Eilset majadeehitamisega seotud statistikat kommenteerib AG Edwards päris hästi, oodates suuremaid hinnalangusi edaspidi:
• For the third consecutive month, single-family housing starts increased. April starts were up 1.6% fromMarch, while March starts were up a revised 1.5% from February.
• Given that the industry is beset by what is arguably its largest inventory glut ever, it is hard to interpret thepast few months’ data as anything but a negative. Moreover, excess inventory aside, the industry likelycontinues to overbuild (for more normalized conditions) given its current 1.225 million annualized start pace.Given the 6% decline in April single-family permits, the builders obviouslyare now attempting to address their prior optimism with regard to anticipated homebuyer demand for the ’07selling season.
• In sum, we expect continued home price discounting that will in all likelihood accelerate as the yearprogresses leading to further charges and book value impairments. Hopefully, at least, the arrival of fairweather will offset in part the gloom for all involved in the homebuilding industry. Investors included. Mostlikely, however, it will be a brief respite before the dog days of August bring further capitulation for theindustry as panic settles in for would be existing home sellers prior to the start of the ’08 school year.
Prudential upgrades MGM Mirage (MGM 62.37) to Overweight from Neutral and maintains their $77 tgt, based on valuation
Stifel upgrades priceline.com (PCLN 55.22) to Buy from Hold with a $67 tgt noting since reporting another outstanding quarter, priceline.com shares have sold off by 15% with lack of good reason. The firm says the upgrade is based on Europe; domestic stability and overall hotel concentration; valuation; and mgmt.
Stifel downgrades Caterpillar (CAT 75.95) to Hold from Buy following a strong October-to-May run as the stock may not participate in the growth-stock led market they expect in the next 6-12 months, exspecially if the profitable U.S market for CAT weakens further.
BofA initiates VCLK with a Buy and a $35 tgt saying believe VCLK is well positioned for continued strong secular online ad growth. The firm says the diversity of advertising channels and pricing models (C.P.M, C.P.C, C.P.A, C.P.L) successfully addresses many advertiser needs.