The Bears Are in Control
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/19/2010 9:05 AM EDT
Be bold. Be confident. Be alive. A gallery of possibilities awaits for you when you make change your friend.
-- Bob Bone
It is always surprising how quickly the market can give back gains when it corrects. Over the last two weeks, we have given back the bulk of gains for the year. The way in which this has occurred has been textbook market behavior.
For over a year, we have quickly come back from every breakdown or pull back. As soon as it looked like a change of market character was upon us, we reversed up and made the bears and skeptics feel like fools. The V-shaped bounces had become so routine, that even the bears were afraid to bet against them. Even we broke down and had a classic failed bounce, there were still plenty of folks looking for the V-shaped recovery.
On Monday, the market had a pretty strong intraday recovery and managed a slightly positive open. Then, on Tuesday, morning we gapped up, and it looked like the bounce was going to occur once again. This time, though, the market action was different -- the dip buyers showed only mild interest, and as the day progressed and further strength did not occur, more market players decided to hit the exits. By the end of the day, the bears were firmly in control.
The catalyst for this weak action isn't any mystery. It is the problems stemming from the sovereign debt issues in Europe. In many ways, it resembles the issue with Bear Stearns and Lehman, which caused the crash in 2008-09. Although there are relatively small players like Greece at the heart of the crisis, there are so many interconnected financial relationships that the problems spread quickly.
We really don't have to spend too much time trying to understand exactly what the issues impacting the market are. In fact, it is sometimes better to just watch the price action and ignore the pundits who keep on telling us that the market is overacted.
There is one major thing you need to know at this point: The charts of the major indices look terrible and we are undergoing a correction. You can go ahead and try to guess when it might end and, of course, there will be some good bounces to play, but the bottom line is that the character of the market has shifted to negative and our No.1 priority should be to protect our capital. There will be time to remount long positions as the market finds support, but at the moment, the bears are in control and we shouldn't try to fight them.
We our off to a weak start this morning, which is another indication of a change in market character. Over the past year, we'd almost always be looking at a quick bounce after a day like yesterday. We are oversold and short-term traders will be looking for a counter-trend bounce, but the theme now is to sell strength rather than buy weakness.
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Briefing.com vahendusel:
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: IMOS +10.9%, GSOL +10.7% (very light volume; announces intended cash tender offer for up to $60 mln of its outstanding common shares at $9.00/share ), PLAB +9.0%, WSTL +5.0% (light volume), CFI +3.3%, HPQ +2.8%, DE +2.4%, ADI +2.4%.
Other news: NBS +10.8% (announced a joint initiative that includes their charitable organizations to expand research and raise awareness of adult stem cell therapies), MPET +9.9% (announces additional $15.6 mln investment by its strategic investor), MSPD +2.0% (still checking; chief executive officer was scheduled to serve as a featured panelist at the 2010 VC in the OC and OCTANe Innovation Showcase event yesterday).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GRRF -6.5% (light volume), CHS -5.4%, HRL -2.6%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: IBN -5.4%, BCS -3.0%, GNW -2.9%, RF -2.1%, AIB -2.0%, WFC -1.8%, BBVA -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), HBC -1.0% (trading ex dividend), JPM -1.0%, AIG -1.0%, BAC -1.0%, CS -0.9%, GS -0.4%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SWC -9.5%, RTP -4.8%, GOLD -4.2%, BBL -3.6%, AU -3.3%, SLV -3.0%, GDX -2.9%, MT -2.9%, BHP -2.9%, EGO -2.6%, HL -2.5%, VALE -2.5%, LIHR -2.2%, ABX -2.0%, AUY -1.5%, NEM -1.5%, GLD -1.3%, FCX -1.3%.
Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: PBR -2.0%, SLB -1.2%, STO -1.1%.
Select solar names ticking lower in early trade: FSLR -2.8%, SOLF -2.2%, STP -2.1%, JASO -2.0%.
Other news: ACGY -6.0% (still checking), GFC -4.8% (pulling back from yesterday's 4+ point surge higher; also says it is co policy to not comment on unusual mkt activity or rumors), Q -3.2% (trading ex dividend), FUQI -3.2% (provides financial filing status update; Co currently anticipates filing its 2009 annual report and restated quarterly reports in June 2010 ), VRSN -3.1% (pulling back in early trade; got boost yesterday from reports that the co's security business may be taken over), SI -3.1% (still checking), VOD -2.8% (still checking), HAUP -2.3% (continuing to pull back from last week's surge higher; co issued press release with Q3 results, but these results were disclosed in filing on May 14), .
Analyst comments: CRH -3.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), DHI -3.1% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman), TJX -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), FIS -0.9% (downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at SunTrust).
ECB declines to comment on potential curreny statement
Kas keegi teab mida BA näitab ??:(
BA....hmmm...äkki BanAan? Või siis BoamAdu..
Oleks tore teienekord vähe pikemalt lahti kirjuatada, mis kontekstist juttu?
Oleks tore teienekord vähe pikemalt lahti kirjuatada, mis kontekstist juttu?
Näitas viimast hinda 15.74 ja muutust -51, Portu näitas korraks isegi 12k lossi.Ma hakkasin juba silma tilkasid otsima.
Oleks vist aeg tunnistada, et kriis on jälle käes.
Kellel raha vaba, need saavad praegu ülisoodsalt osta.
Need, kes sees, need kõrbevad.
Kellel raha vaba, need saavad praegu ülisoodsalt osta.
Need, kes sees, need kõrbevad.
USA-s paanika müük, targad ostavad.
Neljapäeval oli põrge üles, siis oleks pidand kõik maha müüma. Nüüd ei tee enam midagi. Tuleb kannatada. Loodetavasti päris põhja ei lähe.
Jep oleks pidanud neljapäev ära müüma. Osta vist veel vara.
GIGM laseb uhkes üksinduses.
Maksutulude kogumiseks on USA taas tõsisemalt kaalumas netimängurluse legaliseerimist - link ka siia.
See on GIGM-le hea uudis
Uskumatu ,et GIGM peab sellele depressiivsele tampimisele vastu.
Turg hetkel üsna kriitilisete tasemete juures. S&P 200 EMA/SMA on 1102 punkti, kui siit toetust ei saada, siis tehniliselt läheb pilt väga koledaks.
Kusjuures DWA ka päris kõvasti vastu punnind. Ega see pilt praegugi eriti ilus ei ole.
Kung-Fu Panda?
Hilja juba. Eelmine nädal oleks pidanud :)
BA näitas minuarust haridust vist.
Nii, nüüd oleks veel vaja ka kuld destabiliseerida, siis oleks terve turg peata kanu ja sihitult hulpivat paanikas raha täis.
Nii, nüüd oleks veel vaja ka kuld destabiliseerida, siis oleks terve turg peata kanu ja sihitult hulpivat paanikas raha täis.
7. mail tsiteeris Joel Kukemelk tabavaid sõnasid:
... but the risk to the downside at this point is too great to ignore.
... but if you don't have a time frame of just a few hours, the better strategy is to stand aside and wait for better clarity.
Nüüd see juhtuski. Õiged sõnad olid. Aga nüüd on juba hilja müüa, aga ostuks kuldne aeg, kellel vaba raha.
... but the risk to the downside at this point is too great to ignore.
... but if you don't have a time frame of just a few hours, the better strategy is to stand aside and wait for better clarity.
Nüüd see juhtuski. Õiged sõnad olid. Aga nüüd on juba hilja müüa, aga ostuks kuldne aeg, kellel vaba raha.
Bloomberg TV is running a headline saying Sen. Dodd to drop plan for compromise amendment on derivatives
Turg pressimas ülespoole!
Turg pressimas ülespoole!