Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Turg ei tahtnud eile isegi mitte põrgata. Suhteliselt halb märk oli ka see, et suured indeksid ning eriti Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) ei suutnud jälle murda viimasel ajal tehtud tippusid, vaid tulid sealt kohe alla. Ma ei hakka siinkohal kindlasti mitte tehnoloogia tippe väljakuulutama aga järjest negatiivsemana see liikumine näeb välja küll.
- Extreme Networks (EXTR) andis üllatuslikult kasumi-ja käibehoiatuse jooksvaks kvartaliks. Varasema 2-sendise EPS-i asemel loodetakse 2-6 senti kahjumit. Käibeks prognoosib firma jooksvas kvartalis $80-84 mln vs $92 konsensust. EXTR kaupleb 80x selle aast ning 40x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta. Lähimaks konkurendiks Foundry (FDRY) ning mõningal määral ka 3Com (COMS).
- Cap Gemini Ernst & Young, Euroopa suurim IT-teenuste firma andis oma kolmanda kasumihoiatuse sellel aastal. Räägib vist nii mõndagi Euroopa IT-nõudluse kohta?
- Amgen (AMGN) teatas eile õhtul oma 2004. aasta prognoosid, mis jäid natuke alla analüütikute konsensusootustele. Aktsiad kukkusid järelturul paar protsenti. Siiski tasub mainida, et maailma suurima biotehniloogiafirma aktsiad on oma liikumisega sellel aastal märkimisväärselt alla jäänud sektorile. Näiteks on Biotech HOLDRs aasta algusest ligemale 50% plussis, kuid Amgen (AMGN) vaid ligemale 20%. Amgeni aktsiad kauplevad 24-25x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta, mis on vist kõige madalam number kõigi kasumlike biotechide seas. Üks sektori kommentaator tõi võrdluseks Eli Lilly (LLY), mille aktsiad kauplevad ka 24-25x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta. LLY on suur farmaatsiafirma.
- Current accounts -$135 bln vs -$136 bln consensus
- Housing starts 2.07 mln vs 1.914 mln consensus
- CPI -0.2% vs 0.1% consensus; core CPI -0.1% vs 0.1% consensus
Turu reaktsioon positiivne, dollar liikus euro vastu roheliseks.
- Kas täna võib tulla põrkepäev? Väga tõenäoline.
- Gray B. Smith:
- RevShark:
The economic reports this morning are a bit surprising. CPI came in lower than expected, which indicates that inflation is not an issue that we need to worry about. Bonds are up sharply on the report.
Housing starts jumped sharply. Apparently consumers are buying homes rather than shopping at Target (TGT:NYSE) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) these days. The shorts have recently had a little success with their homebuilding positions, but it has not been an easy ride.
The economic data produced a slight uptick in our early indications but it certainly isn't looking very enthusiastic out there. We'll have to be very selective with our stock picking, keep stops tight and shorten time frames if we want to stay busy. If you have a longer-term time frame it's probably a good time to go finish up your holiday shopping.
There is no other way to spin it or characterize it: yesterday's market action was a disappointment for the bulls. Their hopes and expectations for a powerful rally were quickly dashed as we sold off steadily with increased vigor and volume as the day progressed. Breadth was poor and there was some very weak action in big blue-chips like Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) as well as recent momentum favorites like the Chinese industrial stocks.
Why did the day play out this way? After all, we have had generally good economic news recently in addition to the capture of Saddam. The simplest explanation is that after rallying for nine months investors have some hefty profits to protect. The big gap open on the Saddam news was tantamount to a flashing neon sign that said, "Lock in Profits!" Once the profit-taking kicked in it fed on itself as more market participants worried as they watched unbooked profits erode.
At this juncture folks are simply more worried about protecting existing gains than they are about trying to rack up some additional gains. They are thinking defensively and not offensively. Many of them feel they have already won the game this year so all they have to do now is stay conservative and run out the clock. This isn't the time to be aggressive and risk a turnover.
Will the inclination to protect this year's substantial gains pressure the market for the two weeks remaining in 2003? I'm looking for more pressure the rest of this week but I expect stabilization, especially around Christmas, as market participants start thinking about and positioning for the new year.
I do believe it is possible that we have seen the highs of the year. The year-end bounce that I'm anticipating may come from low enough levels and late enough in the year to be incapable of building new momentum. In that case I'm looking for an assault on the highs to come in early January. The bull isn't dead but he needs a rest.
For now we have to slog through a tough-looking environment. We have some very disappointing action in the retail sector as well as technology stocks. Amgen (AMGN:Nasdaq) isn't doing much for the biotechnology sector with its lackluster guidance. There are very few pockets of strength at the moment.
Overseas markets are reacting negatively to the weak action in the U.S. yesterday, with weakness across the board. The dollar continues to struggle, spot gold is up slightly and oil is down.
After the selloff yesterday the market is going to have some real difficulty regaining speculative momentum. As I mentioned yesterday morning, we have had quite a few black candlesticks lately, which indicate market failure after a decent open. Until the market starts seeing better buying interest at the close we can't be confident that upside momentum will return. Morning gaps that fail quickly undermine investor confidence.
For now, stay defensive, hedge yourself if that's your style and don't rush into buying new positions. Track your favorites but keep your powder dry and wait for the profit-taking to run its course. The market needs some time to stabilize and develop some support.
Futuurid: Naz-0.25% SPunch
