Börsipäev 17. november

Investeerimine
1

Eilne langus on täna hommikul jätkunud Aasia turgudel ning taaskord jäi keskpunkti Hiina, kus kohalikud indeksid on alates reedest kaotanud ca 10% oma turuväärtusest. . Eilse Bloombergi artikli kohaselt võib Hiina keskpank kasvava inflatsioonisurve tõttu intressimäärade kergitamisega jätkata juba käesoleval reede. Alloleval graafikul on toodud Shanghai Composite indeks

Euroopa maadleb edasi aga enda probleemidega. Eile toimunud Eurogrupi kohtumisel Iirimaa osas konkreetse abipaketini ei jõutud, kuid tööd alustati võimaliku abi pakkumiseks riigi suurematele pankadele. Täiendavat hirmu külvas Kreeka, kelle osas avaldas Austria rahandusminister eile arvamust, et kreeklased ei näe eelarve defitsiidi vähendamisel piisavalt vaeva. Päeva teises pooles pehmendas minister veidi oma seisukohta, kinnitades et Kreeka on siiski õigel teel. Alloleval graafikul on kujutatud Kreeka valitsuse 10 aastase võlakirja tulusust.

Euroopas täna väga olulisi makrouudiseid pole. Suurbritannias avalikustatakse keskpanga viimase kohtumise protokoll ning mitmeid tööjõuturu näitajaid. USA-s oodatakse aga kell 15.30 oktoobrikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi muutust, annualiseeritud ehituslubade arvu ning alustatud ehituste arvu.

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Nelli,
Kas on midagi uut AMLN-st. Mida arvad temast?
3
Euroopas alustasid indeksid miinuspoolel ning USA futuurid tegid siis päeva põhjasid. Praeguseks on aga DAX jõudnud juba +0,25% plussi ning S&P500 indeksi futuur kauplemas 0,15% kõrgemal võrreldes eilse sulgumisega.
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Kesklinnas paistab, et on hetkel probleeme elioni sidekanalites ... ehk see jahutab pisikest paanikat kohalikul börsil.
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Tegemist üleriigilise jamaga elioni võrgus, ka muud kanalid häiritud
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Seega võib konstateerida fakti , et LHV portaal on hetkel värav maailma ?!
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Briti makro vastas suuresti ootustele, töötuabiraha taotluste arv oodatud +6K asemel negatiivne
UK Oct Jobless Claims -3.7 vs 1.3K in Sep, Oct Claimant Count Rate +4.5% vs +4.5% in Sep
Sep ILO Unemployment Rate 7.7% vs 7.7% in June (3 month data)
Sep Average Weekly Earnings +2.0% in +1.7% in Sep 2009
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to Marek9: Isiklikult pole küll midagi uut kuulnud AMLN- kohta. Bydureoni tagasilükkamine ravimiameti poolt oli suur üllatus ja nõue lisauuringuteks tähendab seda, et võimalik lahendus lükkub edasi ülejärgmisesse aastasse. Seetõttu hetkel ei oska sellest aktsiast midagi arvata.

9

Täna on J.P Morgani analüütikud väljas üsna huvitava positiivse reitingumuutusega.
Nimelt soovitab J.P Morgan osta American Axle (AXL)-i aktsiat ja tõstavad hinnasihi $12-$14 peale. Kuid kõige olulisem – analüütikud usuvad, et AXL võib olla kahe aasta pärast on AXL $18-$20 aktsia.

We upgrade AXL from Neutral to Overweight, raise Dec-2011 price target from $12 to $14, but see potential for an $18-20 stock two years from now.

1)higher-than-expected 2011 production expectations on key platforms; 2) higher-than-expected backlog, particularly in 2012; 3) stronger conviction on at least $15-20MM of annualized incremental labor savings (achievable perhaps even before Feb 2012 contract expiry); and 4) lower-than-feared future margin pressure from revised commercial terms (negotiated in 2009 but only now coming more into light).

Analüütikud põhjendavad oma ootusi järgnevalt: esiteks oodatust parem produktiivsus, teiseks oodatust parem tellimusteraamat, kolmandaks selgus ja tõenäosus tööjõu kulude vähenemine osas ja neljandaks on surve marginaalidele tulevikus kardetust siiski väiksem.

Miks see soovitus mulle meeldib:
• Tugeva Fordi (F) käitumise ja General Motors (GM) homse (kuuma) IPO taustal peaks autoosade tootmisega tegelev AXL saama kindlasti turuosaliste huvi osaliseks.
• Aktsias on üsna palju shorte sees ( 17%)
• Kahe aasta perspektiivis on $18-$20 hinnasiht hetkel siiski üle konsensuse ootuste

Mis mulle natuke ei meeldi see soovitus:
• Aktsia on alates suvest ligi 50% rallinud
• Firma teatas oma 2011-2013 aasta tellimusteraamatu prognoosi mahus $850 miljonit, mis on 20% kõrgem endisest kolme aasta jooksvast tellimusteraamatust (2010-2012). Positiivne uudis, aga aktsia reageering sellele oli sisuliselt olematu ( muidugi võib selles osaliselt süüdistada ka eilset turgu)

AXL kaupleb hetkel eelturul 2,60% rohelises, $10,60 tasemel.


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October CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.1%
October Core CPI M/M +0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.0%
October Housing Starts 519K vs 600K Briefing.com consensus; M/M change -11.7%
October Building Permits 550 K vs 570K Briefing.com consensus; M/M change +0.5%
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Täna on Credit Suisse analüütikud väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega sisuliselt kogu solarite ehk päikeseenergia sektorile.

Credit Suisse alandab „osta“ pealt „hoia“ peale GT Solar International (SOLR), Trina Solar (TSL), Renesola (SOL) ja First Solar (FSLR) ning „hoia“ pealt „müü“ peale JA solar (JASO) ja Suntech Power (STP).

Peamiseks põhjuseks on vähenev nõudlus ning ületootmise oht, mis omakorda paneb surve alla marginaalid ja hinnad.

Following our analysis to reflect recent data points on supply growth, we have grown more concerned that subsidy driven solar market demand cannot keep up with incremental solar supply coming online from mid-2011. Bottom up, new cell capacity is being added at a current monthly rate of 2GW/month in 4Q10, and just the top-20 producers aspire to increase production by 50% y/y in CY11. Top- down we continue to see only a flattish market for demand in 2011. In addition to the top-20, there are new entrants also planning to add production in 2011. As a result, factory utilizations should start falling from 1Q11, and pricing could decline faster than expected.

STP-l olid täna hommikul ka tulemused ning aktsia kaupleb hetkel 4,60% miinuses.

Suntech Power misses by $0.05, beats on revs; sees Q4 shipments +10% QoQ (8.34 )
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.18 per share, $0.05 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.23; revenues rose 57.2% year/year to $743.7 mln vs the $714 mln consensus.
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Mida arvab Nelli PIP´ist.Eile 3 pealt 3.50-le jne.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NPD -7.3% (ticking lower), CBK -6.6% , EDAP -4.9%, STP -4.1% , SINA -3.5% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank and initiated with a Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), BOBE -2.1%.

M&A news: ATI -3.7% (Allegheny Technologies to acquire Ladish for $24.00 in cash and 0.4556 of a share of ATI common stock).

Select solar names under pressure following STP results and Credit Suisse downgrades within the group: JASO -3.3% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), CSUN -2.7%, SOL -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), SOLF -2.1%, TSL -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), JKS -2.0%, FSLR -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), LDK -0.7%.

Other news: RINO -13.6% (postpones its Q3 earnings conference call; has not re-scheduled), HGSI -10.3% (falling sharply in pre-mkt after gaining in after-hours following yesterday's positive panel vote on Benlysta), IRE -6.1% (continued speculation surrounding Ireland bailout), PETD -4.7% (announced a 3 mln share common stock offering; also announcd a $100 mln convertible sr notes offering; announces proposed mergers to acquire 2005 partnerships), AVNR -3.7% (announces proposed public offering of common stock; size not announced), NOG -3.6% (announced an 8 mln share common stock offering; expects to spud ~36 net wells in 2011 with drilling capital expenditures of ~$227 mln from $132 mln for 2010), CCL -1.5% (still checking), SYNT -1.5% (prices secondary public offering of 2,610,000 shares of co's common stock by Founder and Chairman, Bharat Desai, at a price to the public of $47.50/share), .

Analyst comments: GLW -1.4% (downgraded at Oppenheimer ), NSC -1.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman).

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STV +7.2%, DGW +7.0%, CHS +3.3%, BJ +2.8%, GBG +2.6%, TGT +1.3%.

Select drug names trading modestly higher: AZN +1.1%, SNY +0.9%.

Other news: ASTM +4.9% (light volume; continue momentum), CTIC +4.3% (receives approval pediatric investigational plan from EMA), GSK +3.8% (Human Genome Sciences and GlaxoSmithKline announce vote of FDA advisory committee to recommend approval of BENLYSTA for systemic Lupus Erythematosus), CRH +3.6% (Hearing strength attributed to comments company made at conference), CMA +3.4% (increases the quarterly cash dividend for common stock to $0.10 per share and authorize purchase of 12,576,281 shares as well as outstanding warrants to purchase up to 11,479,592 shares of co's common stock), SNE +1.8% (still checking; video game sales data was released), AEZS +1.3% (presents encouraging preclinical data on two novel orally active anti-cancer compounds at major conference in Germany ), F +1.3% (higher ahead of GM IPO), POT +1.0% (announces US$2 bln share repurchase program).

Analyst comments: AXL +2.0% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), BIDU +1.1% (initiated with a Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), HON +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital; trading ex dividend), GME +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), CSX +0.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman).

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Rev Shark: Flexibility Is Key
11/17/2010 8:42 AM

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless -- like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, you put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
 -- Bruce Lee

After the worst two days of action since the current uptrend began on Sept. 1, we are due for some sort of oversold bounce. The dip-buyers have disappeared as the pullback gained momentum, but they look poised to stick a toe in and give it a try this morning.

Oversold bounces can make for some good trading opportunities, so we need to be flexible and opportunistic, but we really have to watch out for failed bounces. Downtrends are made up of a series of failed bounce attempts; every time we roll over and take out a previous low, the downtrend builds and buyers lose confidence.

Market players will set typically sell stops at recent lows, and that helps to accelerate the action to the downside if a bounce fails. But the bigger problem after action like we've had over the last eight trading days is that there are stuck bulls who are lamenting their failure to sell when we were near the highs. They want to pare back some positions and will be looking for an opportunity to do so into strength. That is what typically causes bounces to fail.

Even with the recent breakdown, the bears will remember how often over the past 18 months this market has been able to reverse sharply back up just when it looked like a downtrend was starting to really gain some energy. The bulls would make a stand and not only bounce us but keep on going once they started. If you have bet against "V"-shaped recoveries you have generally been on the wrong side of the trade.

My style of trading is to respect the trend above all else. We've definitely had a change in character this past week, and that requires that we now give the benefit of the doubt to the bears. That doesn't mean that I don't look for some upside action, but I just don't trust it very much until the character of the market shifts again.

With the GM IPO being priced tonight and conditions being somewhat oversold, I believe there is a good chance for some upside in the next few days. But the sovereign debt problem in Europe is becoming messier and China is now imposing price controls in order to cool off inflationary pressures. These issues are likely to remain headwinds that will make an immediate recovery difficult.

If you have heeded the market warning this past week and have raised cash, then you are in very good shape to deal with this market right now. The key is to stay flexible and to "be water" -- take the shape of the action in front of you. Don't worry about building up long-term positions right now. Play the bounces and work on a shopping list, but don't feel compelled to load the boat with new buys until the price action improves. It doesn't hurt to average in to some of your favorites but keep stops tight and don't be too confident that this market has found a bottom already.

This is a market environment that will reward great flexibility rather than dogmatic opinions. Stay flexible and be ready to move.

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to Helve: Aeg-ajalt tekivad turule hype-aktsiad ehk kuum raha voolab sinna sisse ja siis teeb aktsia mingi perioodi vältel läbi äkilisi üles-alla liikumisi. Mingeid uudiseid seal üldjuhul taga pole ja PIP tundub olevat üks neist.
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USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,1% kõrgemal

Euroopa turud:

Saksamaa DAX +0,38%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,58%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,10%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,43%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0,07%
Venemaa MICEX -0,08%
Poola WIG -0,68%

Aasia turud:

Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0,15%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2,02%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1,92%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2,81%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,54%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -1,62%
Tai Set 50 -0,96%
India Sensex 30 suletud

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The Fed purchased $8.15 bln of 2018-2020 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $29.91 bln
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CNBC reporting that GM IPO likely to price at $33/share
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Kuna on GM IPO?
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GM IPO on homme ja lisaks on ettevõttel plaanis kohe emiteerida ka miljardi eest võlakirju.