Fertilizers Steal the Show
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/17/2010 8:39 AM EDT
Creativity is the ability to introduce order into the randomness of nature.
--Eric Hoffer
We are seeing some positive action in the early going with European markets up about 1% and Potash (POT) spurning a 16%-premium takeover bid by BHP Billiton (BHP) , calling it "grossly inadequate." Also, Wal-Mart (WMT) shares are up slightly after the company reported roughly in-line earnings. Other than the news in the fertilizer sector there isn't much happening. Data on housing starts and the producer price index are coming up shortly, though, and these should generate some reaction.
The market is simply caught in the summer doldrums right now. Volume is very light, investor interest is limited, and news can easily push stocks around. The technical picture isn't particularly positive, either. Stocks are still oversold enough for a bounce, but the selling was pretty aggressive last week and it is going to take some work to repair the damage.
It can be challenging to trade a market environment like the one we are seeing now, because the action is very random. There isn't any reason to believe a bottom forming here, but stocks are oversold enough that they can easily bounce back for a while and squeeze some bears. The problem is that there just isn't any reason to believe any such move will be sustained. That isn't such a bad thing if your time frame is short, but this kind of action sure makes it tough to build and hold onto longer-term positions. The low-volume volatility can easily shake you out if you keep stops too tight.
It is always tempting to try making some big bold market calls, but there just isn't any basis for one at this time. The bulls with a fundamental bent will focus on stocks that have had good earnings and positive stories, while the fundamental bears will focus on the poor macroeconomic conditions.
I tend to primarily look at the technical conditions, and right now there is little choice but to trade in a very short-term manner and to wait for market conditions to improve. I call it "dinking around" when my focus is mainly on smaller-size trades of limited duration. You can knock out some good gains if you catch the right setups, but it is not an environment in which you will want to carry a lot of inventory.
Obviously the fertilizer sector is the one to watch today. We'll see how the market does at holding any opening strength, but either way it promises to be another random and choppy session. It isn't a time for strong convictions, but -- again -- you can play if you are willing to keep it very short-term.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PEIX +15.4%, LGL +12.0%, BSPM +7.1%, ZANE +7.1% (thinly traded, light volume), RINO +6.5%, URBN +4.6%, GFRE +3.3% (light volume), ANF +3.1% (light volume), A +3.1%, IOC +2.9% (light volume), HD +1.4%, WMT +0.9%.
M&A news: POT +30.0% (Potash announces its Board of Directors rejects BHP Billiton's unsolicited $130/share offer, says non-binding proposal as grossly inadequate),.
Select financial related names showing strength: IRE +6.1%, NBG +4.1%, ING +1.8%, BCS +1.8%, HBC +1.8%, STD +1.2%, DB +1.1%, BAC +1.1%, AIB +1.0%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +3.1%, FCX +2.9%, RTP +2.2%, TCK +1.5%, HL +1.4%, AA +1.2%.
Select potash/ag related names higher following POT news: IPI +14.2% (upgraded to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer), CNH +14.2%, MOS +13.1%, IPHS +12.0%, CAGC +11.3%, COIN +9.3%, MOO +7.7%, SQM +7.4%, CF +7.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- added to Conviction Buy List), AGU +6.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), BG +6.1%, TNH +5.5%, MON +3.9%.
Other news: PTV +12.2% (trading higher following reports that suggest Rank Group may acquire the company), ARMH +2.7% (still checking), FISV +2.3% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses portfolio positions as of June qtr end with new 4.4 mln stake in FISV), RIG +2.2% (still checking), OC +1.9% (popped after hours to $26.50 after Cramer said the stock is a bargain at current levels - CNBC), .
Analyst comments: MSFT +0.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at BGC Partners).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CPIX -13.6% (also downgraded by multiple analysts), RICK -8.7%, PWRD -8.7%, APP -8.6% (light volume).
M&A news: BHP -1.9% (Potash announces its Board of Directors rejects BHP Billiton's unsolicited $130/share offer, says non-binding proposal as grossly inadequate).
Other news: MNKD -6.0% (announces proposed offering of common stock and related share lending arrangement of $100 mln), LLY -3.0% (halts development of semagacestat for Alzheimer's disease based on preliminary results of Phase III clinical trials; sees $0.03-0.04 charge, reaffirms FY10 EPS guidance), CATM -3.0% (Cardtronics announces secondary offering of 7 mln shares of existing common stock by selling stockholders), TOO -2.5% (Announces Public Offering of 5 mln common shares), DCTH -2.1% (announces the sale of 5.19 mln shares of common stock).
Analyst comments: ATHN -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $30; based on valuation), MMM -0.6% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan).
Korralik rallipäev, S&P500 tagasi 1100 punkti juures. Samas tasub meeles pidada, et jätkuvalt on tegu suvise augustilõpuga, kus üks päev võib turg rallida ja järgmisel päeval on emotsioonid juba hoopis teistsugused.
Tahaks küsida,et miks alati on kommentaarid börsipäevale väga nadid,kui USA börs tööle hakkab.Ei ole eriti ühtegi kommi LHV tegelaste poolt,kes muidu selles saidis seletavad.Tark Investor leiab millegi pärast isegi nn.kuumal ajal mõne kommi anda,aga LHV on out,miks?Selge on see,et kõik on hõivatud oma kontode jne.teenendusega,aga ikkagi ...
No Joel,sellist kommi on ka mõttetu "linnukese"pärast teha.
Kommentaaride arv pole oluline, vaid sisu.
Näiteks 10. augustil kell 22.23 pärast Föderaalreservi intressimäära raporti avaldamist ütlesin nii: „Ilusad Q2'10 tulemused ja Fedi QE vol2 nüüd selja taga ning tõenäoliselt veidi nõrgemad makronäitajad ees ootamas. Mis võiks olla see katalüsaator, mis siis Q2'10 tulemuste ajal tugevalt tõusnud turgu võiks siis siit veel edasi lükata? Kas pole nüüd mitte karudel pisut jämedam ots käes...“ Tollal oli S&P500 futuur ca 1120 punkti, järgmise päeva hilisõhtuks kukuti 1075 peale ehk ca 4% madalamale.
Eile kell 16.21, mil USA indeksite futuurid olid ca 0.5% punases ja S&P500 futuur oli ca 1070 punkti juures, ütlesin niimoodi: „Turg hakkab tasapisi jõudma ülemüüduse tasemele, kust võib hakata nägema lühiajalisi rallisid.“ Ca 30 tundi hiljem on S&P500 indeks ca 1095-1100 punkti peal ehk ca 2.5% kõrgemal...
helve,ära enam peale võta
Alati võib lugeda ju seda mis rohkem meeldib. Loomulikult alati võiks olla rohkem aga olgem ausad, finants info on ka tasuline ja siin saab seda tasuta. Ise loen küll LHV poiste infot huviga. Ikkagi informeeritumad kui mina.
Mina tahan konkreetelt teada, mida peab ostma ja mida müüma? Muust pole mõtet rääkida :-))
eilne uudis:
Stryker eyeing Boston Sci pain unit
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stryker-eyeing-boston-sci-pain-unit-report-2010-08-17
kas targemad oskavad kommenteerida ? on siin mingit uudist / liikumisruumi ? insiderid endiselt müümas, miks ? on siit lõpuks turn-around tulemas BSX-le ?
Stryker eyeing Boston Sci pain unit
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stryker-eyeing-boston-sci-pain-unit-report-2010-08-17
kas targemad oskavad kommenteerida ? on siin mingit uudist / liikumisruumi ? insiderid endiselt müümas, miks ? on siit lõpuks turn-around tulemas BSX-le ?
Tuge see kuulujutt aktsiale kindlasti annab. Hetkel siiski liiga palju ebaselget, hind 1.4-1.5 miljardit pain management device osakonna eest. Samuti pole kummagi firma esindajad teemat kommenteerinud. Loodetavasti täna või lähipäevadel tuuakse asjasse selgust.