just nii WN, nüüd vaja uued targetid juba vahele panna
aga need 3 õlle oled auga välja teeninud, Charliele ka 1
Kuigi tuletan meelde, et näiteks 20. novembril kukuti allapoole 800 punkti joont ning mindi kinni ka päeva põhjades 750 punkti peal. Ralli järgnes alles järgmisel päeval.
poisid poisid, mis te unistate
mis võiks olla katalüsaatoriks? ega mitte see 6 kuu pärast saabuv põhi ning aktsiad põrkavad ju enne
rauad on ju tühjad ning tulevik täiesti määramatu, ebakindlus paneb kõiki müüma
järgmised 2 nädalat ainult alla, põhi on veel kaugel ;)
mis võiks olla katalüsaatoriks? ega mitte see 6 kuu pärast saabuv põhi ning aktsiad põrkavad ju enne
rauad on ju tühjad ning tulevik täiesti määramatu, ebakindlus paneb kõiki müüma
järgmised 2 nädalat ainult alla, põhi on veel kaugel ;)
arvan ka, et enne tõusu peavad kas tõsised majanduse tervindamise tunnused tulla!!! mitte mingi raha pumpamine ei aita vaid vastupidi paneb nii riigi kui ka firmade kaela lisakulud ja lihtsalt pikendab kriisi
Kui majanduslangus sunnib inimesi nuputama odavamate tarbimis- (WMT vs high-end poed), söömis- (MCD, BKC vs kallid restoranid) ja meelelahutus (kinod vs reisimine) variantide üle, siis seni on 2009. aasta esimesed 7 kino nädalavahetust näidanud tulude tõusu möödunud aasta üle ca 15%. Möödunud kolmepäevase Presidendi püha kinopiletite tulud olid 35% suuremad kui 2008. aastal.
põhimõtteliselt on renessansil õigus, enne aktsiaturgude tõusu peavad tõsised majanduse tervenemise tunnused tulema
paraku, langusesse armunud kodanikud ei suuda neid tervenemise tunnuseid märgata, sest nad sõeluvad infovoost välja vaid nende vaadet toetava informatsiooni
selline käitumine on stiilipuhas õpikunäide finantspsühholoogia (financial behaviour) vallast - "in psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions"
isegi tänases raskes olukorras ei saa eitada positiivsete infokillukeste puudumist
paraku, langusesse armunud kodanikud ei suuda neid tervenemise tunnuseid märgata, sest nad sõeluvad infovoost välja vaid nende vaadet toetava informatsiooni
selline käitumine on stiilipuhas õpikunäide finantspsühholoogia (financial behaviour) vallast - "in psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions"
isegi tänases raskes olukorras ei saa eitada positiivsete infokillukeste puudumist
"confirmation bias" viib lõpuks selliste järeldusteni
Eesti võitis jalgpallis Hollandit 2:0 (tegelik seis oli Eesti - Holland 2:4, kuid andunud Eesti koondise fännina ei pannud ma Hollandi väravaid tähele)
:)
Eesti võitis jalgpallis Hollandit 2:0 (tegelik seis oli Eesti - Holland 2:4, kuid andunud Eesti koondise fännina ei pannud ma Hollandi väravaid tähele)
:)
arvan et hamburgeri ja kino vaatamise statistika võib vastupi käsitleda - inimesed kes varem kallist sampust joonud nüüd käivad kino vaatamas, arvestades seda et pangandussektoris kindlasti tulevad veelgi üllatused (arvan et pankrotilaine veel tulemas) raske teised uudised tõsiseks võtta!
Henno, palun tunne end vabalt postitades siia neid positiivseid infokilde
Kolmekordne eitus lihtlauses... ...võttis päris võhmale.
Bank regulators will go into financial institutions this week; details on public/private partnership will come within weeks - CNBC
speedy, kasvõi ... The ZEW economic think tank said on Tuesday its monthly poll of economic sentiment jumped to -5.8 from -31.0 in January, marking the largest increase in expectations since July 1993 and shooting past the -28.0 expected by analysts polled last week.
Negatiivset liikumist Euroopa turgudel dirigeerib täna finantssektor, kuna Moody's võib hakata langetama Kesk- ja Ida-Euroopa exposure'ga pankade krediidreitinguid. Austria, Itaalia, Belgia, Saksamaa, Prantsusmaa ja Rootsi finantssektori Euroopa arenevatele turgudele väljastatud laenud võivad Bloombergi hinnangul küündida 1.3 triljoni euroni. Zero Hedge vahendusel toodud graafikust näeb , et kõige suurema riski alla on sattunud Austria pangasüsteem
Teil siin muudkui Ameerika ja Ameerika. Kesk- ja Ida-Euroopas toimub täna oioioi....
Spekulatsioon.
Miks väike raputus allpool 800 ja täiga üles pealpool?
Lühikesi rohkem, kui pikki. Pikkade stoppe vähem, kui lühikeste.
Miks väike raputus allpool 800 ja täiga üles pealpool?
Lühikesi rohkem, kui pikki. Pikkade stoppe vähem, kui lühikeste.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -34.65 vs -23.75 consensus, prior -22.20
Täna külvatakse päris korralikku paanikat. S&P500 -3.2% 793 punkti peal...ja päev pole veel alanudki.
Eastern European currencies crumble as fears of debt crisis grow - Daily Telegraph. The Daily Telegraph reports that Hungary's forint fell to an all-time low on Monday, and Poland's zloty slumped to the lowest in five years, on plunging industrial output. Half of all loans to the private sector in Poland are in foreign currencies so borrowers face a severe debt shock after the 40% fall of the zloty against the euro since August. The mushrooming crisis has already started to spill over into Germany's debt markets, lifting credit default swaps on German five-year bonds to a record 70 basis points. A report by Moody's released on Tuesday said the region's banks were coming under severe stress as the property bust combines with a rising debt burden. "Local currency depreciation is a major risk to East Europe banks," it said. There are contagion worries for Western banks that have lent $1.74 trillion to the ex-Soviet bloc -- split between $1 trillion in foreign loans and $700bn in local currency debt through subsidiaries. The region needs to roll over $400 bln in foreign debts this year, equivalent to a third of total GDP, raising concerns that it may need a massive rescue programme from the International Monetary Fund and the European institutions.
Eastern European currencies crumble as fears of debt crisis grow - Daily Telegraph. The Daily Telegraph reports that Hungary's forint fell to an all-time low on Monday, and Poland's zloty slumped to the lowest in five years, on plunging industrial output. Half of all loans to the private sector in Poland are in foreign currencies so borrowers face a severe debt shock after the 40% fall of the zloty against the euro since August. The mushrooming crisis has already started to spill over into Germany's debt markets, lifting credit default swaps on German five-year bonds to a record 70 basis points. A report by Moody's released on Tuesday said the region's banks were coming under severe stress as the property bust combines with a rising debt burden. "Local currency depreciation is a major risk to East Europe banks," it said. There are contagion worries for Western banks that have lent $1.74 trillion to the ex-Soviet bloc -- split between $1 trillion in foreign loans and $700bn in local currency debt through subsidiaries. The region needs to roll over $400 bln in foreign debts this year, equivalent to a third of total GDP, raising concerns that it may need a massive rescue programme from the International Monetary Fund and the European institutions.
Seda Telegraphi teemat sai juba eile stefaniga mainitud. KIE CDSid igatahes laes, Lars Christiansen on staar ja kõik, mis maailmas halvasti olla saab, on halvasti.
__________________________________________________________________________
Aga ZEW? Baltic Dry? Hiina kohalik aktsiaturg?
Nuuks!
__________________________________________________________________________
Aga ZEW? Baltic Dry? Hiina kohalik aktsiaturg?
Nuuks!
USA alustab päeva sügavas miinuses. S&P500 -3% @ 795 punkti, Nasdaq100 -2.7% at 1196 punkti ning nafta -5.5% @ $35.4.
Saksamaa DAX -2.64%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.40%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.12%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.27%
Venemaa MICEX -6.40%
Poola WIG -4.05%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.35%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.79%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.92%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.94%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -4.89%
Tai Set 50 -2.29%
India Sensex 30 -2.91%
We're Still Stuck on the Slope of Hope
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/17/2009 8:07 AM EST
Happiness can exist only in acceptance.
-- Denis de Rougamont
A significant market low often occurs not when the flow of news turns positive but when stocks stop going down on bad news. It happens when market players have accepted the situation and are no longer surprised or disappointed by more negative headlines.
Unfortunately, the pattern of recent news and events has created an environment in which market players are focused primarily on how much worse things can become. Expectations for a stimulus plan and a bank bailout, as well as for the Obama administration itself, were building steadily for a while, but now the dominant emotion appears to be that the economy might be worse than we thought and these governmental programs less effective than hoped.
Trying to assign blame for what is going on is giving the media plenty to write about, but the key is for investors to engage investor sentiment. We don't have much confidence at all that the worst is priced in. Bad news is still having an impact and causing people to sell.
What is really amazing about the news is how unrelentingly negative it has been. I've never seen a market environment with so few positives. Typically when a negative cycle begins, we eventually progress to a point where market players become numb to the negatives, and we eventually start to ignore them. They come to accept the problems and no longer react to negative news.
That has not been the case in this market. Investors are still tremendously uncertain about how much worse things might become. The real driver for the market instability is the increased belief that government may not have the answer. That is a truly frightening thing for many to contemplate, and it helps to explain why we have such euphoric spikes higher each time some new program or detail is announced.
The market action lately has been the classic "slope of hope" pattern. We see a spike higher on hopes that some sort of government plan will work. That squeezes the bears for a little bit and brings in some money from the sidelines, but as the actual news is contemplated, optimism dims and we slide back down.
This morning we have another poor open under way on a plethora of worldwide economic issues. There isn't any one thing in particular that is pressuring the market; rather, there's just a feeling that maybe we haven't fully priced in all the negatives.
Until the market can start shrugging off some of the poor news, there isn't any reason to do any buying. It is only after we have accepted the worst and priced it in that we can start looking thinking about some upside.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RNT +5.2% (light volume), CAG +4.8% (light volume), MDT +3.2% WMT +1.4%, RAIL +1.3%... M&A news: RTLX +17.2% (light volume, received proposal to purchase all the outstanding shares in a merger transaction for a price of $8.00 per share in cash)... Select stem cell related names trading higher: ASTM +7.8%, STEM +6.1%, GERN +1.6%... Select gold related names showing strength with higher spot prices: NG +5.8%, GFI +5.0%, NEM +3.4%, SLW +2.8%, AUY +2.8%, AEM +2.7%, ABX +2.6%, AU +2.6%, KGC +2.3%, GLD +2.1%, GG +1.7%... Other news: NVAX +11.6% (presents "favorable results" from Phase I/IIa pandemic influenza vaccine program), WYN +10.0% (announces it is withdrawing its intention to enter into an at-the-market equity sales program and will not enter into a distribution agreement or file a related prospectus supplement), DO +4.1% (DO to replace WFT in the S&P 500), BSX +3.9% and AXYS +2.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BRCM +1.1% (Nokia has selected Broadcom as a next generation 3G baseband, radio frequency and mixed signal chipset system supplier for worldwide markets).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AEE -16.1%, AEG -12.2%, CWTR -8.5% (light volume), DAI -6.8% (also downgraded to Sell at UBS), STO -5.0%, CSIQ -3.8%, RIG -2.3%, TEVA -1.5%... Select financial related names trading lower: LYG -20.0% (Moody's downgrades Lloyds TSB and Bank of Scotland; also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), AIB -18.8%, MTG -17.7% (Moody's cuts ratings on MGIC Investment), BCS -15.6%, IRE -15.1%, DB -12.9%, ING -11.6%, STD -9.7%, RF -9.5%, IBN -9.2%, RDN -8.3% (Moody's cuts ratings on Radian Group), BAC -8.3%, PUK -7.8%, CS -7.6%, ABB -6.6%, AXA -6.5%, WFC -6.2%, UBS -6.2% (sees 35% drop in hedge fund assets - Reuters.com), JPM -5.9%, GNW -5.6% (Moody's downgrades Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation to Baa2; outlook is developing), HBC -5.5%, C -5.2% (Potential buyers seek only Citi's good parts - NY Post), MS -5.0%, GS -3.9%, MA -3.2%, V -2.9%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with weakness in crude: TOT -5.4%, RDS.A -4.9%, BP -4.2%, CVX -3.4%, SLB -3.1%, COP -3.0%, XOM -2.5%, E -2.1%... Select drybulk shippers showing weakness: GNK -8.2%, DRYS -8.2%, DSX -7.2%, EXM -6.3% (announces suspension of dividend; provides charter status update), TBSI -5.1%, FRO -4.9%, PRGN -3.2%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: BHP -8.7%, MT -8.4%, RTP -5.6% (Rio Tinto says flooding impacting iron ore operations - DJ), RIO -5.3%, BBL -5.1%... Select ag related names seeing early weakness: MOS -4.4%, SYT -3.9%, POT -3.8%, AGU -3.1%, MON -2.8%... Other news: MGM -10.1% and LVS -4.5% (still checking for anything specific), GM -6.4% (GM to get $4 bln aid tranche Tuesday - Reuters), NOK -5.9% (still checking), STP -4.9% (acquires minority stake in asia silicon for $8.1 million), CTBK -4.8% (suspends cash dividend), WFT -1.9% (DO to replace WFT in the S&P 500)... Analyst comments: GIL -9.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), CRXL -7.5% (downgraded to Hold at RBS), EGLE -6.9% (downgraded to Hold at Lazard Capital), DE -6.5% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), CHL -5.0% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), JAKK -4.7% (downgraded to Hold at Needham), EQR -4.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), GOOG -3.0% (downgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkEquity), DWA -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), DEO -2.2% (downgraded to Sell at UBS).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/17/2009 8:07 AM EST
Happiness can exist only in acceptance.
-- Denis de Rougamont
A significant market low often occurs not when the flow of news turns positive but when stocks stop going down on bad news. It happens when market players have accepted the situation and are no longer surprised or disappointed by more negative headlines.
Unfortunately, the pattern of recent news and events has created an environment in which market players are focused primarily on how much worse things can become. Expectations for a stimulus plan and a bank bailout, as well as for the Obama administration itself, were building steadily for a while, but now the dominant emotion appears to be that the economy might be worse than we thought and these governmental programs less effective than hoped.
Trying to assign blame for what is going on is giving the media plenty to write about, but the key is for investors to engage investor sentiment. We don't have much confidence at all that the worst is priced in. Bad news is still having an impact and causing people to sell.
What is really amazing about the news is how unrelentingly negative it has been. I've never seen a market environment with so few positives. Typically when a negative cycle begins, we eventually progress to a point where market players become numb to the negatives, and we eventually start to ignore them. They come to accept the problems and no longer react to negative news.
That has not been the case in this market. Investors are still tremendously uncertain about how much worse things might become. The real driver for the market instability is the increased belief that government may not have the answer. That is a truly frightening thing for many to contemplate, and it helps to explain why we have such euphoric spikes higher each time some new program or detail is announced.
The market action lately has been the classic "slope of hope" pattern. We see a spike higher on hopes that some sort of government plan will work. That squeezes the bears for a little bit and brings in some money from the sidelines, but as the actual news is contemplated, optimism dims and we slide back down.
This morning we have another poor open under way on a plethora of worldwide economic issues. There isn't any one thing in particular that is pressuring the market; rather, there's just a feeling that maybe we haven't fully priced in all the negatives.
Until the market can start shrugging off some of the poor news, there isn't any reason to do any buying. It is only after we have accepted the worst and priced it in that we can start looking thinking about some upside.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RNT +5.2% (light volume), CAG +4.8% (light volume), MDT +3.2% WMT +1.4%, RAIL +1.3%... M&A news: RTLX +17.2% (light volume, received proposal to purchase all the outstanding shares in a merger transaction for a price of $8.00 per share in cash)... Select stem cell related names trading higher: ASTM +7.8%, STEM +6.1%, GERN +1.6%... Select gold related names showing strength with higher spot prices: NG +5.8%, GFI +5.0%, NEM +3.4%, SLW +2.8%, AUY +2.8%, AEM +2.7%, ABX +2.6%, AU +2.6%, KGC +2.3%, GLD +2.1%, GG +1.7%... Other news: NVAX +11.6% (presents "favorable results" from Phase I/IIa pandemic influenza vaccine program), WYN +10.0% (announces it is withdrawing its intention to enter into an at-the-market equity sales program and will not enter into a distribution agreement or file a related prospectus supplement), DO +4.1% (DO to replace WFT in the S&P 500), BSX +3.9% and AXYS +2.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BRCM +1.1% (Nokia has selected Broadcom as a next generation 3G baseband, radio frequency and mixed signal chipset system supplier for worldwide markets).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AEE -16.1%, AEG -12.2%, CWTR -8.5% (light volume), DAI -6.8% (also downgraded to Sell at UBS), STO -5.0%, CSIQ -3.8%, RIG -2.3%, TEVA -1.5%... Select financial related names trading lower: LYG -20.0% (Moody's downgrades Lloyds TSB and Bank of Scotland; also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), AIB -18.8%, MTG -17.7% (Moody's cuts ratings on MGIC Investment), BCS -15.6%, IRE -15.1%, DB -12.9%, ING -11.6%, STD -9.7%, RF -9.5%, IBN -9.2%, RDN -8.3% (Moody's cuts ratings on Radian Group), BAC -8.3%, PUK -7.8%, CS -7.6%, ABB -6.6%, AXA -6.5%, WFC -6.2%, UBS -6.2% (sees 35% drop in hedge fund assets - Reuters.com), JPM -5.9%, GNW -5.6% (Moody's downgrades Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation to Baa2; outlook is developing), HBC -5.5%, C -5.2% (Potential buyers seek only Citi's good parts - NY Post), MS -5.0%, GS -3.9%, MA -3.2%, V -2.9%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with weakness in crude: TOT -5.4%, RDS.A -4.9%, BP -4.2%, CVX -3.4%, SLB -3.1%, COP -3.0%, XOM -2.5%, E -2.1%... Select drybulk shippers showing weakness: GNK -8.2%, DRYS -8.2%, DSX -7.2%, EXM -6.3% (announces suspension of dividend; provides charter status update), TBSI -5.1%, FRO -4.9%, PRGN -3.2%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: BHP -8.7%, MT -8.4%, RTP -5.6% (Rio Tinto says flooding impacting iron ore operations - DJ), RIO -5.3%, BBL -5.1%... Select ag related names seeing early weakness: MOS -4.4%, SYT -3.9%, POT -3.8%, AGU -3.1%, MON -2.8%... Other news: MGM -10.1% and LVS -4.5% (still checking for anything specific), GM -6.4% (GM to get $4 bln aid tranche Tuesday - Reuters), NOK -5.9% (still checking), STP -4.9% (acquires minority stake in asia silicon for $8.1 million), CTBK -4.8% (suspends cash dividend), WFT -1.9% (DO to replace WFT in the S&P 500)... Analyst comments: GIL -9.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), CRXL -7.5% (downgraded to Hold at RBS), EGLE -6.9% (downgraded to Hold at Lazard Capital), DE -6.5% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), CHL -5.0% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), JAKK -4.7% (downgraded to Hold at Needham), EQR -4.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), GOOG -3.0% (downgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkEquity), DWA -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), DEO -2.2% (downgraded to Sell at UBS).