Börsipäev 18.-19. november

Investeerimine
1

Rev Sharrk:

Logic and Reason -- Who Needs 'Em?

"The sign of an intelligent people is their ability to control emotions by the application of reason."

-- Marya Mannes

If we use the logic in the statement above there is a good argument for the proposition that the market is not a very intelligent entity. The market has little capacity to control its emotions and that is what makes it so difficult for even the most reasonable and logical individual to accurately predict market direction.

The shorter the time frame you are considering, the more the market is governed by emotional considerations rather than logic and reason.

The best traders stay focused on psychology and emotion in the short term and avoid the great temptation of imposing logic and reason on the market beast. However, in the longer run the market does eventually bow to the power of reason. The problem, as demonostrated by the bubble move of 1999-2000, is that emotions can dominate for a very long time and what seems reasonable can be ignored for many months.

The action yesterday was a particularly good illustration of how the market frustrates "reasonable" investors. On Tuesday it looked like the frantic rally that started in August and picked up speed in November might take a little breather. Some of the highfliers and market leaders pulled back on above-average volume and it looked like we were ready for a little rest. However, the Kmart (KMRT:Nasdaq) and Sears (S:NYSE) merger, along with an upbeat report from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE), caused a big opening gap and once again stirred up panic among the underinvested that they were going to miss out.

What is particularly interesting is that many of the folks who came in to Wednesday prepared for at least a minor correction weren't inclined to use reason and logic to comfort themselves as the market took off. They joined the charging herd and added fuel to the fire.

Eventually the frenzy slowed a bit in the afternoon but you can be sure that there are many traders who are looking for another outbreak of bullish exurberance What we need to keep in mind right now is that the driving emotion at the moment has a bullish bias. The nature of the market is that trends driven by emotions do not turn easily.

The great dilemma of this market right now is that so many bulls and bears are anxious for the market to rest that it makes it even harder for that to occur. I mentioned a couple weeks ago I was looking for a strong finish to the year but this move is jeopardizing that to some degree by going too far, too fast. We would definitely be in better shape technically if we pulled back soon. However, as I said above, logic and reason have little place in an emotional market.

The early action is slightly negative following poor guidance from Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq). Overseas markets were mixed to slightly weak. Gold is taking a rest as the dollar is stabilizing a bit. We have weekly unemployment claims, leading indicators and the Philly Fed report due out today.

It is good to be back and I'm anxious to get back in synch with the market. My thanks to Cody once again for an excellent job on very short notice.

Gary B. Smith:

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S&P 500 futuurid on 1,2 punkti plussis, samas on Nasdaqi futuurid 7 punkti miinuses. Töötu abiraha taotluste arv vastas ootustele ning nädalaga vähenes see 3000 võrra 334 000 taotlusele.

Google on oma teatises SEC-le märkinud, et edasine kasv ei pruugi olla enam nii kiire. Huvitaval kombel raporteeriti seda 15. novembril ning turule jõudis see alles täna, eelturul aktsia 2,5 punkti miinuses.

Negatiivne oli Applied Materials (AMAT) eilne teade, et neljanda kvartali prognoosid on oodatust nõrgemad ning põhjuseks tellimuste järsk kahanemine. Aktsia on eelturul 3,4% miinuses.

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Carnegie analüütikud taas üle pika aja üllitanud negatiivse analüüsi Raisio kohta. Nagu ikka olid nad negatiivselt meelestatud ja usuvad, et aktsia Underperformib turgu. Noh, downgradesid nad aktsiat 100% madalamal. Analüüs siin.
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Analüüs ise selline.
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Gapping Up

NFLX +16% (raises guidance, says sub growth is exceeding earlier expectations), INGP +14% (NY Times says co is for sale), ATGN +19% (reports SepQ), SFLK +18% (to become security subcontractor), EMIS +13% (signs licensing agreement with Roche), MSO +8% (momentum from Sears/Kmart), SOSA +5.9%, AIRT +5.7% (rebound after yesterday's plunge on auditor change), WSII +4.8% (announced late yesterday that exec VP bought 303,900 shares), INSP +4.4% (Piper says it would be aggressive buyers at current levels; Raymond James upgrade -- after downgrading on Tuesday), MO +1.9% (two upgrades: Goldman and Prudential), CHIR +1.9% (two upgrades: Piper and Smith Barney).... Under $3: CRDM +46% (announces 70% success rate in treating atrial fibrillation), TGAL +21% (receives order from European analog manufacturer), FLYI +7.3% (recent momentum).

Gapping Down

AMAT -3.6% (reports OctQ, light on revs, weak order guidance), MDT -5% (multiple downgrades after co reports OctQ), CLE -12% (misses by $0.02; guides below consensus), MGAM -11% (beats by $0.02; guides below consensus; Roth downgrade), NABI -10% (market disappointed by Altastaph Phase II trial results), PACT -7.2% (profit taking after 82% move yesterday), TTEK -4.6% (reports SepQ; guides below consensus), XMSR -3% (to offer $300 mln convertible notes), SIRI -3% (cut to Sell at BofA), WSM -2.6% (reports OctQ, guides lower), SOHU -2.2% (COO resigns), GOOG -2.2% (cautionary S-1 comments).... Under $3: POCC -19% (auditor says survival is in question), DYTK -8%.
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Netflix (NFLX) täna hommikul siis veidi plussis. Põhjuseks eile õhtul avaldatud pressiteade, kus tõesteti neljanda kvartali plaanitavat klientide prognoosi varasema 2.3-2.5 mln pealt 2.45-2.65 mln peale. Puhaskasum peaks veidi kukkuma, kuna uute klientide marketingikulu kantakse koheselt kulusse.

- Ühelt poolt väga hea uudis, mis peaks aitama kummutada kahtlusi seoses kasvava konkurentsiga. Firma suudab edukalt kliente võita olenemata BBI jm. katsetest. NFLX ongi subscriber story kuna on vaja saavutada kriitiline mass kasutajaid, et interneti kui müügikanali tegelik efektiivsus välja tuleks.

- Teiselt poolt on tegemist juhtkonna poolse katsega karudele veidi säru teha. Tõenäoliselt oli firma pressiteade vastuseks WR Hambrechti nädala alguses avaldatud karulüüsile. Lühiajaliselt kindlasti pos meie jaoks aga pikemas persp. näeksin siiski juhtkonda keskendumas põhitegevusele.


NFLX on LHV Pro soovitus selle nädala algusest
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Eile tulemused avaldanud Applied Materials (AMAT) kosub väga tublisti ning suurem osa eelturu miinusest on tagasi tehtud. Kui päeva lõpuks nüüd tõusu suuremas osas käest ei anta, loob see positiivse fooni edasiseks.

Some analysts are calling a bottom this morning in AMAT shares following in-line FQ4 and unexpectedly weak order guidance for FQ1. Smith Barney is saying their thesis continues to be that news flow will be very bad but will not last very long. Barring a collapse of DRAM orders -- a scenario the firm sees as highly unlikely based on checks this week in Asia -- Smith Barney believes this is likely the worst of the bad news. They maintain a Buy rating and $22 target. JP Morgan is saying poor order guidance may be the desired outcome by many investors looking to buy AMAT shares only after the company capitulates and flushes out the trough and this appears to have occurred. However, management did not offer a cogent explanation why its F1Q05 (Jan.) orders will be weaker than average guidance for C4Q04, and this is clearly a problem. Guidance is not in line with comments from firm's field contacts. They recommends buying here. First Albany downgrades the stock to Neutral from Buy and cuts their target to $16 from $20 following Q4 results, as they do not see any near-term appreciation potential for the stock. but they also say there is not a lot of downside risk. Firm thinks the stock is fairly valued at 3x book value, or $16.

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mida tähendab pakkumistereal AOXPS?
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Vicuron Pharma (MICU) @ $18. Vastus tõusule peitub üleeile hommikul avaldatud 8k filingus...

sB
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TZOO koliseb täna päris hästi
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Kui TZOO sugune junk enam ei lenda, on see ohtlik pullidele.
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AMAT juba pea 2% plussis, turg on ikka väga tugev
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Hype pole juba terve nädala lennanud.

sB
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GOOG on viimase viie päevaga päris kõvasti pihta saanud ning tundub, et trend jätkub.

B.
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Unreal SIRIUS mania ?Trend is your friend!
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Sellest SIRIUSEST ja Bank of America reitingutest on võimatu arua saada, eriti kahjulik on neid reitinguid järgida. Sain väikese õppetunni eile.
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Kolmapäevastele Applied'i tulemustele lisandusid eile pärast turgude sulgemist Marvell Technology (MRVL) omad. 30. oktoobril lõppenud kvartalis teenis firma $317,6 miljonilise käibe juures $43,6 miljonit kasumit (aktsia kohta 14 senti). Aastatagused näitajad olid vastavalt $215,3 ning $12 miljonit.

Teatud kulutused välja arvates teenis firma aktsia kohta 22 senti kasumit, mis ületas analüütikute ennustusi 1 sendi võrra. Kuigi käive jäi väga napilt ootustele alla, leidsid aktsiad järelturul tuge nii sisuliselt in-line prognoosidest (käibekasv 5-7% -> $333 kuni $340 miljonit) kui CEO Sehat Sutardja kindlatest kommentaaridest.

Lõppenud kolme kuu käive oli Marvell'i jaoks rekordiline ning tähistas 28-ndat järjestikuse käibekasvuga kvartalit. Call'ilt jäi veel kõlama, et firma on turuosa kasvatamas säilitusseadmete turul ning jätkatakse varude jälgimist ja tootmistasemete kohandamist. Aktsia kerkis järelturul ligi 6,7%.

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Wachovia tõstis SIRI reitingut. Aktsia eelturul 18% plussis.
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SIRI reitingumuutuse ja mitmete positiivsete kommentaaride taga on Viacomi endise juhi Mel Karmazini nimetamine CEO -ks.
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Rev Shark:

Traders Work Up Some Do-It-Yourself Momentum

"Order and simplification are the first steps towards the mastery of a subject."

-- Thomas Mann

The stock market often seems to be a highly complex, irrational beast that defies understanding. Huge amounts of money and time have been spent developing theories and models to explain and predict the movement of the market. Behavioral finance, chaos theory and even numerology and astrology are employed to predict where things are headed.

Despite all of those complex theories and formulas the market really boils down to nothing more complicated than supply and demand, which we learned about in Economics 101. The market goes up when the demand for stock exceeds the supply of stocks available at the current price and goes down when the reverse is at work.

With that simple concept in mind, it isn't hard to understand this market. We have a lot of folks who want shares and many shareholders who are reluctant to sell at prevailing prices. The folks who want to be in this market, but at lower prices, have grown increasingly frustrated as the market continues to go up in a straight line. Many of them obviously feel that it is more important that they buy shares than sit around and wait for lower prices.

Many of them are confident that even if they catch a short-term top they will be fine because the longer-term trend is up.

One other aspect at work right now that favors the bulls is that this is the time of the year when many investors have extra cash to put into the market. The level of demand for stocks has not only increased because of an emotional desire to participate in the merriment but because there is extra cash laying around not doing anything.

It is very important to understand that much of the demand for stocks is not particularly price sensitive. Many individuals simply see the market acting better recently and are convinced that means things will be better in the long run. They don't try to time their entries. They simply want to be in and get even more anxious to be involved when they see things going up day after day.

If you think about supply and demand in those simple terms it is quite easy to understand that this is a very strong market. Yes, it has gone up too far, too fast but volume, breadth and price action make it very clear that there is a substantial appetite for stocks and that is likely to persist. Pullbacks and weakness are going to make this market healthier as stocks are pounced on by the buyers who have been waiting for a pullback.

The market is extremely frustrating right now for investors seeking entry points. Despite generally poor news we are seeing almost no weakness. We don't have any economic reports today but Goldman's downgrade of semiconductor equipment will be of particular interest following the recovery of Applied Materials yesterday.

Oil and gold are trading up again as the dollar gives back yesterday's gains. Overseas markets were mixed with weakness in drug stocks.

We should continue to see the "hot money" play the momentum game. A lot of aggressive traders are looking for action and even if they don't find it, they make their own.

Gary B. Smith: