Pikk nädalavahetus on ees ja vaataks, mida teeb maailma õlleturg. Economist'i koostatud õlletarbimise jooniselt on näha, et Hiina majanduskasv väljendub ka tarbitud õllekogustes. Paari aastakümnega on Hiinast saanud maailma suurimaid õlleturge. Õlle tarbimine kasvab Hiinas keskmiselt 10% aastas, lähtudes Credit Suisse'i andmetest. Globaalturgu domineerivad neli suuremat korporatsiooni: ABI, SABMiller, Carlsberg ja Heineken, kelle käes on umbes pool kogu maailma õlleturust.
Käimasoleval nädalal on palju räägitud USA võlakirjade mullist, mis kohe-kohe lõhkemas on. Korduvalt on meedias kajastust leidnud fakt, et Dow ettevõtete dividenditootlus on kõrgem, kui 10-aastase võlakirja tulususe määr. Väidetavalt ei ole sellist „anomaaliat“ tunnistatud juba paar kümnendit, kuid tegelikult on ikka küll.
Bespoke on taas teinud ühe graafiku, mis öeldut hästi demonstreerib. Allolevalt graafikult on selgelt näha, et Dow dividenditootlus miinus 10-aastase võlakirja tulususe määr oli 2008. aasta lõpus ja 2009. aasta alguses praegusest tasemest oluliselt kõrgemal. Ajalooliselt vaadatuna ei ole tegemist ka erilise „anomaaliaga“. Dow dividenditootlus ületas 10-aastase võlakirja tulususe määra vahemikus 1920 – 1950 ning alates 80ndate algusest on trend selgelt ülespoole liikunud.
Dow dividenditootlus - 10-aastase USA riikliku võlakirja tulususe määr
Tänane USA makrokalender on vägagi tihe.
Kell 15:30 avaldatakse 14. augustiga lõppenud nädalal esmakordselt töötuabirahale taotlejate arv, milleks konsensus prognoosib 475,000. Samaaegselt raporteeritakse ka 7. augustiga lõppenud nädala kestvate töötuabiraha taotlejate arv (konsensus 4.5 mln). Kell 17:00 avaldatakse juhtivate majandusindikaatorite indeks, mille kasvuks ootab konsensus 0.2%. Kell 17:30 avaldab EIA (Energy Information Administration) iganädalase maagaasi raporti. Õhtul kell 23:30 avaldab Fed oma bilansilehe ning samal ajal jõuab investoriteni ka rahapakkumise raport.
Hommikul on USA indeksfutuurid kergelt plussis - Dow +10p, S&P 500 +0.25p ja NASDAQ 100 +0.5p.
Taani õlletootja Carlsberg avaldas oma kvartalitulemused 17. augustil. Ettevõtte müügimahud kasvasid esimesel poolaastal 2%. Positiivse poole pealt suudeti Venemaa turuosalust kasvatada 39.1% pealt 40.1%le. Siiski, netotulud langesid 2% ehk DKK 28.9 miljardile möödunud aasta DKK 29.4 miljardi pealt. Netokasum kasvas möödunud aasta DKK 1,728 miljoni pealt 3,103 miljonile.
Positiivsete tulemuste peale tõstis ettevõte ka oma FY2010 prognoosi. Ärikasumiks prognoositakse DKK 10 miljardit varasema 9.4 miljardi asemel. Netokasumi y-o-y kasvuks prognoosib ettevõte varem raporteeritud 20% asemel hoopis 40%.
Carlsbergist kirjutas 25. juunil artikli Joel, mida saab lugeda siit, kui ettevõtte aktsia kauples ca DKK 478 peal. Täna küsitakse ühe aktsia eest aga juba DKK 524. Ettevõtte hinnasihte on viimastel kuudel ka tublisti ülespoole tõstetud – kõrgeima ootusega on väljas Jyske Bank, mis on Carlsbergi 12 kuu sihiks määranud koguni DKK 710. UBS katab ettevõtet DKK 550 sihiga, SEB DKK 600 sihiga, Barclays Capital DKK 600 sihiga ning Deutche Bank DKK 525 sihiga.
USA esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate numbrite peale on korralikult allapoole tulnud nii Euroopa indeksid kui ka USA eelturul sealsed indeksite futuurid.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.46%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.42%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,41%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.47%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.11%
Venemaa MICEX +0.21%
Poola WIG +0.02%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.32%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.24%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.82%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.09%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.51%
Tai Set 50 +1.27%
India Sensex 30 +1.08%
Tricky Trading
By RevShark
RealMoney.com Contributor
08/19/2010 7:30 AM
"Your last recourse against randomness is how you act -- if you can't control outcomes, you can control the elegance of our behavior. You will always have the last word."
-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb
While the major indices have held up well over the past couple days, trading is very random and extremely tricky. Volume has been at the lowest levels of the year, and we are seeing a lot of drifting and little conviction. We have had some strong action in fertilizer stocks and a few retailers perked up yesterday, but there are very few themes and no real leadership in this market either up or down.
Many market players have been focused on bonds, which are hitting extremely high levels as interest rates go ever lower. You have to wonder what the willingness to pay up for the safety of bonds means to the stock market, but on the other hand, there doesn't seem to be a major rotation out of equities taking place. If bonds start to come down, that may end up being a positive for stocks.
With the action so slow, our main task is to just stay very vigilant and watch for themes and trends to emerge. We have to control our behavior until we have a better sense of direction. I've been doing quite a bit of daytrading, as it allows me to stay flexible while I look for situations that will allow me to be more aggressive over a longer term.
If I had to pick a market direction right now, I'd have to lean toward the downside. We broke down through support levels last week and have had a very low-volume bounce over the past few days that has taken us right back to overhead resistance. While we have had a generally positive tone for the past couple days, there has been no energy, and market players aren't showing any great inclination to load up on new buys. It won't take much negative news to trigger some profit-taking after two days of gains.
I'd like to have a stronger level of conviction about the market, but what I see is minor upside momentum and little leadership while the technical picture is not particularly promising. It isn't bad enough to load up on shorts, but it isn't good enough to add new long exposure.
We'll see how the weekly unemployment claims look and then we have leading indicators and the Philly Fed at 10:00 a.m. EDT. This is a market looking for a catalyst and I'm not sure we're going to have a good one.
Briefing.com vahendusel:
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SMRT +8.1% (light volume), OTEX +6.8%, NM +5.6%, PETM +5.3%, WSM +4.0%, SHLD +4.0% (light volume), DLTR +3.0%, LTD +1.2%, YGE +1.2%. AMAT +0.7%.
M&A news: MFE +58% (to be acquired by INTC for $48 per share, a +60% premium to yesterday's close), ID +8.9% (co is in the final stages of the process and has received bids from several interested parties, both domestic and foreign).
Select web security stocks showing strength following INTC's buyout of MFE: SYMC +11.0%, FIRE +6.6%, CHKP +4.9%, WBSN +3.6%, VRSN +2.8%.
Other news: VGZ +25% (announces estimated mineral reserves of 2 mln oz and at its Mt. Todd Gold Project in Australia), BSDM +7.7% (continued momentum from yesterday's +162% move), MNKD +4.0% (announces pricing of $100 mln senior convertible notes, also announces entry into stock lending agreement).
Analyst comments: ANF +0.9% (upgraded to Accumulate at Standpoint).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GME -7.5%, BRCD -6.9%, CHNG -6.4%, BKE -4.3%, NTAP -3.1%.
Other news: AYR -6.3% (filed for a 3.9 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), WAL -5.6% (announces pricing of 7 mln share common stock offering at $6.25), ACHN -5.4% (announced that it has entered into definitive agreements for the purchase of $50.1 mln of co's common stock and warrants at $2.49 per share), SNDK -2.9% (filed for a $1 bln convertible sr notes offering).
Analyst comments: CRUS -3.4% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel), ARUN -3.2% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel), SD -1.5% (downgraded at tier-1 firm).