08:57 CNBC reports that Merrill Lynch upgrades Technology sector to Mkt Weight from Underweight
Been underweight since Jan 7… Trading call, large-cap tech more attractive.
Cody Willard:
GM Resolution Will Give Markets a Wild Ride
5/18/05 8:28 AM ET
There's been quite a change in character in the market in the last month, especially tech, which has rallied rather nicely (although both the DJIA and S&P 500 have acted well too). Yesterday's action was pretty classic bullish action, as a weak open and listless trading action quickly turned into a nice rally in the last hour and a half as the bulls found an excuse, even one as inconsequential as our government issuing a quasi-friendly statement about China's currency.
Despite the change in character, few traders have changed their stance. The quiet, low-volume rally that the Nazz has undergone has been pretty much been a function of sellers having run out of merchandise, as opposed to a bunch of new money flooding the market. Likewise, few bears have covered anything in this latest action. Rather, the bears can smell the blood of GM's debt problems and they are actively pushing GM's debt and its derivatives trying to crack those markets, and subsequently crack the stock markets and economy.
Fundamentals really are all that matter in the long run, but the investment world is driven in many ways by Soros' reflexivity theory. Just as the bears are leaning on GM's debt in an effort to crack this economy and market, Soros himself made a giant fortune by, in some sense, leaning on the Bank of London until it essentially cracked. In other words, the financial markets can have a big impact on those fundamentals that "are really all that matter," which means that the financial markets definitely matter. And if GM and the debt markets collapse, the bears are likely to make some good money betting against this market.
The flip side of course is that if GM's debt and derivatives, the corporate debt market and the stock markets right themselves, the bears will get squeezed -- and squeezed big-time, which would set up the exact inverse virtuous cycle resulting most likely in much improved fundamentals.
I've been citing this GM debt issue for several weeks, and it's still not resolved. But it's important, and the change in character in the stock market has the potential to get the virtuous cycle kicked in, just at the time the bears are aggressively leaning the other way.
This one's going down to the wire, and something's got to give. It's likely to be wild in one direction or another when it does.
The markets are looking flattish premarket. As I noted last night, today's "tells" are likely to be the action in AMAT and HPQ after both companies reported so-so quarters and guidance.
P.S. We've got a surprise guest or two joining us for tonight's Star Wars movie. And I'll have at least another ticket or two to give away to readers today, so stay tuned.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Gary B. Smith:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: HPQ +3%, PLAB +10.9%, PNRA +5.7%... Other News: PLMO +4.2% (introduces LifeDrive, its first mobile manager product), IVII +14% (selected by Microsoft for its DVD playback product for Xbox 360), DAL +11.3% (JP Morgan upgrade), ISON +6.9% (completes acquisition of security co), ESMC +5.4% (extends yesterday's 34% move), CYPB +5.1% (First Albany upgrade), BOOM +4.7%, WYNN +3.1% (Prudential is positive on Wynn Resorts following a meeting with mgmt), JBLU +2.4% (Raymond James uprgade)... Under $3: WQNI +26% (reports Q1), MCZ +9.3% (co to produce video game accessories upcoming Batman movie).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: AMAT -1.6% (also CIBC downgrade), REDE -11% (also JMP Sec downgrade), ANF -3.3% (also BofA downgrade)... Other News: XIDE -5.7% (extension of 38% drop yesterday).
EI lähe nagu käima.
meenutades Eino Baskini populaarset estraadinumbrit
long@35 call
Tahtmatult tekib selline tunne, et nii on homme ja ülehomme ja järgmine nädal jne.
nii illus, et lausa lust vaadata :
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=INTC,uu[m,a]daclyyay[db][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Aga see läheb üle ja siis on jälle nii kole, et süda läheb pahaks.
Ise ole eelmise harja pealt 25.00 sees.