Don't Fall Off the Balance Beam This Week
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/19/2007 7:56 AM EST
Happiness is not a matter of intensity but of balance and order and rhythm and harmony.
-- Thomas Merton
Thanksgiving week presents us with an intriguing mix of market conditions. There is no question that the mood has been sour recently as investors contemplate how bad the bad-debt fallout will be and whether the Fed will ride to the rescue once again. However, we have already suffered a fairly good pullback, and the holiday spirit around Thanksgiving historically tends to produce some pretty good trading action.
The key to profits right now is balance. The negatives are piling up and the technical condition of the market is deteriorating. We have to respect that fact and make sure we take some defensive action. We need to have some cash on hand in order to take advantage of further weakness and we need to make sure we don't let losses grow too great if the downtrend accelerates further.
While there is much danger lurking, there is also the potential for some big rallies. We saw a good example last Tuesday, when the DJIA gained 320 points. If your timing is right there were some nice gains to be had. We have subsequently given back a big proportion of that advance, but that helps set us up for another sudden and substantial spike.
What we have to watch for are signs that the negativity is growing too great, as that is the condition that tends to lead to quick rebounds. When nervous and uncertain market players throw in the towel out of frustration, fear or disgust, the snap back up can be surprisingly strong. Of course, it isn't easy to time such things, and more often than not the mood feels so bleak during the selling pressure that it is tough to even consider the idea of timing.
So, balance is the name of the game this week. On one hand, we need to make sure we recognize and appreciate that this market is acting very poorly and we need to be defensive. On the other hand, we also want to be opportunistic and be ready to make some money on the long side should the right conditions occur. How you approach this market depends much on your style and time frame. This is not a good environment for passivity. You have to be ready to move if you hope to profit from the volatility we are likely to see, and it is very important that you not let shorter-term trades turn into investments if they don't work as you hope.
We have some softness this morning as Goldman downgrades Citigroup (C) to sell, China restricts bank lending to cool speculation and overseas markets struggle. If you are looking to play some upside this week, it is probably better that we don't see a euphoric Monday morning open that tends to invite selling. There are a lot of traders out there looking for typical Thanksgiving strength and they are going to give it a try at some point and may make seasonality self-fulfilling.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to earnings/guidance: DHT +13.54%, CSUN +8.5%...Other news: NTOL +86.3% (agrees to be acquired for $4.40 per share), NX +38.8% (announces plan to separate its Building Products and Vehicular Products businesses), PHRM +38.0% (CELG to buy for $72 per share), ELNK +11.7% (considering strategic alternative for municipal wireless business), DISH +10.4% (Barron's reports T may be interested in buying DISH, also upgraded to Buy at Citi), BIDZ +6.8% (profiled in Investor Business Daily), CTB +5.7% (authorizes stock repurchase up to $100 mln), CRNT +3.3% (initiated coverage at Lehman), ONXX +2.9% (announces FDA approved sNDA for Nexavar tablets for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma), GME +2.3% (Cramer gives positive comments, initiated with neutral at tier-1 firm), RIG +1.7% (announces contract estimated revs at $569.4 mln), STJ +1.6% (Cramer gives positive comments)...Analyst upgrades: STP +2.7% (hearing tgt raised to $100 at tier-1 firm), YHOO +1.4% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm), QCOM +0.7% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: LOW -4.0%, VAL -4.0%, CYBX -3.4%, TDG -2.8%, FMCN -1.2%...Other news: SIFY -14.7% (SABA and SIFY announce they will work together to deliver learning platform and services to India), ACGY -5.6%, LOGI -4.2%, LMC -3.8%, FNM -3.7% (prices $500 mln of preferred stock at $25), AAUK -3.6%, BHP -3.5%, ABB -3.5%, LVS -3.2% (negative comments from Barron's), CELG -2.7% (CELG to buy for $72 per share), WYNN -2.6% (negative comments from Barron's), BZP -2.4% (files $266 mln common stock shelf offering)...Analyst downgrades: DFS -4.3% (hearing downgraded to Sell at Tier-1 firm), UBS -3.1% (downgraded to Sector Perform at CIBC), C -2.9% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier-1 firm), VMW -2.8% (in reaction to Barron's comments), FNM -2.5% (downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings), ETFC -1.7% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier-1 firm), MER -1.2% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier-1 firm).
Henno, Goldman langetas Citigroupi hinnasihi ka kõigest $33 tasemele, kus aktsia hetkel ka kaupleb.
Commercial property now under pressure
WSJ reports the value of commercial real estate, which nearly doubled in the past seven years, is now starting to decline due to the credit crunch, according to a report set to be released today by Moody's Investors Service. The report found that the value of commercial property declined 1.2% in September from the previous month. Particularly hard hit were apartments in the West and office property in most states other than California. The report is an early sign that the commercial-property sector is being dragged down by the growing reluctance of lenders to extend credit for anything related to real estate, which in turn could create a new drag on the economy and additional problems for investors. Declining commercial-property values could lead to an increase in default rates on commercial real-estate loans and on commercial mortgage-backed securities. No one is predicting that defaults in the commercial sector will come close to rivaling those in the housing sector.
LOW kaupleb hetkel üle 7% madalamal. Just niipalju on investoritel usku (housinguga seotud) jaemüügi tulevikku. Ootused jõulumüügi osas hakkavad kahtlemata alla tulema, mis võib tegelikult pakkuda ka võimalust üllatuseks.
SPY 12. oktoobri põhi on 143.7, mistõttu seal ilmselt päris palju stoppe üleval ning ka ostupool enne seda taset võiks olla paksem. Kui läbi ei vajuta, võidakse bidde päeva jooksul hakata tasapisi ülespoole nihutama. See-eest läbivajumise korral võime näha pullide kapituleerumist.
Turg üritab päeva põhjadest põrgata - laua pealt on viimasel ajal väga palju raha ära võetud, mis tähendab, et kui põrge peaks tulema, võib see ootamatult väga kiiresti võimenduda, kui raha hakkab mängu tagasi tulema. Hetkel on suhtumine veel väga ettevaatlik.
Kui olukord on paanika-hõnguline võivad turul taas üles kerkida jutud võimalikest intressimäära kärbetest - seda polegi nii väga raske ette kujutada, arvestades mitu korda varem on need turule päästerõnga ulatanud.
Tänase 10y treasury tootluse (4,08%) juures on stabiilne pikaajaline ettevõte P/E-ga 20-25 täitsa ok investeering. Sellepärast PEP, KO, MO on üle mõistuse tugevad.
tahtsin öelda pikaajalises perspektiivis stabiilne...
MCD ja JNJ ka :)
MCD kõrvale oleme vaadanud ka BKC'd, kelle vaba rahavoog peaks eelduste kohaselt moodustama turukapitalisatsioonist 2008. aastal ca 5.5%, 2009. aastal 5.7% ning 2010. aasal 6.4%. Pole sugugi halvad numbrid stabiilselt tegutseva ettevõtte kohta.
Järelturul tuleb Hewlett-Packard tulemustega, mis lööb ootusi.
HPQ Hewlett-Packard beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY08 EPS above consensus; announces $8 bln buyback (49.44 -1.31)
Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.86 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.82; revenues rose 15.0% year/year to $28.3 bln vs the $27.44 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.80, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.77 consensus; sees Q1 revs of $27.4-27.5 bln vs. $27.04 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $3.32-3.37, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.26 consensus. Co also announced an $8 bln buyback.
HPQ Hewlett-Packard beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY08 EPS above consensus; announces $8 bln buyback (49.44 -1.31)
Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.86 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.82; revenues rose 15.0% year/year to $28.3 bln vs the $27.44 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.80, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.77 consensus; sees Q1 revs of $27.4-27.5 bln vs. $27.04 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $3.32-3.37, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.26 consensus. Co also announced an $8 bln buyback.
Speedy,
Mismoodi puudutab drysi ja esea äri erinevad kontseptsioonid laevade turuhinda? See, et drys tegutseb spot-marketil ja rendib laevu lühiajaliselt kallimate tariifidega ja esea annab laevad rendile pikaajaliselt (väiksemate tariifidega) ei muuda seda, et mõlemad ostavad kasutatud laevu ja nende hinna määrab turg. Laevade hinnalipikute erinevused lihtsalt imelikult suured mõlema firma teadetes.
Mismoodi puudutab drysi ja esea äri erinevad kontseptsioonid laevade turuhinda? See, et drys tegutseb spot-marketil ja rendib laevu lühiajaliselt kallimate tariifidega ja esea annab laevad rendile pikaajaliselt (väiksemate tariifidega) ei muuda seda, et mõlemad ostavad kasutatud laevu ja nende hinna määrab turg. Laevade hinnalipikute erinevused lihtsalt imelikult suured mõlema firma teadetes.
sama suurusega laevade hinnad sõltuvad ka nende vanusest
drys laevad on suuremad kui esea omad ning ka uuemad
drys laevad on suuremad kui esea omad ning ka uuemad