aga 2 nädalat on selgelt liiga lühike aeg, et tuliselt apelleerida turgude vahelise seose töötamisele
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1879276_1879093_1879088,00.html
Analüütikud on kõik AXLi & GMi diili positiivselt kommenteerimas. Nt. Credit Suisse tõstab soovituse outperform peale hinnasihiga $8:
This alleviates the near-term liquidity and bankruptcy risk for AXL while not hitting existing shareholders with a particularly onerous amount of dilution. The firm says while the shares have rallied sharply over the past several weeks, there still appears to be some residual near term bankruptcy risk priced into the shares.
...kuid CS'i katalüsaator pole eriti veenev:
They think the shares can move higher as investors become more comfortable with the view that AXL is not going to reorganize in bankruptcy. A catalyst for this could be the finalization of terms of the agreement between the AXL and GM, and an amended credit agreement from the company's lenders. (briefing)
JPMorgani aastalõpu hinnasihist on AXL igal juhul kõrgemal:
JP Morgan notes that AXL's bankruptcy risk is now substantially reduced, and their hitherto highly cautious view on the equity flips to a bias to buy on dips. Firm says after unexpectedly favorable liquidity relief from GM, a covenant amendment now seems highly likely. After the stock's 3 point move yesterday (to $5.70), they think AXL now seems fairly valued on 2011 earnings and about 8-20% undervalued on 2013 earnings estimates discounted back to 2011. Firm sets a $6 Dec 2009 tgt. (briefing)
Lisaks veel Miku kommentaarile niipalju, et lühikeseks müügi tehingu puhul on riskid piiramatud, ükskõik mis tasemel instrument peaks kauplema.
The Case for a Correction
By Ron Insana
8/19/2009 10:48 AM EDT
The selloff in China and other emerging markets is a leading indicator of risk aversion. China's 20% correction comes off a 100% rally, so in that regard it is necessary and healthy. However, as we were climbing, everyone argued that "as China goes, so goes the world." Now they are arguing that China doesn't matter. I disagree.
Sector ETF strength & weakness through the first hour of trading
Leading Sector ETFs:
Crude/WTI oil- USO +2%, OIL +2%, RBOB gas futures- UGA +1.5%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +1.5%, Energy- XLE +1.5%, IYE +1%, Gold miners- GDX +1%, US bonds- TLT +1%, SPDRS retailers- XRT +.5%, Gold- GLD +.5%
Lagging Sector ETFs:
Dry-bulk shippers- SEA -2.5%, Solar- TAN -2%, Base metals- DBB -2%, iShares real estate/REITS- IYR -1%, ICF -1%, Coal- KOL -.5%, Ag/chem- MOO -1%, Silver- SLV -1%, Steel- SLX -1%
Hiina langus on siiani olnud suurim üllatus spekulatiivsele rahale, mis on pikemat aega oodanud riigilt turge toetavaid meetmeid. Economic Observeri andmetel ei ole QFII’d veel raha hakanud Shanghai börsil välja tõmbama.
…average stock holdings at China's funds rose slightly to 87 percent of total portfolios by Monday from 86 percent at the end of the second quarter, indicating that Chinese funds have not trimmed their stock positions despite the market's recent slump.
Pikaajalised fondid on aga sisenenud Hiinasse eeldusega, et monetaarpoliitika ei muutu lähiajal. Laenukraanide nii järsk kinnikeeramine juulis võrreldes juuniga on paljudele üllatus & kui valitsus turge toetama ei tule, võivad ka pikaajalised investorid kasumeid hakata lukustama.
PS. Nt The Economist pakkus välja eelmisel nädalal ühe idee, kuidas Aasia põrget pikaajaliselt sälitada (loe siit). Üks point artiklist:
Asia cannot replace the American consumer: emerging Asia’s total consumption amounts to only two-fifths of America’s. But it is the growth in spending that really matters. In dollar terms, the increase in emerging Asia’s consumer-spending this year will more than offset the drop in spending in America and the euro area.
& USA turgud ei taha kohe mitte Hiinat järgida ning dip-buyerid pressivad SPY +0.7% üles.
Market Internals
The Dow is up 0.8% to 9287, the S&P 500 is up 0.7% to 997 and the NASDAQ is up 0.5% to 1966.
ETF sector strength: Crude Oil-USO +3.0%, Gasoline-UGA +2.3%, Energy-XLE +2.0%, Retail-XRT +1.9%, Commodities-GSG +1.8% and Regional Banks-KRE +1.8%.
ETF sector weakness: Real Estate-IYR -1.2%, Solar Energy-TAN -0.9% and U.S. Dollar-UUP -0.8%.
The morning's action has come on slightly below avg volume (NYSE 418 mln vs midday avg of 479 mln; NASDAQ 992 mln vs midday avg of 1.04 bln), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE advancers/decliners 1703/1196, NASDAQ advancers/decliners 1456/1074) and with new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE new highs/new lows 33/5, and NASDAQ new highs/new lows 15/9).
Sector ETF strength & weakness @ midday
Leading Sector ETFs:
Crude/WTI oil- USO +3%, OIL +3.5%, RBOB gas futures- UGA +2.5%, Energy- XLE +2%, IYE +2%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +2%, Biotech- XBI +2%, IBB +1.5%, SPDRS retailers- XRT +2%, Reg banks- KRE +1.5%, Gold miners- GDX +1.5%, Basic mat- XLB +1.5%, IYM +1%, Pharma HLDRS- PPH +1.5%, Clean energy- PBW +1%, SPDRS healthcare- XLV +1%, Commods- DBC +1%, Insurers- KIE +1%
Lagging Sector ETFs:
iShares real estate/REITS- IYR -1%, ICF -1%, US dollar index- UUP -1%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA -1%, Solar- TAN -.5%, KWT -.5%