Kui üldiselt Jim Cramer mu lemmikute hulka ei kuulu, siis Tai situatsiooni osas on tema kommentaar üks parimaid. Mida ta ei maini, on likviidsus, kuid see oli peamiseks probleemiks just pool aastat tagasi toimunud kukkumise ajal. Kommentaar järgmine:
Don't like this Thailand situation. Not one bit. When governments get involved -- as with Thailand's new currency control that locks up 30% of foreign capital deposits, ostensibly to stem speculation in the baht -- you have to pull back in emerging markets. I have tried to justify, at various times, why I should stay in "good" emerging markets and just avoid "bad" emerging markets, and I have always failed.
When I look at the gains in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and India, I just say shoot first, take it off the table -- I don't even care if I give up 5% on the get-out.
These markets are pathetically interrelated by mindset and leverage. Whatever would attract people to investing in Thailand attracts them to all other emerging markets. Worse, these people tend to all panic at once. Maybe they don't panic today; that just means they'll panic tomorrow.
Think back to what happened in Latin America in May: nothing! That's right, nothing at all. But those stocks went down huge, many being cut in half, simply because our central bank raised rates too high. The worst that happens? You miss a big move up that is, alas, highly unlikely, given what just happened. Now everyone will scrutinize each government -- the new Thai government was pro-investing -- and conclude there is more risk than they thought.
Not worth weathering it. Never has been.
Kommentaarid Oracle (ORCL) kvartalitulemustele:
BofA affirms their buy on weakness for ORCL. Firm says strong 2Q rev, but disappointing applications license rev. While they're disappointed in this, firm believes the long-term thesis around the co's business model remains intact as mgmt noted the sales pipeline rose 35% in the quarter and they believe the F3Q (Feb) guidance bakes in a high degree of conservatism based on the current pipeline levels. ORCL noted that most of the deals in F2Q were pushed out, not lost, and firm believes that the app customer base remains very active based on their checks, which should bode well for F2H07. Firm trims their 3Q est (Feb) to $0.22 from $0.23 (St $0.22), but offset with increase in 4Q est (May) to $0.34 from $0.33 (St $0.34). Firm also trims Y08 est (May) to $1.07 from $1.08 (St $1.10
Susquehanna says there was nothing too exciting about ORCL's 2Q07 results. The applications business may have shown its true colors in 2Q07, growing organically 1% Y/Y. As the Siebel acquisition anniversaries early next year, they would not be surprised to see another meaningful acquisition by ORCL. Firm believes many investors are attuned to this. The noise over 100 bps of growth here and there on the database license rev line in 2Q07 was a bit overdone. Essentially, the top line was in-line with their ests, and looking forward, guidance for 3QFY07 was more or less in-line. Firm believes the recent (and likely much needed) pullback in ORCL shares represents a nice entry point for investors who want exposure to a defensive name in an otherwise volatile software market. With their forward ests relatively unchanged and the shares still attractively valued, they remain Positive on ORCL.
Thomas Weisel notes ORCL reported 2Q revs of $4.22 bln beating consensus top-line rev of $4.15 bln on strength in maintenance and services despite some weakness in new license sales. License rev was $1.207 bln vs. their est of $1.241 bln due to weakness in the North America region and the applications business. For 3Q, firm says mgmt guided to total rev of $4.31-4.38 bln, (22-24% y/y growth) license rev of $1.272-1.337 bln (16-22% y/y growth), EPS of $0.22 (15-19% y/y growth) and a 4-5% positive FX impact. This compares with previous consensus of $4.18 bln and $0.22 EPS and firm's previous license est of $1.234 mln. Although the midpoint of rev guidance is $160 mln above consensus, EPS guidance was only in line due to operating margins tracking slightly below street models. Note: Firm says ORCL mgmt also stated that the pipeline has grown significantly in the past quarter, and that guidance assumes a conversion rate at the lower end of the three-year trend... Friedman Billings notes last night ORCL reported a generally in-line quarter, with total rev upside, soft application rev, and in-line EPS. Firm believes the co has a strong pipeline entering the back half of its fiscal year, thanks in part to its additional investments in sales coverage, vertical application build out, and a slew of new products. This healthy pipeline should support steady growth in the database technology business, while helping the application business rebound. They also believe there is more leverage in the model and expect meaningful margin improvement over the coming quarters. Firm maintains their Outperform rating and $20 tgt, which represents 18x their CY07 EPS est of $1.09, and is a slight discount multiple to our annual 20% forecasted EPS growth for FY07 and FY08... Citigroup: ➤ ORCL Q2 was okay, not great. Total rev of $4.2bn modestly beat by $91M onhigher services. EPS of $0.22 was inline.➤ Weak point - contrary to expectations, database saw a miss of just $4m (growthof 9.5% vs our 10%). A clear 11% miss on apps ($340M vs $377M) raisesyellow flag. Deals spilled over into Q3 and were not competitive losses.➤ Encouraging outlook as ORCL meaningfully lifted Q3 total and license revguidance based on a 35% sequential Q2/Q3 improvement in the pipeline,double that of the 17% sequential pipeline build of last year. And ORCL ismodeling lower conversion rates than in the past.➤ We are raising our total Q3 rev est to 22% y/y growth, up from 15%. FY07 andFY08 EPS remains unchanged at $0.99 and $1.15, respectively. ➤ Maintain Buy. At 16.5x CY07 EPS, ORCL's stock is inexpensive vs to itssoftware peer group at 22x and trades below 2-yr avg EPS growth of 20x.
MS Morgan Stanley beats by $0.04, beats on revs; announces Discover spinoff, $6 bln stock buyback (80.37 ) Reports Q4 (Nov) earnings of $1.81 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.77; revenues rose 7.8% year/year to $8.63 bln vs the $8.27 bln consensus. Co also announces that the Board of Directors has approved the spin-off of Discover. CEO comments "Given the record results and significant momentum both in our securities business and our cards and payments business, we have concluded, after our most recent strategic review, that they can best execute their growth strategies as two stand-alone, well-capitalized companies with independent boards of directors focused on creating shareholder value." Co also announced that its Board of Directors has also authorized the repurchase of up to $6 bln of co's outstanding stock.
Circuit City (CC) teeb "Best Buy'd" (BBY):
CC Reports Q3 (Nov) loss of $0.09 per share, $0.14 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 6.9% year/year to $3.1 bln vs the $3.12 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY07, sees FY07 rev growth of 8-9% or roughly $12.52-12.64 bln ($12.81 bln consensus) down from prior guidance 9-11% growth or roughly $12.64-12.87 bln. Sees FY07 domestic segment comparable store sales growth of 6-7%, down from 7-9%. The fiscal 2007 outlook, as updated, is based on the following assumptions: a continuation of current competitive and macroeconomic environments, continued gross margin pressure in key product areas, continued sales growth in key product areas including flat panel televisions, video game hardware, notebook computers, digital imaging and portable digital audio players as well as related accessories and services, continued growth in Web-originated sales, no realization of benefits in fiscal 2007 from initiatives to accelerate sales growth, gross margin improvement or expense reductions, nor any potential costs or expenses associated with those initiatives, improved customer-encountered inventory in-stock levels
BofA initiates Monster Worldwide (MNST 46.21) with a Buy and $57 tgt, saying 20% growth will be driven by the ongoing secular shift online in Help Wanted, investments to harvest untapped revenue opportunities (leveraging its traffic and users for additional advertising revenue and the U.S. small/medium business market) and international opportunity in Europe and Asia Pacific
Stifel Nicolaus initiates KBR (KBR 23.87) with a Buy and $32 tgt, as they believe KBR is well positioned to provide refining solutions that accommodate heavier, high-sulfur crude oil slates, as well as to monetize stranded natural gas via LNG and GTL technology
Deutsche Bank upgrades Deutsche Telekom (DT 18.03) to Buy from Hold
CIBC downgrades Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM 30.78) to Sector Performer from Outperformer, saying they believe gros margins have yet to stabilize and are likely to compress further as management continues its quest for top-line growth.
Citigroup downgrades Anadarko (APC 44.03), Noble Energy (NBL 49.91), and Devon Energy (DVN 68.22) to Hold from Buy.
UBS upgrades Coldwater Creek (CWTR 25.21) to Buy from Neutral
UBS upgrades Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 68.26) to Buy from Neutral
C Citigroup downgraded to Hold from Buy at A.G Edwards- based on valuation
Ford Motor upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley- saying Ford has ample liquidity for turnaround
BIDU Baidu.com target raised to $128 at Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs raises their tgt on BIDU to $128 from $93 due to higher expectations for margins, despite slightly lower revenue