BIDU juba lendab.... huhuu
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/18/2007 8:14 AM EDT
There is no great achievement that is not the result of patient working and waiting.
-- J.G. Holland
The long awaited and much anticipated Federal Open Market Committee decision on interest rates will be issued this afternoon at 2:15 p.m. EDT. This has certainly been one of the most scrutinized and discussed meetings in the history of the Fed, but despite all the analysis, there is almost an equal split between those looking for a quarter-percentage-point cut and those who think a half-point cut is in the cards.
Those who are looking for a half-point cut say the Fed has to do that in order to not be behind the curve, while those who think a quarter-point cut is more likely say the Fed doesn't want to appear to be panicky and must also remain focused on the problem of inflation.
I believe we will see a quarter-percentage-point cut along with a policy statement that assures us of the continued vigilance of the Fed and the promise to move quickly should problems emerge or further economic slowing take place.
The big question for us is how the market is going to react. Some believe that if we don't see a half-point cut, we will sell off in disappointment. Some even think that a quarter-point cut is going to generate a "sell the news" reaction because it is so widely anticipated already.
Historically, the market has almost always had an initially favorable reaction to a rate cut. I'm not sure if any cut has been as anticipated as this and whether the market has bounced as strongly as this one has since the August lows, but there is no question that the market tends to react favorable to cuts.
What complicates matters this time is that the cut is coming with the indices not far from recent highs. The small-caps are certainly acting poorly and are down quite a bit, but the major indices have not undergone a major correction. The market has not been acting like it is anticipating a major economic slowdown. The Fed cut has been viewed as a positive that is addressing a problem that may just by mythical.
What we have to watch for going forward are signs that the economic problems that the Fed is addressing today really do exist. We are getting a cut because there are concerns about a slowdown and the spillover impact of the lousy housing market. The market has been pretty sanguine about these matters and seems to be optimistic that the Fed will cure all ills.
The Fed move today will change the focus of the market to some extent. Rather than worrying about what the Fed will do, we will focus much more on what the economy is actually doing. We know the Fed will be ready to do some more cutting, but the big issue will be whether they can keep the economic cycle from turning down too hard.
We have a flat start this morning as we wait for the news. It should be quiet until 2:15 and then we should see some major fireworks. My game plan is to do very little until the news is out.
None.
Core PPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.1% consensus
PPI y/y +2.2% vs +3.2% consensus, prior +4.0%
Core PPI y/y +2.2% vs +2.2% consensus, prior +2.3%
Lehmani tulemused mingit väga suurt üllatust ei pakkunud. Täpsemaid kommentaare turuolukorra kohta ootaks ikka konverentsikõnelt. Kuid ühtteist võib juba välja tuua. Peamiselt pakkusid nõrkust ja tugevust järgmised segmendid:
Fixed income capital markets oligi üpriski nõrk, seda ka oodati. Pilt ilus ei ole ning see kukkumine on ikka päris suur (selle kohta ootakski firmalt täpsemaid kommentaare - miskipärast ei usu, et suurt paranemist siin lähitulevikus loota on). Olukorra päästis aga Equities Capital Markets segment oma kasvuga - tegemist siis segmendiga, mis on vastutav aktsiate, optsioonide, derivatiivide, warrantite, futuuride jne turutegemise eest. Viskame korraks pilgu näiteks SPY 2-aastasele graafikule:
Võrreldes eelmise aasta sama perioodi, siis näeme, et käibed turul on tunduvalt suuremad. Paanikahoos on likvideeritud positsioone ning ka tagasi ostetud, seda peegeldab ka volatiilsuse kasv viimastel kuudel. Tegu ei ole millegi üllatavaga ning põhiline päästva segmendi kasv ilmselt nii suures järgus enam jätkusuutlik ei ole. Kõik see on võtnud ka marginaalidelt lõivu.
Maksueelsed marginaalid kolmandas kvartalis olid 28% vs 32.7% eelmisel aastal. Ootame konverentsikõnet. Lehman on tavaliselt kõvasti löönud oma tulemustega ning kuigi ootused olid madalad ning aktsia kaupleb eelturu plusspoolel, siis pakun, et lähiajal müüakse aktsia siiski alla.
Ei pane seda pilti siia mitte hirmutamise ega ühegi muu põhjuse pärast, vaid seetõttu, et ta mulle just nüüd kätte sattus. Pilt kirjeldab Dow aktsiate kukkumist 1987. aasta musta esmaspäeva jooksul ning on saadud Bespoke Investment Groupi leheküljelt.
Tõstan siia kõrvale uuesti Goldmani käibemudeli, mis näitab, kui suur osakaal on firmal Fixed income tradingust. Eelturul on aktsia ka suure osa oma tugevusest käest andnud..
PPI raportit vaadates, siis enamuse langusest moodustas finished goods osas energy goods, mis kukkus 6.6% augustis, olles eelneval kuul kerkinud 2.5%. Samuti langes Crude goods 3%. Kokkuvõttev pilt raportist näeb välja järgmine:
Selliste raportite analüüsimine eriti meelepärane tegevus ei ole tänu suurele "mürale," mida nad sisaldavad, kuid viskasin siia kõrvale USO graafiku, et saada natuke aimu energiahindadest augustis:
Nagu näha, langus tõesti toimus, kuid tänaseks on vähemalt naftahind kerkinud uutele tippudele ning tekitab küsimuse, kui tõsiseltvõetav praegune raport siiki on...
Aasia ootab USA intressiotsust, Euroopa tegi hüppe Lehmani tulemuste ja USA nõrkade tootjahinnaindeksi numbrite peale.
Saksamaa DAX +0.60%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.37%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.21%
Hispaania IBEX +1.70%
Venemaa RTS +0.56%
Poola WIG +0.52%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.02%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.09%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.07%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.11%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.19%
Tai Set -0.05%
India Sensex +1.06%
BBY kaupleb täna 4% kõrgemal ja konkurent CC 2%.