Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- 3Com (COMS) teatas eile õhtul tulemused, mis ületasid analüütikute ootusi. Käivet tuli viimases kvartalis üle $180 mln vs $160 mln analüütikute konsensust. Täna hommikul teatas Morgan Stanley, et tõstab COMS-i reitingu varasema Equal-Weight pealt Overweight peale. Hinnasihiks $11, mis jätab praegustelt tasemetelt päris tubli tõusuruumi.
- Wall Street Journal kirjutab täna hommikul biotehnoloogia IPOdest. Alates oktoobrist on turule tulnud 7 uut firmat ning vähemalt 13 on oma järgi ootamas. Siiski on investorite huvi IPOde vastu olnud üpris leige, mille tunnistuseks on fakt, et turule tulnud firmad kokku on avanemishinnast 16% allpool. Siiski märgitakse ära paar firmat, millede aktsiate vastu võib investoritel olla kõrgendatud huvi. Üheks selliseks on Eyetech, mis arendab ravimit silmahaiguse vastu, mille tulemusel jäävad inimesed reeglina pimedaks. Kui Eyetechi aktsiad IPOst lendu ei tõuse, tekitab see biotechi-pullide seas mitmeid küsimusi kogu sektori edasise suuna suhtes.
- Filmifirma Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) on sattunud jällegi Time Warneri (TWX) huviorbiiti. TWX proovis MGM-i ära osta juba paari aasta eest, kuid siis ei jätkunud firmal raha. Kas seekord läheb libedamalt?
- CIBC-i analüütikud tõstavad Extreme Networksi (EXTR) reitingu tän ahommikul Sector Perform peale varasema Sector Underperform pealt. Põhjuseks jällegi madalam valuatsioon võrreldes konkurentidega (vt. eilset börsipäeva). Mäletatavasti kukkusid EXTR-i aktsiad nädala alguses ligemale neljandiku peale seda kui firma andis jooksvaks kvartaliks kasumi-ja käibehoiatuse. Kas tõesti analüütikud pakuvad karudele võimaluse neid aktsiad veel korra lühikeseks müüa?
- UBS-i analüütikud tõstavad täna hommikul maailma suurima jaemüüja Wal-Marti (WMT) reitingu Osta peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Viimase aja kehvad müügitulemused peaksid investoritele pakkuma soodsa võimaluse aktsiate ostmiseks.
- JP Morgan tõstab apteegiketi Duane Reade (DRD) aktsiate reitingu Overweight peale varasema Neutraalse asemel. Ka lisatakse DRD aktsiad firma Fookusnimekirja $17.50 hinnasihiga. Ühed, kes tugevnevast konkurentsist ravimifirmade vahel võidavad on neid ravimeid müüvad firmad.
- Goldman Sachs tõstab Corningu (GLW) reitingu Outperform peale varasema In-Line asemel. Firma arvates on viimase aja langus hea võimalus ostmiseks. 3-6 kuu hinnasihiks $9-12 nign 12-18 sihiks $11-14.
- Therma-Wave (TWAV), mis ilutseb ka LHV enimkaubeldus aktsiate nimekirjas on täna hommikul ligemale 10% plussis, kuna sai Tokyo-Electronlt suurtellimuse.
- Initial Claims 353k vs 365k consensus
Turu reaktsioon veidi positiivne. Dollar naudib plussi euro vastu.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:
The past ten days have presented some of the most unusual market action we've seen all year. The capture of Saddam turned into a nonevent, the Dow has worked steadily higher as cyclicals, industrials and energy stocks have attracted the momentum buyers, the Nasdaq has struggled as chips and retailers sold off, and there have been some massive pullbacks in stocks that have been this year's best performers.
Is this market undergoing some sort of major transition or rotation? Is leadership shifting from Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) to Deere (DE:NYSE) and 3M (MMM:NYSE)? Maybe in the short term, but we would be foolish to dump the feisty friends that brought us to this end-of-the-year party. Right now some of the older, more conservative stocks are looking very fetching, but it's more a function of being very late in the year, being tired out by the more energetic youthful techs and the inclination to finish out the year in the arms of a safer, more secure and more experienced companion.
The techs, momentum stocks, small-caps and highfliers will be back. End-of-the-year profit-taking and portfolio adjustments have pressured them, but they're setting up for a bounce as the holidays descend upon us and volume slows.
Now is the time to prepare for the market's year-end dance. Work now on identifying the stocks you want to share that midnight kiss with. Yes, they can be very irritating and uncooperative at times, but the momentum and small-cap favorites will be full of life during the holidays.
Now is the time to prepare. We saw some slowing in the selling of the highfliers yesterday, so there are some preliminary signs that they are building a base from which to finish the year. Remember, the key isn't to buy the bottom tick, but to buy when stocks offer the best chance of going up with the least amount of risk. The setups don't form in a day. It takes some time before the best patterns are ready.
Alan Farley wrote last night "I can't get over the feeling that in a few months the same tech and momentum stocks being dumped like hot potatoes right now will be leading the market again." I think he's right, but I think it's going to happen much sooner than a few months from now. Good preparation now will pay off big when we rotate back, so be ready.
We have a slightly positive open shaping up as European stocks recover from early weakness. The dollar continues to struggle against the euro, but this has been happening for so long now the market seems to be building up some tolerance for it.
We have some important economic reports due out this morning. The weekly unemployment claims, leading indicators and the Philly Fed Index should help establish the market tone.
Option expiry will help create some volatility in the bigger-caps and energy stocks should continue to garner attention, but watch for positioning in anticipation of a January effect/Santa Claus Rally.
It's going to stay tricky but preparation is of the utmost importance right now.
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