Börsipäev 17. detsember

Investeerimine
1

Tänane makrokalender jääb võrdlemisi õhukeseks, kui Euroopas jälgitakse suurem huviga Saksamaa IFO ärikliima indeksit (kl 11.00), mis jõudis eelmisel kuul rekordkõrgele tasemele (109,3 punkti) ja sestap ootab konsensus pigem näitaja püsimist samal tasemel või marginaalset alanemist. USA-s on aga ainsaks mainimist väärt raportiks novembrikuu juhtivate indikaatorite indeks, mis tuleb avaldamisele kell 17.00.
Euroopa indeksid on alustamas päeva kerge tõusuga, USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel samuti väikeses plussis.

2

Olles alles nädal tagasi pidanud silmitsi seisma Fitchi reitingulangetusega, on Iirimaa täna saamas madalama hinnangu ka Moody'selt, kes langetas reitingut koguni viie pügala võrra. Negatiivsete uudiste sajus leidub aga veidigi helgemaid teateid. Nimelt kasvas riigi SKT eelmises kvartalis 0,5% (QoQ) varasema -1,0%lise hinnangu asemel, mis on parim saavutus viimase kolme aasta jooksul. Irish Independent: "At last, our economy gets shot in the arm"

3

Bespoke on kokku pannud suuremate analüüsimajade 2011.a S&P 500 prognoosid ning seni ei arva keegi, et järgmisel aastal võiksid USA turud langusega lõpetada. Nagu ühes varasemas börsipäevas sai juba välja toodud, on kõige optimistlikuma väljavaatega väljas Deutche Bank, prognoosides üle 25%list tõusu praegustelt tasemetelt. Kõige kesisemat sooritust, ent sellegi poolest positiivset, prognoosib Credit Suisse, kes oma oma globaalses ülevaates soovitab USA turgudel kõrge valuatsiooni ja kodumaiste probleemide tõttu olla underweight.

4

Inglismaa keskpank avaldas täna iga kuue kuu tagant ilmuva Financial Stability Report'i, milles tuuakse UK pankade peamise ohuallikana välja Euroopa tihedalt seotud finantssüsteemi:

“The main credit risks to UK banks stem from the possibility of losses on lending to euro-area households and companies, should sovereign and banking concerns spill over to weaker-than-expected growth in the euro area.”

Lisaks on raporti kokkuvõttes ära toodud järgmised peamised riskid UK finantssüsteemile:

  • Contagion of sovereign concerns, interacting with and amplifying bank fragility in Europe.
  • A redistribution of capital globally, increasing the risk of overheating in some emerging market economies.
  • Low bond yields in advanced economies, which could reignite a search for yield but whose sudden reversal might lead to sharp falls in asset prices.
  • The exposure of latent distress among some borrowers internationally, including in the commercial property sector, if growth is weaker than expected or market interest rates rise by much more than anticipated.
  • Market disruption and contagion as a result of weaknesses in risk management, both in bilateral trades between market counterparties and at systemically important central counterparties.

Ja ühtlasi on ära toodud nõutavad monetaarpoliitilised meetmed, et antud riskidega tegeleda:

  • Guided by tighter Basel III standards, a gradual transition by banks to greater resilience by retaining earnings, avoiding rapid adjustment via tightening credit conditions.
  • Initiatives in securitisation markets to match better the investment requirements of long-term investors with banks’ need to lengthen the maturity of funding.
  • Measures to mitigate the risks associated with systemically important financial institutions, including capital surcharges and improved resolution arrangements in which losses are borne by existing liability holders.
  • Extension to central clearing and strengthened CCP risk management, fostered by user-ownership and ‘not-for-profit’ arrangements.
  • The BCBS review in 2011 of regulatory capital requirements for trading books to take account of liquidity risk and potential regulatory arbitrage.

Raportis on ära toodud veel graafik riikide võlatasemete tõusust viimastel aastatel ja IMFi prognoosid võlatasemete arengust aastani 2015:

5

Saksamaa IFO indeks kujunes oodatust veidi paremaks, kerkides novembri 109,3 punkti pealt 109,9 punktile, kui analüütikud olid oodanud marginaalset tõusu 109,5 punktile. Paremaks osutusid ettevõtete hinnangud jooksvale majanduskeskkonnale kui ka järgneva kuue kuu väljavaaadete osas. IFO current oli 112,9 vs prognoositud 112,5 ning IFO expectations 106,9 vs 106,0 prognoositud.

6

Siin veel mõned olulisemad punktid eelmainitud BoE Financial Stability Report'ist (Knight Capitali kokkuvõte):

  • UK banks face an even larger funding challenge in 2011; Lower interest rates could be hiding weakness.
  • The global recovery remains uneven. Risks to the downside could place further strains on balance sheets in both the public and private sectors. Sovereign and banking sector risks have re-emerged across parts of Europe and remain closely intertwined… burden of unsecured debt on households in the UK has increased.
  • Corporate and household defaults have so far been contained by temporary government support, bank forbearance and the exceptionally low level of interest rates. But balance sheets remain overextended in some sectors, so pressures would intensify if these factors were to reverse, crystallising latent credit losses.
  • Strong capital flows are a risk to emerging markets.
  • Low yields on government bonds in advanced economies may cause bubbles in Asia and junk bonds.
  • UK is only partially insulated from EU debt crisis.
  • UK banks have made important progress in improving resilience.
  • There needs to be a comprehensive solution to sovereign debt problems
  • Banks need to keep wages and dividends lower and not stop lending.
  • Banks are more worried about property prices and economic downturn than they were in May.
7
Euro on ELi kohtumisel saavutatud püsivate kriisimeetmete (ja Saksama oodatust paremate IFO indeksite) toel tegemas korraliku rallit: EURUSD +0,77% ja kaupleb 1,3345 tasemel.
8

Wells Fargo möödus turuväärtuse poolest JPMorganist kui suurimast USA pangast. Wells Fargo turuväärtus oli eile turu sulgumisel $157,6 miljardit vs JPMorgani $156,4 miljardit.

9
Eurotsooni ehitusmahud jäid oktoobris muutumatuks, olles vähenenud 1,6% septembris. Aastases lõikes langesid mahud 6,8% vs 7,7% eelmisel kuul.

Eurotsooni oktoobrikuu kaubandusbilansi ülejääk tuli oodatud €2,5 miljardi asemel €5,2 miljardit, samas kui septembri ülejääk korrigeeriti alla €2,6 miljardi peale.
10
Dollaril täna väga erisuunaline liikumine: AUDUSD -0,31% (0,9868); EURUSD +0,67% (1,3332); GBPUSD -0,02% (1,5625); NZDUSD -0,14% (0,7391); USDCAD +0,12% (1,0072); USDCHF -0,61% (0,9575); USDJPY 0,00% (83,89). Dollari indeks -0,5% 79,99 juures.
11

Kuna Nelli läks puhkusele, siis panen siia tänased huvitavamad upgrade/downgade-id, kodutöö peab igaüks ise tegema:

Upgrades:

Applied Materials (AMAT) - Barclays

MKS Instruments (MKSI) - Barclays

QLogic (QLGC) - Initiated Buy at

CitiSonic (SONC) - Cowen

Oracle (ORCL) - Target and estimates increased at Credit Suisse, Upgraded at Oppenheimer

Visa (V) - Added to short-term buy at Deutsche Bank

Blue Nile (NILE) - Estimates incresed at Goldman Sachs

Accenture (ACN) - JefferiesGlobal

Payment (GPN) - Morgan Stanley

Halliburton (HAL) - Target increased at Oppenheimer

Weatherford International (WFT) - Target increased at Oppenheimer

Southwest Air (LUV) - Soleil Securities

Downgrades:

Cymer (CYMI) - Barclays

Ball Corp (BLL) - Credit Suisse

Nasdaq OMX Group (MDAQ) - FBR Capital

Visa (V) - Removed from Conviction Buy at Goldman Sachs

CME Group (CME) - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Investment Technology Group (ITG) - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

TradeStation (TRAD) - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

CH Robinson (CHRW) - RW BairdComerica (CMA) - RW Baird

12
härrased LHV-st , mulle tundub isiklikult, et Powertrader "tembutab" täna, tahaksin esitada ühe Powertraderit puudutava küsimuse - aga ei leidnud enam ajaloost (kaks aastat tagasi minnes) sellist foorumit nagu "Powertrader" - kas Te olete selle foorumi ära kustutanud?
13
Vabandused,
leidsin Powertraderi foorumi üles "Alustajate teemast".
14

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TTWO +6.1%, ORCL +4.1% (also upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer), ACN +3.9%, ZQK +3.6% (also upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray), RIMM +2.0%.

M&A news: MI +27.8% (BMO Financial Group to Acquire Marshall & Ilsley for $7.75 in stock transaction), ICO +6.2% (ticking higher following Bloomberg.com story reporting Massey interest in the company .

Select financial related names boosted by MI/BMO news: RF +6.4%, SNV +4.8%, ZION +4.5%, KEY +2.9%, HBAN +2.4%, FITB +2.2%, STI +1.0%, C +0.5%, JPM +0.5%.

Debit/credit card related names modestly rebounding: MA +1.7%, AXP +1.7%, V +1.3%.

Select gold/mining stocks trading modestly higher: NG +1.6%, MT +1.5%, URZ +1.5%, GFI +1.4%, AEM +1.1%, AU +1.0%.

Other news: ITMN +116.9% (provides positive opinion for approval of Esbriet in EU ), NYMX +101.8% (Nymox Pharma and Recordati announce European licensing agreement for NX-1207), YRCW +7.5% (Teamsters confirm U.S. District Court ruling that ABF Freight System does not have standing to sue YRCW Worldwide), PT +2.2% and BT +1.8% (still checking), CBS +2.2% (early strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), ASML +1.7% (still checking).

15

Gapping down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SMOD -13.7%.

M&A news: BMO -3.3% (to acquire Marshall & Ilsley for $7.75 in stock transaction for aggregate amount of ~$4.1 bln in Bank of Montreal common shares).

Select overseas financial names showing weakness following Moody's downgrade of Ireland: AIB -5.4%, IRE -5.2%, RBS -4.6%, LYG -4.5%, BCS -2.4%, ING -1.5%, ITUB -1.3%, STD -1.0%, AEG -1.0%, HBC -1.0%.

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: GGB -3.2%, PZG -2.4%, MTL -1.7%, VALE -1.6%, RIO -1.4%.

Select large cap drug names under pressure: AZN -5.3% (receives Complete Response Letter from FDA For BRILINTA; also downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Natixis), GSK -1.4%, MRK -0.9%.

Other news: FSBK -13.9% (light volume; estimates a preliminary operating loss for Q4 and suspends quarterly dividend payment), VALV -6.7% (prices public offering of 1,058,646 shares of common stock at $5.50 per share), VVTV -6.0% (announces a common stock offering, pursuant to an existing shelf, for an indeterminate amount), ARR -5.3% (still checking), CALP -3.4% (filed for a $100 mln mixed shelf offering), TWO -2.5% (announces a 10 mln share common stock offering).

Analyst comments: RBCN -3.9% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), ATHN -2.8% (downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Craig Hallum), DLR -2.4% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at UBS), CENX -2.4% (initiated with a Sell at Goldman), BYD -0.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), DNDN -0.8% (initiated with a Sell at Madison Williams).

16

USA indeksite futuurid indikeerimas avanemist väikese plussiga (kuni +0,1%)

Euroopa turud:

Saksamaa DAX -0,30%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,16%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,19%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0,69%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,28%
Venemaa MICEX +0,59%
Poola WIG -0,13%

Aasia turud:

Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,07%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0,20%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0,15%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,30%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,19%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -0,44%
Tai Set 50 -0,72%
India Sensex 30 suletud

17

Rev Shark: Confounding Resiliency
12/17/2010 9:07 AM

The optimist claims we live in the best of all possible worlds, and the pessimist fears this is true.

--James Branch Cabell

This market continues to confound the pessimists who have persisted in betting against it. For a few days it looked as though stocks might be ready to correct as key leadership names struggled, and the major indices closed weakly. The market continued to hold, but the underlying action was troubling, and it suggested that stocks might finally be ready to consolidate recent gains.

However, over the past 19 months or so, this is a market that has made a habit of reversing back upward just when it has looked as though it was ready to start breaking down a little. Bears, who have kept trying to anticipate market tops, have been constantly punished for their lack of optimism. Nonetheless, they keep on trying.

For quite a while now, the single most unprofitable approach to this market has been to underestimate upside momentum. It is rather ironic that stocks have been so consistently strong in one of the worst economies of our generation, but stocks have consistently looked as though they exist in a totally different world from that of Main Street, USA. Earnings just seem to continue getting better, as Oracle (ORCL - commentary - Trade Now) and Research In Motion (RIMM - commentary - Trade Now) are demonstrating this morning, business seems to be booming at many companies. The economic problems with which we are grappling might be impacting jobs and housing, among many other things, but Corporate America is largely unperturbed.

It is understandable why bears keep trying to call tops in the market. Given the constant flow of negative economic news, who would have believed that stocks would have gone practically straight upward since the bottom in March 2009? I don't believe even the most optimistic bull would have predicted that the market would be sitting at new two-year highs just 19 months later.

But that is where we are now -- and the market, once again, is showing the surprising resilience that has been a hallmark for so long. Even though there are a slew of negative factors to consider, you would think the bears would have learned their lesson by now, and would have stopped fighting the positive action.

The key lesson is that, if you are going to fight this market, you better wait for some negative price action to occur. Even then, you better be ready to change course quite quickly if the dip-buyers go to work.

So, here we are, in a very familiar situation. The indices keep pushing higher, and stocks are technically extended, but the momentum just isn't easily dying. The bulls now have end-of-the-year seasonality in their favor, so it will become even tougher for the bears at this point.

Similar to many others, I had become a bit more cautious earlier this week, and I was caught underinvested for the move yesterday. I'll deal with that not by loading up on new positions, but by looking for short-term longs to play -- and I will try not to anticipate a market top.

We are seeing very slight weakness in the early going. The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY - commentary - Trade Now) and a number of ETFs are trading ex-dividend today, so be aware of that if you are holding positions in any of them. My stock of the week, Noranda Aluminum (NOR - commentary - Trade Now), was upgraded to buy from neutral by Goldman Sachs this morning.

At the time of publication, Rev Shark was long NOR, but positions can change at any time

18
November Leading Indicators +1.1% vs +1.2% Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.5%
19
EURUSD kukkunud täna 0,77% ja kaupleb 2. detsembri tasemel 1,3147 juures.
GBPUSD on aga kukkunud täna 1% ja kaupleb kolme kuu põhjas 1,5475 tasemel.
20
The Fed purchased $2.03 bln of 2028-2040 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $6.68 bln