Börsipäev 17. jaanuar

Investeerimine
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Baltic Morning News

Boom continues. Yesterday, only one stock on Tallinn Stock Exchange closed in red, while 9 companies out of 16 reached their all-times high. The OMX Tallinn index is up 8.4% year-to-date, and 40% in a year. The other Baltic markets, Latvia and Lithuania, have performed more moderately, up 2.2% and 3.1% ytd, respectively. The valuation cannot be taken as attractive: Estonia is trading at 19.1x PE 2007E, Latvia at 21.7x, and Lithuania at 21.8x. Q4 results will determine the future direction; however, expectations are set very high.

Olympic opens new casino. Olympic Casino opened its 9th casino in the centre of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. The total investment amounted over EEK 17m (EUR 1.1m). Olympic casino now operates 81 casinos in 5 countries.

Raw milk prices go up again. According to BBN, the average raw milk price in December went up by 2.4% y-o-y. The average price for a ton of raw milk was LTL 752.3 in December 2006, up from LTL 734.5 a year ago. The annual average price for raw milk was LTL 694.8 LTL/t, corresponding to an increase of 2.8%. This is likely to affect margins of Lithuanian dairies, including our top pick Pieno Zvaigzdes (Buy). It is estimated that raw milk price makes up roughly 65% of the cost of goods sold.

Estonia drops in economic freedom index. Estonia fell from 7th to 12th in the economic freedom index 2007 compiled by the Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal. Lithuania and Latvia came in 22nd and 41st, respectively. The survey lists around 160 countries on the basis of 50 different criteria. The top three were Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia. See full table: http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index/countries.cfm

Eesti Telekom’s (Buy) software agreement. Elion, the fully owned subsidiary of Eesti Telekom, has deployed software from Motive Inc (OTC: MOTV.PK). To begin, Elion will use Motive's high-speed data product, Internet Helper, to provide automated installation and customer support for its high-speed data services. Elion will also use Motive's technology to support its recently-launched Internet Protocol television service. According to Motive, the technology will help the company reduce operational costs by providing seamless installation and self-support capabilities for subscribers and diagnostic information for customer service representatives.

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Üks täpsustus - täna on Tallinki üldkoosolek (varem olen väitnud, et avadlatakse majandustulemused) ning otsustatakse fondiemissiooni ja dividendide üle.

Teiseks, Snorase aktsiaga alustatakse kauplemist homme. Aktsia spliti määr oli 1:10-le.

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Veolia (VE), mille kohta LHV kirjutas pikemalt siin: https://www.lhv.ee/news/index.cfm?id=1049805.
Täna väljas uudisega siin: Link
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Prudential

− downgrades Cisco Systems (CSCO) from Overweight > Neutral and keeping Target unchanged at$26. Shares have benefited from a re-acceleration of sales in 2006 amid positive estimate revisionsand a rising growth outlook. We do not expect Co’s core market – switching/routing, 70% ofproduct rev – to accelerate much from current 15% growth rates, and in some areas our bias is fora deceleration. We recognize that January results are likely to be strong and shares could trade upto the $30 level, so we may be a bit early with our call.

− upgrading Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) from Neutral Weight > Overweight and raising Targetfrom $66 > $89. Our sense is business has been pretty good thus far in January. We believeAmerican Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) is running strongest, with numbers up double digits. We think ANF is going to be a great stock for 2007 and the compares look much easier beginning in February.

− Retailing/Specialty Softlines (Neutral): Our sense is business has been pretty good. PacificSunwear of California (PSUN) has been getting positive early reads on girl’s spring, their footwearcould get better in spring, a new CEO announcement is likely in the first half, they could potentiallyclose d.e.m.o., and comps get easier going forward. We continue to like Urban OutfittersInc. (URBN). Co’s division should comp soon, good early read on new Anthropologie catalog. RaisingTarget on URBN from $26 > $31.

- downgrading Caremark (CMX) from Overweight to Neutral, with a $2 special dividend and notmuch synergies with CVS expected fully valued, price target reduced from $75 to $65

- initiating coverage on Restaurants with a Neutral Weighting!-initiating Darden Restaurants (DRI) with Overweight, target $45

-initiating Morton’s Restaurant Group (MRT) with Overweight, target $22-initiating McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) with Neutral, target $43

-initiating Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) with Neutral, target $36

-initiating YUM! Brands (YUM) with Neutral, target $55

-initiating The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) with Neutral, traget $23

-initiating Wendy’s Int. (WEN) with Underweight target $26

-initiating Applebee’s Int. (APPB) with Underweight, target $20

Banc of America

- downgrades Cisco Systems (CSCO) to Neutral from Buy, due to valuation, $30 price target maintained.

Bear Stearns

- comments on LG.Philips LCD (LPL) earnings. Initial take is that shipments were significantlybelow expectations, while ASPs were flat. Q1 shipment trend is in line with firm’s estimates, albeitoff a lower base.

Goldman Sachs

- upgrades Nokia (NOK) to Buy from Neutral. Nokia is also added to the Pan-Europe ConvictionBuy List, with a $17 3-month price target. The stock is upgraded on valuation as Goldman believesNokia will good results in Q4;

- adds Monsanto (MON) to Americas Conviction Buy List. Firm cites strong US seed market, $59price target, Buy rating maintained;

- resumes Motorola (MOT) with a Neutral Rating at and a 12-month price target of $18.

JPMorgan

- upgrades FedEx (FDX) to Overweight from Neutral, believes that the parcel market is more likelyto grow than contract in 2007;

- upgrades Cephalon (CEPH) to Overweight from Neutral. Firm sees increased sales momentum,on the back of increased Provigil scripts;

- upgrades Darden Restaurants (DRI) to Overweight from Neutral. Firm cites valuation, driving bytheir expected earnings growth.

Merrill Lynch

- initiates SunPower (SPWR) with Buy and Target is $52.

Morgan Stanley

- resumes SanDisk (SNDK) with a Equal Weight rating.

Wachovia

- downgrades Intercontinental Exchange (ICE 129.19) to Market Perform from Outperform, based on valuation

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Briefing kokkuvõte INTC kvartali kohta käivatest kommentaaridest (hinnasõda AMDga ja startup kulud on marginaalidele mõjunud kehvasti ning 2007. aasta ei pruugi selles osas muutusi tuua):

Friedman Billings notes INTC posted better than expected rev, with improvement in product mix and ASPs - in striking contrast to AMD's rev miss and ASP decline - suggesting that INTC's mid-06 product launch has begun to have an impact. Firm says that investor focus will, however, be on 2007 gross margin commentary, which doesn't suggest as much improvement as most had hoped. Their Y07 EPS nonetheless rises off the report due to rev upside and expense control. Firm thinks that INTC could afford to be conservative on margin guidance, since the cost cuts allowed the co to maintain consensus EPS. Firm thinks this provides INTC with flexibility to apply price pressure if it so chooses, but also leaves INTC plenty of room for margin upside (and likewise, plenty of downside for AMD, given AMD's aggressive guidance targets)... Prudential notes INTC posted $300 mln rev upside (3%) to the midpoint of its original rev guidance, but excluding the $0.02 positive impact of one-time items, EPS missed the $0.25 consensus by $0.01. Firm thinks investors will find INTC's lack of leverage, especially off of cyclical low gross margins, increasingly disappointing, and lead them to ask whether INTC's business model challenges are merely cyclical - or secular in nature. Firm has argued that INTC's issues are secular, driven by the emergence of AMD as a legitimate competitor, with competitive products and enough capacity to affect pricing industry wide. Firm expects the industry to transition to a true duopoly whose natural equilibrium is something closer to 50% share for both. Firm believes that the process of redeveloping the business processes INTC learned over the past decade, while it was the clear and dominant PC MPU force, will continue to be challenging for the co... JMP notes that INTC gross margins of 49.6% were lower than their 51.3% est due to lower processor capacity utilization on older 90nm technology, continuing NOR flash memory losses, and NAND flash startup costs with the Micron (MU) joint venture. Firm says that on the positive front, INTC had record unit shipments and sequentially higher ASPs of processors due likely to market share gains against AMD with INTC's new Core 2 Duo architecture in mobile and server markets.

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J.P. Morgan net income rose 68% to $4.53 billion, or $1.26 a share, from $2.70 billion, or 76 cents a share, a year earlier.

Ilma ühekordsete tuludeta kasum aktsia kohta 99 senti. Keskmine prognoos oli 95 senti. Investeerimispanganduse kasum kasvas 51%, samas kui jaepanga kasum kahanes 11%...

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Edastan järgneva calli, kuna sulgesime Pro all hiljuti $18 tasemelt soetatud Cryptologicu (CRYP) positsiooni ning Rothi nägemus ühtib meiega. Usume, et hetkel on aktsia suhteliselt õiglaselt hinnatud ning ettevõte jätkuvalt huvitav - otsime võimalusi madalamatelt tasemetelt uuesti sisenemiseks.

CryptoLogic initiated with a Hold at Roth Capital- tgt $26Roth: Capital initiates CRYP with a Hold and a $26 tgt saying while they have confidence in mgt's growth strategy, shares have recently appreciated by 49% off their lows in Oct '06 and they no longer believe the stock offers compelling upside. The firm believes investors could find better entry points in '07 as they expect 1H07 to be substantially impacted from the U.S. passing the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act (loss of ~30% of rev), the loss of Betfair, increased costs related to corp relocation and operating in Ireland, opening of a new Singapore office, and increased s/w development costs related to its AsiaPac strategy.

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Tänane Insight to Wall Street ehk City Plaza Aimdused:

- Miks tõusis eile Goodrich Corp (GR) aktsia? Goodrich toodab erinevaid seadmeid lennukitööstusele, alates mootoriosadest kuni elektri-ja pidurisüsteemideni. Peamine rõhk (60-70%) on kommertsotstarbeliste lennukite suunal. Ülejäänud osas on kliendiks sõjatööstus.

- Täna hommikul teatas tulemused litograafiasektori üks suurimaid ettevõtteid ASML. Tulemused ületasid analüütikute ootusi, samuti jagas ettevõte positiivseid kommentaare tuleviku osas, eriti just uuema põlvkonna ("immersion") seadmete osas. Tulemusena kaupleb aktsia eelturul poolteist punkti kõrgemal eilsest sulgemishinnast. ASML on kõige olulisem klient ühele teisele sama sektori ettevõttele, kelle jaoks on just immersioni tulevik tähtis nende seadmete pealt saadava kõrgema marginaali tõttu.
Mis ettevõttega on tegemist ja nagu ikka peamine, kas on võimalik siit leida treid?
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GR kohta oleks pakkunud, et see liikus Parker Hannifini (PH) heade tulemuste peale (eelkõige aerospace üksuse edu), aga PH avaldas tulemused alles täna hommikul. Äkki mõni "ärijuhe" lekib jälle? :P
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ASML'i kohta .... Cymer (CYMI)?
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The Positive Vibes Can Sour in a Hurry

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/17/2007 8:15 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

"There is little difference in people, but that little difference makes a big difference. That little difference is attitude. The big difference is whether it is positive or negative."

-- W. Clement Stone

The most significant characteristic of this market for some time has been a positive and upbeat mood. Market players have been quite optimistic and haven't found all that much to worry them. Sure, we have the usual litany of bearish concerns and proclamations that we are heading for disaster, but the market has been chugging along since July with nary a pause and there continues to be little of major concern.

The lesson of a positive attitude is that it tends to feed on itself and that is really what market momentum is all about. If market players are feeling positive and inclined to find the good in everything, then it really doesn't matter what the reality may be. The negatives don't have much effect on market direction if they are simply ignored.

Unfortunately, positive thinking in the stock market doesn't last forever. It certainly can last a lot longer than we think it might, but at some point we will shift to an environment where negativity dominates and most everything will be cast in a negative light.

The great challenge of the market is finding that point where positive thinking begins to morph into negativity. Many market players make the mistake of overanticipating when things will change while others hold on forever and seem incapable of embracing the idea that conditions have changed.

As we contemplate the current market the main thing we need to keep in mind is that when market players are in a positive mood, they don't tend to give up quickly. The very nature of positive thinking is that you don't let worries and negatives affect the way you look at things. You always seek out the positives and that is exactly what has been going on this market for a while.

As positive seasonality winds down and earnings season starts, we need to watch for cracks in the mood. Earnings from Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) are going to be our first real test of how positive things are. The earnings were fine but nothing particularly special. Is the market still feeling upbeat and positive enough to shrug it off and say it doesn't care? Intel is indicated down about 90 cents so investors will have a chance to show how confident they are by snapping up shares on this dip.

We have the PPI data coming up shortly and Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) earnings tonight, which will give us further insight into how positive the market mood remains. Apple earnings are going to be particularly interesting because, unlike Intel, expectations are very high. R

Overseas markets held up fairly well in the face of the Intel report. A positive report from Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML (ASML - commentary - Cramer's Take)helped matters as did talk that the Bank of Japan may be slow to lift interest rates. Oil is trading below 51 and gold is weak.
----------------------------------------------
Capacity Utilization 81.8% vs 81.7% consensus
Industrial Production +0.4% vs +0.1% consensus
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Kolmandat päeva Californias valitsevad miinuskraadides ilmad on kaasa toonud suuri majanduslikke kahjusid. Osariigi $1 miljardi väärtuseks peetud tsitruliste(eelkõige apelsin, sidrun) saagist on hävinud ca 75%. Kui esimestel päevadel üritasid kohalikud farmeid külma tõrjuda lõkete ja suitsuga, sooja kastmisvee ning soojaõhupuhuritega, siis jätkuvate külmade ilmade tõttu ei ole nende jõupingutused vilja kandmas. Erinevatel andmetel võib üks apelsin hakata Californias maksma kuni poolteist dollarit, mis kindlasti sobib Florida apelsini kasvatajatele.

Ülespoole avnevad:

HMA +6.6% (announces $10/sh special dividend as part of a recapitalization, however, co will suspend regular dividend, will record $200 mln of additional bad debt expense), WIT +5.9% (reports DecQ, beats handily on revs), ASML +6.4% (reports Q4), TRNS +4.9% (reports Q3), LOGI +4.8% (bounces after 6% drop yesterday, co reports tomorrow in pre-mkt), HIHO +4.8% (extends yesterday's 22% move), STSI +14% (expects court rulings on Friday), GIII +4.7% (extends recent momentum, +13% in 4 days), TSS +5.5% (reports Q4), PH +4.9% (reports DecQ, beats by $0.15), GERN +4.1% (announces new benefit of its stem cell therapy), TELK +3.9% (Carl Icahn reports large stake), CHKP +1.4% (Credit Suisse upgrade), GSK +1.2%, MCD +1% (guides higher), AAPL +0.5% (TheRegister.com reports that Apple may have better legal chance at using the iPhone trademark).... Under $3: XOMA +6% (adds new programs to collaboration with SGP), GNVC +4% (to test malaria vaccine).

Allapoole avanevad:

RACK -31% (disappointing Q4 EPS guidance), INTC -4.1% (reports Q4, revs above consensus, but there are concerns about margins for 2007), OMTR -7.4% (Morgan Stanley downgrade), GPCB -7% (profit taking after 19% move yesterday), CLWT -5.6% (profit taking after 14% jump yesterday), LLTC -4% (reports DecQ, guides MarQ lower), LVLT -3.6% (Deutsche downgrades to Sell), LUV -3.1% (reports Q4, misses by $0.01), TS -3.1%, PTR -3% (extends recent weakness), Mining stocks are weak: LMC -3.5%, HMY -3%, AAUK -2.7%, GFI -2.3%, Under $3: TMTA -3%.
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Nüüd oleks ilmselt paras aeg CYMI -st esmase liikumise järel ASML peale väljuda. Ilmselt fadetakse pisut see liikumine ära nüüd. Kui stock peaks päris nulli tagasi vajuma, võib uue võimaluse pakkuda.

PS: GR anyone?
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Liiga lihtne ehk, et olla õige?
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GR kohta oskaks välja pakkuda kaks hüpoteesi:
1) General Electric võtab üle Smiths Groupi
Uudises on vihjeid kogu sektori tugevusele, lisaks on GR järgmine potentsiaalne ülevõtukandidaat?
2) UBS-i "US Aerospace & Defense Playbook "The Week Ahead" Strauss " ülevaates võis midagi olulist kirjas olla sektori või GR-i kohta (15. jaanuar avalikustati). Kuna ise sellele dokumendile ligi ei pääse, siis ei oska täpsemalt öelda.
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See 2. variant on vale, siukeses "week ahead" note's on väga harva tugevasti liigutavaid asju.
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Funil õigus. Auhinnaks Aimari pildiga t-särk :)

Goodrich (GR) tõusis selle peale, et GE ostis ära Smiths Group-i lennutööstuse äri. Hinnaks $4.8 miljardit. Valuatsiooni poole pealt (EV/EBITDA) oli see pea kolmandiku kallim kui GR-i praegune kordaja. Küll tasub välja tuua see, et ostetud üksus oli käibe osas poole väiksem GR-st. Ärilisest seisukohast on kattuvus GR-i ja GE poolt ostetud üksuse vahel päris suur, kuigi viimasel on sõjaväe osakaal kliendina GR-st suurem.

Ühesõnaga viitas GE ost sellele, et sektori ettevõtted võivad olla ebaõiglaselt madalalt hinnatud.

Collins (COL) liikus ka veidi, kuid tegemist pole siiski väga sarnase tegijaga.

Tegemist päris keerulise seosega, mille tabamiseks peaks mängus ikka väga "sees" olema.
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Või lugema, mis Merrill arvab selle kohta 16nda hommikul.

GE is paying a full multiple for Smiths
GE is paying $4.8bn cash for Smiths Aerospace, or roughly 12.0X EV/EBITDA
(2006) assuming roughly $290mm in operating profit and roughly $110mm in D&A.
GE preliminarily puts 2007 EBITDA for Smiths Aerospace at roughly $430mm,
which still suggests a relatively rich transaction value of ~11X EV/EBITDA
(forward) - note these figures have been reconciled to US GAAP on a calendar
basis. This compares to Goodrich trading at 8.5X EV/EBITDA (2006) and 7.6X
EV/EBITDA (2007).

Multiple points to valuation above our price target
Using a similar EV/EBITDA basis for Goodrich implies a valuation range of $64
(11X 2007) to $72 (12X 2006) for Goodrich (see Table 1). Our DCF analysis
points to an intrinsic value of $55 to $57 (see Table 2). We interpret the
difference between our DCF analysis and the multiples used in the Smiths
Aerospace acquisition as "deal premium", and suggests that Goodrich's
valuation could be closer to $70 if the company were to be acquired.

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Fed Beige Book: labor markets 'tightening'; moderate wage gains
Fed says US housing mkts still softening, inventories slow construction
Fed says manufacturing activity still expanding except for home building products
Fed Beige Book: U.S. Economy grows at a 'modest pace'
Fed's Beige Book says economic activity expanded at modest pace in Dec and early Jan

Siriuse ja XMSR'i languse põhjus:

SIRI -4.8% and XMSR -5.4% both getting hit on FCC headline... see 13:52 comment
FCC rules prohibit satellite radio merger, FCC's Martin says - Bloomberg

Intel on täna tulemuste järel pidevat nõrkust näidanud. Dip-buyerid on ettevaatlikud.
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Yellen says falling oil prices easing inflation pressure, could boost 2007 growth - Reuters
Yellen says economy seems generally on glide path to a soft landing; job market key - Reuters
Yellen sees fears of housing-created recession "largely allayed," consumer spendind solid
Fed's Yellen - Current policy "well positioned" to bring inflation down - Reuters
"We are within range of the desired policy setting," Yellen says

Ometi positiivset reaktsiooni hetkel ei järgne. Inflatsiooni alanemine liialt seotud nafta hinna alanemisega?
Apple tuleb tulemustega täna järelturul.