-Eilne päevalõpu müügilaine tõestas, et turu suund ülespoole ei ole kindel ning ka täna jätkub kogu nädal kestnud passimine. Nasdaqi futuurid on 3 punkti plussis, S&P 500 1,2 punkti plussis.
-Töötu abiraha taotluste arv kerkis eelmisel nädalal oodatust rohkem 12 000 taotluse võrra 345 000-ni. 10-aastase võlakirja intressimäär kukkus uudise peale 0,045 protsendipunkti ehk 4,75 protsendile. Samas on nelja nädala keskmine näitaja 333 500 abirahataotlust madalaim alates 2000. aasta novembrist.
-Tähelepanelikult jälgitakse ka nafta hinna liikumist, hetkel see 20 senti päeva tipust madalamal ehk 41,4 dollarit barreli eest.
Rev Shark:
This market has certainly been offering us the chance to strengthen our character and moral fiber. Yesterday a promising start with good news and increased volume turned into a major disappointment by the time the market closed.
The pundits blamed rising oil prices for the reversal, but it also looked like many sellers were considering technical levels as well. The 200-day moving average remains key overhead resistance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq and a very important support level for the S&P 500. Once intraday support levels cracked in the afternoon, the selling picked up very quickly. The bulls lost their conviction and refused to buy, once things started pulling back.
This market badly needs some positive days on increased volume. Until we see that occur, we have to remain extremely cautious. The action yesterday clearly demonstrated how shaky the mood is out there. The buyers wanted nothing to do with trying to buy weakness once the market rolled over. They ran for the hills once the intraday uptrend failed. However, it isn't all bad. As Mr. Buckham points out in the quote above: disappointment, problems and hindrances ultimately serve to strength us.
As the market frustrates investors and traders and induces them to sell their holdings, we set the stage for a turn with lasting power. It is only after we have shaken out the weakest and the uncertain that the market can find an equilibrium point and start to move steadily higher. The action yesterday was particularly disappointing, but it is that sort of disappointment that brings us close to an important turning point.
In the early going, the indices are showing few signs of life. Overseas markets were generally weak in sympathy with the reversal in the U.S. market yesterday afternoon. Oil is inching up again, gold is down and the dollar mixed. We have the weekly unemployment report at 8:30 a.m. EDT, leading indicators at 10:00 a.m. EDT and the Philly Fed at noon. Other than that, the news flow is fairly quiet.
After the reversal yesterday, expect buyers to be very tentative. The level of trust is low and it is going to take some pretty solid positive action to entice the bulls back into this pain-in-the-rear market.
Gary B. Smith:
