http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS
Jan PPI (MoM) +0.8% vs +0.3% consensus.
January Core PPI y/y +4.2% vs +3.8% consensus, prior +4.3%.
January PPI y/y -1.0% vs -2.4% consensus, prior -0.9%.
Jan Core PPI (MoM) +0.4% vs +0.1% consensus.
enne Dubaid oli tal juba 911 000 USD auhinnaraha teenitud karjääri jooksul
S&P500 turu eel +2.1% @796 punkti, Nasdaq100 +1.5% @1198 punkti ning nafta +3.7% @ $35.9.
Saksamaa DAX +0.72%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.25%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.25%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.55%
Venemaa MICEX +3.70%
Poola WIG +3.20%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.31%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.06%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.77%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.13%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.38%
Tai Set 50 +0.59%
India Sensex 30 +0.30%
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/19/2009 8:09 AM EST
A mighty flame followeth a tiny spark.
-- Dante
Ever since the disappointing bank bailout announcement by Secretary Geithner a little over a week ago, the market mood has been very gloomy and negative. Neither the passage of the huge stimulus bill nor the announcement of a mortgage bailout bill has been able to appease investors.
It isn't only that investors lack confidence in these governmental efforts -- there continues to be a steady drumbeat of negative news, and what's worse is that the market does not seem to have expected it to be this bad. We are still struggling to price it in, and we are not seeing many situations where stocks are rallying in the face of bad news.
The good news about all this doom and gloom is that it may take only a little spark of something positive to get a bounce going. Many folks are poorly positioned now for upside, and that makes the chances of a short squeeze and some chasing by underinvested longs likely should the mood shift a bit.
The most likely source of a positive spark is some sort of news about a bank program. There has even been speculation that a nationalization move could be something that adds a feeling of certainty and brings in some money.
The big problem right now is that there is so much uncertainty, not only about whether the stimulus and mortgage plans will work but even more so about what is going to happen with banks that are still holding many trillions in toxic assets. Any plan is going to have plenty of critics, but as far as the market is concerned, the uncertainty of no plan is even worse.
Technically, the indices look terrible, but they are oversold and conditions are ripe for at least a minor bounce. If the right news hits, we could see some scrambling to add long exposure, but at the moment the only news on the horizon is the weekly unemployment claims announcement, which is very unlikely to be comforting, especially if there are another 615,000 new unemployment claims as expected.
Keep an eye open for a potential spark that gives us some temporary relief. It may not develop into a mighty flame, but it would keep the bears from becoming too comfortable.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BNHNA +23.2%, EXAC +22.2%, WFMI +16.3% (also upgraded to Buy at Jefferies & Co and upgraded to Buy at Pali Research), PCLN +14.4%, S +14.0%, AAP +11.6% (also upgraded to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James), ORLY +9.9%, WPI +6.8%, DBRN +6.2% (also upgraded to Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey), GME +5.7%, CVS +4.7%, DSX +4.2%, SNPS +3.5%, DENN +2.5% (light volume)... Select financials rebounding led by overseas trading: LYG +12.0%, RBS +10.2% (U.K. considers giving RBS bailout leeway - WSJ), BCS +10.0% (Barclays not planning to sell Barclays Global Investors, according to source - DJ), GNW +5.2%, UBS +4.1% (UBS to turn over some client names to settle U.S. criminal probe; to pay $780 mln fine, according to source - WSJ), C +2.4%, GS +1.6%, HIG +1.5%, MS +1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: RTP +5.7%, AAUK +3.9%, FCX +3.0%, MT +1.5%... Select oil/gas related names trading higher: SNP +5.1%, STO +4.2%, REP +2.5%, TOT +1.9%, RDS.A +1.1%, E +1.0%, BP +1.0%... Select drybulk shipping names trading higher: DRYS +4.8%, EXM +4.3%... Other news: EXPE +10.8% (up in sympathy with PCLN), VRNM +7.8% (BP and Verenium form leading cellulosic ethanol venture to deliver advanced biofuels), ABK +7.4% (In talks with regulators on new insurer; finalizing plans for new muni-bond insurer - DJ), AZO +3.6% (up in sympathy with AAP and ORLY), ERIC +3.6% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: CHK +3.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BMRN -18.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup, downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia, downgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart and downgraded to Hold at Benchmark), EXPE -15.6%, NTRI -11.9%, NILE -9.7%, NM -9.7%, LDK -9.2%, AXA -7.2% (light volume), ITRI -4.1%, PQ -4.1% (light volume), HPQ -3.8%, KGC -3.5%, WMB -3.4% (light volume), XTO -3.4%, SHPGY -2.6%, APA -2.0%... Select railroad related names pulling back in early trade: BNI -4.3% (Surface Transportation Board reverses prior decision regarding litigation between BNSF Railway Company and Western Fuels/Laramie River), CSX -3.1%, UNP -2.3%... Other news: CRXL -6.1% (still checking), CCJ -4.9% (announces bought deal offering of common shares), NVS -2.2% (down in sympathy with SHPGY), WHR -1.5% (says has received a grand jury subpoena from the US DoJ; says to their knowledge no charges have been filed against the co or any of its employees; also downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James)... Analyst comments: OXY -1.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays and downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein).
Seega - oluline ei ole see, milline on Eesti riigi võlatase täna (ehk siis pea olematu), vaid see, kui suureks võib vahepeal kasvada. Nii et ei ole lambist see Eesti CDSi tõus.
Oodatust jupp maad väiksem varude vähenemine.
Muide, Kaia auhinnaraha läheb enamuses tulumaksuks, treeneritele, investoritele/sponsoritele, abistajatele.
Eelmine aasta kuskil hilissügisel öeldi, et nüüd võib aasta lõpus paar kuud ka endale raha teenida.
Võistluste turniiritabel:
http://www.sonyericssonwtatour.com/1/global/Pdfs/events/2009/dubai_draws.pdf
MSM , vaata paeva lopust
Märtsi leping +8.3% @ $37.5
Aprilli leping +5.2% @ $39.3
Detsembri leping +1.0% @ $47.2