on täna hommikul Inteli (INTC) neljanda kvartali käibe-ja kasumiprognoose tõstnud. Mäletatavasti on firmal neljapäeva õhtul kvartali vahearuanne plaanis.
- Warnaco (WRNC) on põhjast päris toreda põrke teinud, kuid tundub, et eile leiti ka esimene vastupanutase. Käive oli päris suur, kuid liikumist praktiliselt ei olnud. See näitab müügihuvi. Ma usun, et väike korrektsioon on varsti toimumas. See on siiski väga tervitatavaks nähtuseks, kuna lubab seda huvitavat firmat veel odavalt osta. Kindlasti olen oma positsioonile lisamas $14-15 vahel. Aasta-poolteise pärast olen nõus need loovutama ostjatele hinnaga $20-22 tükist:
- FAO Inc (FAOO) halted. news pending. uhoh.
- Karu või Pull? Pigem karu täna.
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVshark:
The well-prepared bull who had been ready, willing and able to act has been presented with some outstanding opportunities to make money recently. The key has been to not sit by idly while the indices break to new highs, but to seize the opportunities and take advantage when they exist.
After hearing all of the arguments from the intellectual bears about why this market is doomed, it can be extremely easy to temper your aggressiveness and be cautious. The bears are probably right about the market being expensive and extended. However, when opportunities to make money are appearing like they are now, the best course of action is to act boldly and decisively and not fight the trend.
There are times when it pays to proceed tentatively and with extreme caution, but there are other times when you need to be aggressive and to take advantage of the opportunities. For a small-cap momentum trader like myself, the recent action has offered some of the best trading since the bubble days of 2000. I know it will not last forever; it will end badly at some point and many folks will be burned when it does. The bears will say, "I told you so," and their fears and worries will prove correct.
But for now the bears are wrong.
The anticipation of doom will rob you of opportunities. Yes, all good things come to an end, but that doesn't mean that you should handcuff yourself in anticipation of that inevitability. If you see an opportunity on your screen, take advantage of it. The little bear that is sitting on your left shoulder whispering in your ear about the foolhardy risks you are taking should be ignored until he can show you some solid proof that his concerns are actually producing poor technical action in the market.
The biggest mistake most investors make is to obsess over what might happen. We worry about a sudden market crash or a terrorist act or the possibility that the guy who has been bearish for the last five years may suddenly prove to be correct, and we ignore the good charts that are right in front of us.
Focus on what is happening right now and if things start to turn bad, then act. But for now, seize the day. Take advantage of the opportunities that are on your screen as the market breaks to new highs in this seasonally strongest time of the year. There will be plenty of time to worry about the negatives when they are reflected in the market action. Right now the bulls have the ball and are racking up points.
In the early going we have fairly flat to slightly negative action. Overseas markets are mixed. The dollar is stable and gold is down slightly. The economic calendar is fairly quiet with just auto and truck sales on the agenda.
Reuters is reporting that the No. 2 wanted man in Iraq has been either killed or captured. We have not had any "Saddam is captured" rumors for a while but this may serve as an impetus. Don't be surprised if talk about Saddam's fate pops up during a market pullback.
One favorable development yesterday for speculative traders was that the biotech HOLDR (BBH:AMEX) moved back up over its 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-October. I'll be watching this group carefully for follow through. If the biotechs attract some buying, that will bode well for continued momentum in the smaller-cap plays.
Futuurid: Naz-0.24% SP-0.23%
sB
