Aasia turud on täna saanud taaskord inspiratsiooni eilsetest liikumistest USA turgudel, kus indekseid toetas oodatust parem jaemüüginäitaja ning Warren Buffetti esinemine Californias, kus ta kinnitas, et on ostmas aktsiaid.
Tänane makro keskendub inflatsiooninäitajatele nii Ühendriikides (kl 15.30) kui ka Euroopas (kl 12.00). USA-s tuleb lisaks avaldamisele augustikuu tööstustoodangu number (kl 16.15).
Euroopa suurim rõivaste jaemüüja Inditex raporteeris täna vaatamata koduturu kehvale seisule üsna tugevatest tulemustest ning tõdes lisaks müügitrendide paranemist perioodil 1. august – 14. september. Kuue kuu kasum vähenes mullusega võrreldes -7.6% 375 miljoni euroni vs oodatud 349.5 mln. Poolaasta käive vastas prognoosidele, paranedes 9% 4.86 miljardi euroni.
Viimase kasv tuleneb tänu esimesel poolaastal avatud 166 poele, millest üle 90% avati väljaspool Hispaaniat (ca 31% tuludest) eesmärgiga diversifitseerida oma müügiplatvormi. Erilist tähelepanu on saanud just Aasia regioon, kust pärinev käibe osakaal on kasvanud aastaga 10.3%-lt 12.1%-le. Teisel poolaastal kavatsetakse avada veel üle 200 poe. Jättes välja aga laienemisest tuleneva efekti, vähenes võrreldavate poodide müük esimesel poolaastal -2%. Société Générale hindas esimese kvartali languseks -3%, mis tähendab -1%-list vähenemist teises kvartalis ning võib jooksval perioodil juba 0%-ni jõuda.
Lisaks agresiivsele müügipindade laienemisele kavatseb Inditex sügisest lansseerida Zara brändile ka online poed, piirdudes esialgu suuremate Euroopa riikidega ning liikudes hiljem kõikidele turgudele. Inditexi aktsia on tulemuste peale kerkinud 3%.
UNG-sse pikaajalisel investeerimisel kaasnevate ohtude eest on Joel korduvalt manitsenud. Bloombergi artiklist on võimalik veelkord lugeda, kuidas UNG ettevaatamatuid investoreid oma võrku meelitab.
Bloombergis on huvitav artikkel Pimco Bill Gross-i tegemistest. Suurendatud on valitsusvõlakirjade osakaalu ja vähendatud on kinnisvaraga seotud varade mahtu.
Tooks artikklist välja ühe huvitava lõigu: Cash and equivalent securities comprised negative 10 percent of holdings in August, versus negative 1 percent in July, according to the Web site. The fund can have a so-called negative position by using derivatives, futures or by shorting.
Tooks artikklist välja ühe huvitava lõigu: Cash and equivalent securities comprised negative 10 percent of holdings in August, versus negative 1 percent in July, according to the Web site. The fund can have a so-called negative position by using derivatives, futures or by shorting.
Turud jätkavad oma hingetõmbepausideta ülespoole rühkimist ning tänaseks on S&P500 liikumist kajastava SPY 3. kvartali tootlus täpselt 15% piirimail (kui tänase päeva eelturu tõus juurde arvestada, siis ollakse sellest piirist ka juba üle). Kui nüüd ajaloost otsida kahte järjestikust üle 15%lise tõusuga kvartalit, siis viimasest 15 aastast jääb igaljuhul väheks. Isegi võimsatel pullituru aastatel 1995-1999 ei suudetud sellist tulemust näidata:
algul ei saa vedama, siis pidama, ja siis jälle vedama
tundub, et hullem võibki olla ees
keegi ei õpi, ahnus lämmatab igasuguse valusa kogemuse
tundub, et hullem võibki olla ees
keegi ei õpi, ahnus lämmatab igasuguse valusa kogemuse
Sarnaseid langused nagu 2008 Q4 ja 2009 Q1 ei leia samuti lähiajaloost. Et siis ikkagi V-kujuline taastumine millesse keegi (nt. nobelist Krugman) ei usu?
Samas V-kujulise põrke jätkumisele börsidel toetajaid siiski leiab. Miljardär Fisher usub, et tõus kestab veel vähemasti 6 kuud - link siin.
Kui tõus samamoodi veel vähemasti 6 kuud kestab, oleme selleks ajaks praktiliselt krediidimulli tippude juures jälle tagasi.
Krugman ei uskunud muide tehnoloogiamulli ajal ka seda, et Nasdaq langeda võib ;-) Mina ei usu aga Nobeli komiteed pärast seda, kui nad Arafatile rahupreemia andsid. :-D
Baltic Dry Index tõusueufooriat paraku ei toeta. Kuid kuna turud tõusevad, ei ole pessimistidel selle argumendiga midagi väga peale hakata.
Toetamaks Joeli graafikut...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession.html
Kas jaemüüjatel on paremad ajad ees?
Allikas: Deutsche Bank
August Core CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.1% consensus, prior +0.1%
August CPI M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% consensus
Q2 Current Account Balance -$98.8 bln vs -$92.0 bln consensus, prior revised to -$104.5 bln vs -$101.5 bln
August CPI Y/Y -1.5% vs -1.7% consensus
August Core CPI Y/Y +1.4% vs +1.4% consensus, prior +1.5%
August CPI M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% consensus
Q2 Current Account Balance -$98.8 bln vs -$92.0 bln consensus, prior revised to -$104.5 bln vs -$101.5 bln
August CPI Y/Y -1.5% vs -1.7% consensus
August Core CPI Y/Y +1.4% vs +1.4% consensus, prior +1.5%
USA turud alustavad päeva ca 0.6% kõrgemalt. Nasdaq 100 indeksi liikumist jäljendav QQQQ on tõusnud 9 kauplemispäeva järjest ning täna ollakse siis märkimas 10. kauplemispäeva, kus kõrgemal liigutakse...
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1.03%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.51%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.58%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.54%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.71%
Venemaa MICEX +1.92%
Poola WIG +1.39%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.52%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.57%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.12%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.64%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.02%
Tai Set 50 +0.89%
India Sensex 30 +1.35%
Stick to Your Plan
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/16/2009 8:16 AM EDT
Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.
-- Oscar Wilde
It is becoming extremely difficult to offer new insights into this market. It seems like every day lately the action has been the same. The positive conditions have been unchanged for weeks now, with the only real negative being that we have steadily become more extended. The bearish fundamental arguments are sounding almost ridiculous in the face of this strength, and technical concerns like being "overbought" are just distractions that prevent us from embracing a market that doesn't rest.
My position for a while has been that we have to respect the uptrend and the momentum, no matter how unjustified we think it might be. The biggest positive this market has going for it is that there are so many frustrated folks who have never been able to fully embrace the strength. The market refused to pull back and let them in, and even the biggest bulls out there realize that new entries at this point are not particularly prudent.
So what do we do now? The most important thing is to not let frustration make you undisciplined. If your style isn't to pay up for a stock that has gone straight up for eight days in a row, don't start buying it now. If you have been bearish, set some stops and don't let losses get out of hand.
Although they're rare, some individual stocks aren't horribly extended, and market players are going to be seeking them out. However, the opportunities to put new money to work are limited; the important thing is to stay disciplined and patient. One thing I can tell you with great certainty is that the market mood will eventually shift and all these stocks that look like they will never pull back will look quite different.
Overseas markets were strong again, we have a positive open on the way and there doesn't seem to be any news causing any great worry or concerns. Gold stocks are looking particularly strong in the early going and are of particular interest to me -- they aren't quite as extended as many other things in the market.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ROG +7.4%, RMBS +4.5%, SLAB +0.8%... M&A news: OMTR +27.0% (being acquired by Adobe for $21.50 in cash)... Select financial related names showing strength: AEG +5.3%, C +4.4% (said to consider weaning from FDIC Debt Guarantees - Bloomberg.com), HBC +4.0%, GNW +2.7%, ING +2.5%, LYG +2.4% (Brussels may force Lloyds to surrender Halifax - Times of London), AIG +1.9%, UBS +1.7%, BAC +1.3%, AZ +1.3%, WFC +0.8% (CEO says Wachovia integration "is on plan" - WSJ)... Select metals/mining names trading higher: : HL +6.1%, GOLD +4.4%, HMY +4.0%, AUY +3.9%, DROOY +3.5%, RTP +3.0%, GFI +2.1%, ABX +2.0%, AU +1.7%, BBL +1.5%, VALE +1.5%, BHP +1.5%, GLD +1.0%... Select casino related names seeing early strength: LVS +2.8%, MPEL +2.7%, MGM +1.9% (MGM Mirage discussed in Business Week), WYNN +1.4%... Other news: CVM +27.9% (to Commence First Clinical Study with Hospitalized H1N1 Infected Patients), NBIX +16.3% (Secures Committed Equity Financing Facility), IVAN +14.9% (announces a major technical breakthrough in the ongoing enhancement of the company's proprietary HTL technology), ACAS +10.9% (GLW announces that it has acquired all the shares of Axygen BioScience and its subsidiaries from American Capital), FLEX +10.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), OCLS +9.5% (announces new partnership agreement with V&M Industries for Microcyn-based OTC human wound care products), AEHR +8.9% (receives follow-on order for its FOX-15 wafer-level burn-in and test system from Micronas), SVNT +7.1% (confirms early 2010 target for KRYSTEXXA resubmission), CTIC +6.5% (released updated 18-month follow-up clinical data for its phase III EXTEND trial of pixantrone), YRCW +6.1% (still checking), HEB +6.0% (Board of Directors authorizes "multimillion dollar expansion" of its FDA licensed manufacturing facilities), NTCT +5.9% (will replace Bankrate in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on Wednesday), APC +5.3% (announced a deepwater discovery at the Venus exploration well), QGEN +4.4% (still checking), AXL +3.8% (discloses it entered into a fourth extension of the Waiver and Amendment to Credit Agreement), NOK +2.0% (still checking), AAPL +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: WMG +10.1% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), TTWO +6.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), CAL +4.6% (upgraded to Buy at Argus), DRIV +4.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), AMZN +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), SNV +2.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), FO +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), GRMN +2.0% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche), OLN +1.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PGI -7.6% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland Securities), AGCO -6.5%, ADBE -4.5% (also announces deal to acquire Omniture; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), CGA -1.3%... Other news: IRE -2.7% (Ireland seeks to bring bad property loans home - WSJ), VGR -4.2% (trading ex dividend and split), CUZ -3.7% (priced its public offering of 40 mln shares of common stock at a price to the public of $7.25 per share), VICL -3.7% (still checking), MSO -2.9% (still checking), NVAX -2.9% (files for a 3.4 mln common stock offering), SSL -2.6% (still checking), VGZ -2.1% (priced its 8.8 mln share common stock offering at $2.25/share), WFSL -1.8% (priced public offering of 21 million shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $14.50 per share)... Analyst comments: MIR -3.3% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), ITT -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), MSO -2.9% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), LOGI -2.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), EM -2.1% (initiated with a Sell at Brean Murray), VZ -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), DGX -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), STM -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- DJ).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/16/2009 8:16 AM EDT
Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.
-- Oscar Wilde
It is becoming extremely difficult to offer new insights into this market. It seems like every day lately the action has been the same. The positive conditions have been unchanged for weeks now, with the only real negative being that we have steadily become more extended. The bearish fundamental arguments are sounding almost ridiculous in the face of this strength, and technical concerns like being "overbought" are just distractions that prevent us from embracing a market that doesn't rest.
My position for a while has been that we have to respect the uptrend and the momentum, no matter how unjustified we think it might be. The biggest positive this market has going for it is that there are so many frustrated folks who have never been able to fully embrace the strength. The market refused to pull back and let them in, and even the biggest bulls out there realize that new entries at this point are not particularly prudent.
So what do we do now? The most important thing is to not let frustration make you undisciplined. If your style isn't to pay up for a stock that has gone straight up for eight days in a row, don't start buying it now. If you have been bearish, set some stops and don't let losses get out of hand.
Although they're rare, some individual stocks aren't horribly extended, and market players are going to be seeking them out. However, the opportunities to put new money to work are limited; the important thing is to stay disciplined and patient. One thing I can tell you with great certainty is that the market mood will eventually shift and all these stocks that look like they will never pull back will look quite different.
Overseas markets were strong again, we have a positive open on the way and there doesn't seem to be any news causing any great worry or concerns. Gold stocks are looking particularly strong in the early going and are of particular interest to me -- they aren't quite as extended as many other things in the market.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ROG +7.4%, RMBS +4.5%, SLAB +0.8%... M&A news: OMTR +27.0% (being acquired by Adobe for $21.50 in cash)... Select financial related names showing strength: AEG +5.3%, C +4.4% (said to consider weaning from FDIC Debt Guarantees - Bloomberg.com), HBC +4.0%, GNW +2.7%, ING +2.5%, LYG +2.4% (Brussels may force Lloyds to surrender Halifax - Times of London), AIG +1.9%, UBS +1.7%, BAC +1.3%, AZ +1.3%, WFC +0.8% (CEO says Wachovia integration "is on plan" - WSJ)... Select metals/mining names trading higher: : HL +6.1%, GOLD +4.4%, HMY +4.0%, AUY +3.9%, DROOY +3.5%, RTP +3.0%, GFI +2.1%, ABX +2.0%, AU +1.7%, BBL +1.5%, VALE +1.5%, BHP +1.5%, GLD +1.0%... Select casino related names seeing early strength: LVS +2.8%, MPEL +2.7%, MGM +1.9% (MGM Mirage discussed in Business Week), WYNN +1.4%... Other news: CVM +27.9% (to Commence First Clinical Study with Hospitalized H1N1 Infected Patients), NBIX +16.3% (Secures Committed Equity Financing Facility), IVAN +14.9% (announces a major technical breakthrough in the ongoing enhancement of the company's proprietary HTL technology), ACAS +10.9% (GLW announces that it has acquired all the shares of Axygen BioScience and its subsidiaries from American Capital), FLEX +10.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), OCLS +9.5% (announces new partnership agreement with V&M Industries for Microcyn-based OTC human wound care products), AEHR +8.9% (receives follow-on order for its FOX-15 wafer-level burn-in and test system from Micronas), SVNT +7.1% (confirms early 2010 target for KRYSTEXXA resubmission), CTIC +6.5% (released updated 18-month follow-up clinical data for its phase III EXTEND trial of pixantrone), YRCW +6.1% (still checking), HEB +6.0% (Board of Directors authorizes "multimillion dollar expansion" of its FDA licensed manufacturing facilities), NTCT +5.9% (will replace Bankrate in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on Wednesday), APC +5.3% (announced a deepwater discovery at the Venus exploration well), QGEN +4.4% (still checking), AXL +3.8% (discloses it entered into a fourth extension of the Waiver and Amendment to Credit Agreement), NOK +2.0% (still checking), AAPL +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: WMG +10.1% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), TTWO +6.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), CAL +4.6% (upgraded to Buy at Argus), DRIV +4.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), AMZN +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), SNV +2.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), FO +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), GRMN +2.0% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche), OLN +1.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PGI -7.6% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland Securities), AGCO -6.5%, ADBE -4.5% (also announces deal to acquire Omniture; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), CGA -1.3%... Other news: IRE -2.7% (Ireland seeks to bring bad property loans home - WSJ), VGR -4.2% (trading ex dividend and split), CUZ -3.7% (priced its public offering of 40 mln shares of common stock at a price to the public of $7.25 per share), VICL -3.7% (still checking), MSO -2.9% (still checking), NVAX -2.9% (files for a 3.4 mln common stock offering), SSL -2.6% (still checking), VGZ -2.1% (priced its 8.8 mln share common stock offering at $2.25/share), WFSL -1.8% (priced public offering of 21 million shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $14.50 per share)... Analyst comments: MIR -3.3% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), ITT -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), MSO -2.9% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), LOGI -2.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), EM -2.1% (initiated with a Sell at Brean Murray), VZ -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), DGX -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), STM -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- DJ).
Mis FSYS´iga juhtus? jube otse alla.
Sidoti downgrade.
Maagaasi hind täna korralikult tõusmas ja FYSY aktsia pealt soovitatakse pärast võimast ralli kasumeid lukustada (väiksemad analüüsimajad on FYSY'i ostusoovitused täna langetanud samuti "neutraalse" & "hoia" peale).
Sector ETF strength & weakness @ midday
Leading Sector ETFs:
Reg banks- KRE +6.5%, Coal- KOL +4.5%, SPDRS homebuilders- XHB +4.5%, Comm banks- KBE +4.5%, Nat gas- UNG +3.5%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME +3.5%, Base metals- DBB +3.5%, iShares REITS/real estate- ICF +3.5%, IYR +3%, Steel- SLX +3%, US airlines- FAA +3%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +3%, Financials- XLF +3%, IYF +3%, Gold miners- GDX +2.5%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA +2.5%
Lagging Sector ETFs:
Ag commods- DBA -1%, Semis- SMH -.5%, Pharma HLDRS- PPH -.5%, Livestock commods- COW -.5%