Bespoke on asetanud QE2 ja Euroopa võlaprobleemid korraks kõrvale ning vaatamas dollari liikumist läbi tehnilise pilgu ning tõdeb, et praegune põrge on toonud dollari kanalist väljamurdmisele väga lähedale.
General Motors teatas firma kasvanud hinnanguliselt Hinnavahemik pakkumine 365000000 lihtaktsiaid tuleb müüa selle teatavate aktsionäride kuni $ 32,00 kuni 33,00 $ aktsia kohta varem hinnatud hinnavahemik $ 26,00 kuni 29,00 $ aktsia kohta. Ettevõte teatas, et ta on kasvanud kavandatud suurust oma Series B kohustuslik kabriolett junior eelisaktsiatega pakub alates $ 3 miljardi $ 4000000000, mis koosneb 80 miljonit aktsiat, välja arvatud summa, mis andjad on võimalus osta katmiseks ülejaotamist , kui üldse.
to HEINZ,
General Motors on tõenäoliselt tänu oodatust suuremale nõudlusele tõstmas oma aktsiate IPO hinda 26-29 dollarilt 32-33 dollari vahemikku. Eelisaktsiate pakkumist suurendati 3 miljardi dollari pealt 4 miljardile.
General Motors on tõenäoliselt tänu oodatust suuremale nõudlusele tõstmas oma aktsiate IPO hinda 26-29 dollarilt 32-33 dollari vahemikku. Eelisaktsiate pakkumist suurendati 3 miljardi dollari pealt 4 miljardile.
to Erko
Tore lugu on see, et kusagil poolteist aastat tagasi läks teadaolevalt GM pankrotti. Kas oskad vastata mis sai nende aktsionäride aktsiatest kes sellel ajal neid omasid ?
Tore lugu on see, et kusagil poolteist aastat tagasi läks teadaolevalt GM pankrotti. Kas oskad vastata mis sai nende aktsionäride aktsiatest kes sellel ajal neid omasid ?
Morgan Stanley analüütikud on täna väljas teisegi väga huvitava analüüsiga. Nimelt arutleb sama analüüsimeeskond, kes on katavad ka Ford (F)-i aktsiat, täna selle üle, kas BorgWarner (BWA) võiks olla $100 aktsia.
Etteruttavalt peab ütlema, et alljärgnev jutt on pigem informatiivne ning ei ole mõeldud kauplemisideena, aga tulevikku silmas pidades võiks aktsiat enda jaoks kindlasti radaril hoida.
Morgan Stanley analüütikud Ravi Shanker, Adam Jones ja Yejay Ying, kes on teinud väga head tööd F-i katmisel, lisavad oma Best Ideas nimekirja ka BorgWarneri aktsia ning usuvad, et 2015.aastaks võiks BWA maksta $100.
Olgu öeldud, et hetkel on Morgan Stanley`l aktsiale „osta“ soovitus koos $70 hinnasihiga.
Analüütikud on veendunud, et turg alahindab firma kasvupotentsiaali järgmistes valdkondades:
Commercial Vehicles are rarely associated with BWA, despite being ~15% of revenues. The cyclical recovery in 2011/12 (39% CAGR in NA/Eu) and new fuel economy regs , could make CV a material driver of earnings.
Tarbeautosid seostatakse BWA-ga harva, vaatamata sellele, et moodustavad 15% käibest. Võttes arvesse üldist taastumist ja uusi kütusesäästu regulatsioone, peaks BWA sealt tulevikus kindlasti kasu lõikama.
China exposure could double in 3 yrs as it is barely 6% of revenues today but almost 20% of the backlog as BWA continues to penetrate the market and gain share. China is by far the largest commercial vehicle market in the world and BWA is targeting this market with turbochargers. BWA claims to be the #1 turbo supplier for China passenger cars today, but only has about 5-6% of the CV market. Emissions/EGR systems is also a growth opportunity there.
Hiinas võiks turuosa kolme aasta jooksul kahekordistuda, sest Hiina on üks suurimad autoturge maailmas ja BWA kavatseb turgu vallutada oma turboseadmetega ( turbocharger).
OEMs must improve fuel economy by 20% by 2016 and potentially a further 75% by 2025. We see turbo / DCT as the closest thing the industry has to a silver bullet for compliance. BWA is also more than just turbo, with demand for its other emissions / fuel-economy related tech growing just as quickly.
Seoses kasvuhoonegaaside vähendamise kavaga on USA valitsus pannud paika ka uued regulatsioonid kütusesäästmise osas. BWA on oma olemasolevate ja ka arendamisel kütuse säästmise seadmetega kindlasti üks neist, kes nimetatud regulatsioonidest kasu lõikavad.
Ilmselt on kõik lugejad kursis sellega, mis juhtus F-aktsiaga peale seda, kui sama Morgan Stanley analüüsimeeskond seda katma hakkas ( Ford on ka BWA suuruselt teine klient). Muu hulgas on see ka üks põhjustest, miks mulle see tees meeldib. Igal juhul tasub BWA tegemisi edaspidi jälgida ning aktsial silma peal hoida.
October Industrial Production 0.0% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus, prior -0.2%; Capacity Utilization 74.8% vs 74.9% Briefing.com consensus, prior 74.8%
to HEINZ
põhimõtteliselt jäid need aktsionärid tühjade pihkudega. Mäletatavasti jagunes GM kaheks: uus GM (mille aktsiaid hakatakse börsil noteerima) ning vanaks GM-iks (ametliku nimega Motors Liquidation Company). GM endiste aktsionäride saatus kulgeb edasi vana GM-ga, mida läbi pankrotikohtu livideeritakse (uue GM-ga pole neil enam mingit pistmist). Vana GM-i aktsia kaupleb pink sheetil sümboli all MTLQQ.
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SUPR -13.4% (ticking lower), NLST -12.9%, CNAM -12.5%, PWRD -9.1% (also downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), CWS -8.4%, CPSL -7.7% (light volume), AXAS -5.5%, JWN -3.1%, TJX -1.5%, MCP -1.3%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: RF -3.9% (announced that William C. Wells II resigned as the company's Chief Risk Officer), LYG -2.5%, HBC -2.5%, IBN -1.6%, CS -1.1%, BCS -1.0%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLT -4.6%, PAL -3.8%, RIO -2.9%, MT -2.5%, SLW -2.4%, SVM -2.3%, NGD -2.1%, GSS -1.8%, BBL -1.6%, GOLD -1.0%.
Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: NOV -2.1%, ATPG -1.8%, ATO -1.7%, HAL -1.5%, SLB -1.3%, TOT -1.3%, SU -1.2%, BP -1.1%, COP -0.9%.
Other news: MELA -39.6% (sinking in premarket trade on FDA staff report), RGS -10.4% (weakness attributed to negative speculation related to bids for the company), NNA -5.2% (prices its follow-on public offering of 6,500,000 shares of common stock at $5.50 per share), RNOW -4.7% (Announces Proposed Private Offering of $125 Million in Convertible Senior Notes), LLNW -4.0% (filed for a $150 mln mixed shelf offering), OMPI -3.7% (light volume; announces agreement to repurchase $35 million of its shares and commencement of a secondary offering by selling stockholders), EPB -3.6% (plans to sell 10 mln common units in an underwritten public offering ), PAA -2.5% (announced that it has commenced a public offering for 4 mln of its common units), TRW -2.3% (announces commencement of 10 mln shares secondary common stock offering), RSG -1.9% (Warren Buffet discloses he liquidated ~10.8 mln share position in Q3), IRM -1.3% (Warren Buffet discloses he liquidated 8.0 mln share position in Q3), COF -0.6% (Paulson & Co cuts stake-CNBC).
Analyst comments: GMXR -4.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), JOYG -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), PSO -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas).
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SKBI +32.1%, YONG +7.9%, GFRE +7.2%, URBN +6.3%, DKS +5.3%, ZOOM +4.3%, INTX +3.0% (light volume), PRGN +1.3%, WMT +1.0%.
Other news: ONP +7.6% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 2 point drop), CEVA +4.6% (will replace Phoenix Technologies in S&P 600 index), STRI +4.3% (will replace Keithley Instruments in the S&P 600), BR +3.7% (Greenlight Capital disclosed stake), AMRN +2.8% (scheduled to present at Lazard conf today), MOTR +2.6% (Carl Icahn discloses new 4.4 mln share stake), POWI +2.0% (will replace The Gymboree in the S&P 600 index), MAT +1.9% (announces additional $500 mln share repurchase authorization; increase in 2010 annual dividend and switch from annual to quarterly dividend beginning in 2011; also Icahn disclosed new stake), BK +1.3% (Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway discloses new 2 mln share stake), BEZ +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: WX +3.6% (ticking higher; upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), BRCD +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities).
Rev Shark: Let It Play Out
11/16/2010 8:27 AM
If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to serve as a horrible warning.
-- Catherine Aird
We can't say we didn't have a warning. The market has been struggling for a week now and the anemic bounce attempt yesterday was a clear indication that the dip-buyers are finally losing some of their confidence. If you ignored the warning signs and loaded up on the pullback, you are going to suffer some pain this morning.
As I've been writing, the key to the market trend is dip-buying. When we first had some weakness early last week, the dip-buyers were aggressive and we recovered fairly well. But on Friday they tried it again and ended up trapped as we rolled over and closed poorly. Yesterday the dip-buyers tried it yet again and had us at the highs at midday, but they faltered and we once again closed weak.
What is interesting about the dip-buying psychology is that when it is working, the market will barely pull back, as the buyers are so anxious to jump in on weakness, but when we fail to bounce back a few times, dip-buying suddenly loses it appeal. All those buyers who are so anxious to jump in on a slight pullback suddenly run for safety as we roll over and don't find much support.
Over the past 18 months, this market has come back from the edge of a breakdown numerous times. Just when it looks like we are really going to fall apart, we'll find support and before you know it the bears are being squeezed once again.
Unfortunately it is just too dangerous to anticipate a quick recovery when the market is acting the way it has over the past week. While some bounces are very likely, we have to assume that they will fail and won't last for long. The burden of proof has shifted to the bulls now, and they need to show us that they are finding support and can hold on to gains.
What is bothering the market right now are concerns that China is going to take some serious steps to cool off its economy, concerns about Irish sovereign debt and loss of confidence that "QE 2" can overcome all our problems and drive us up endlessly. For a while, all the news was good -- especially during earnings season -- but now we are lacking positive catalysts and market players are focusing on the negatives.
There isn't much to do at this point other than to stay out of the way and let the correction play out. It is a good time to prepare shopping lists and play very quick bounces, if you are so inclined. But the most important thing is to stay patient and protect capital until the action improves. The same folks who were looking for the market to top out for the past month or so are going to start looking for us to turn back up. Let them play their game while we sit back and wait for the market to prove itself again. There is no hurry.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0,74%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1,38%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -1,34%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0,90%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1,25%
Venemaa MICEX -1,41%
Poola WIG -1,61%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,31%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1,39%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3,98%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3,97%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,35%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 +0,26%
Tai Set 50 -2,96%
India Sensex 30 -2,19%
to Erko
Tänud info eest. Ühesõnaga endistele aktsionäridele tehti kõigile 1:0 ära. Ja kogu varad (tehased, seadmed) jäid uue GM valdustesse. Tundub naljakana, aga kas see ei lõhna mitte suure kohtu geissi järgi.
Kui firma väärtus oli enne praktiliselt 0 siis nüüd tullakse uuesti turule avaliku emissiooniga. Tundub täieliku investorite lollitamisena.
Õiglane oleks igale endisele GM aktsionärile anda proportsioonis ka uue firma aktsiaid. Aga me ju elame vabas ja õiglases maailmas ja eks targemad teavad.
(Ise ei omanud ega oma GM aktsiaid)
Tänud info eest. Ühesõnaga endistele aktsionäridele tehti kõigile 1:0 ära. Ja kogu varad (tehased, seadmed) jäid uue GM valdustesse. Tundub naljakana, aga kas see ei lõhna mitte suure kohtu geissi järgi.
Kui firma väärtus oli enne praktiliselt 0 siis nüüd tullakse uuesti turule avaliku emissiooniga. Tundub täieliku investorite lollitamisena.
Õiglane oleks igale endisele GM aktsionärile anda proportsioonis ka uue firma aktsiaid. Aga me ju elame vabas ja õiglases maailmas ja eks targemad teavad.
(Ise ei omanud ega oma GM aktsiaid)
Austrian Finance Ministry says from data on the table right now that the Greeks may not be fulfilling requirements fully; expect Greek finance minister to provide and explanation later tonight as to what is going on - CNBC
The Fed purchased $5.42 bln of 2012/2013 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $33.53 bln
Follow Up: Irish PM Cowen says they need to reduce deficit by 2-3% of GDP by 2014; says talking about their situation to Euro Zone ministers - CNBC
Says they have made no application for external support; there has been much misleading information in the market. Says turbulence in markets has been about issues beyond Ireland.
Cowen kinnitab, et ei ole abi palunud ja kuulujutte ei tasu uskuda. Lisab ka, et turgude viimase aja närvilisus ei tulene Iirimaa probleemidest.
Says they have made no application for external support; there has been much misleading information in the market. Says turbulence in markets has been about issues beyond Ireland.
Cowen kinnitab, et ei ole abi palunud ja kuulujutte ei tasu uskuda. Lisab ka, et turgude viimase aja närvilisus ei tulene Iirimaa probleemidest.
JOYG kauplemisideena täna ennast õigustas. Eelturul müüdi aktsia küll liigselt alla, aga avanemisel pakkus aktsia üsna atraktiivset sisenemiskohta. Kes $76,20-$76,40 kandist endale lühikese positsiooni võttis, siis $0,50-ne kasum tuli üsna lihtsalt. Kes kannatlikum oli, võis ka ühe punkti laualt ära võtta. Kindlasti aitas kaasa ka turg, mis negatiivsele reitingumuutusele võimu juurde andis.
Nelli. Kauplemisideed on väga head olnud. Aga need kes neid ideid kasutavad peavad ka arvestama, et alla 50K $ ei ole mõtet näppida. Kui ma teenin tehinguga alla 400 $ kasumit siis ma pean seda viletsaks tehinguks.
Nelli, oletame et ma oleksin turu avanedes (või eeltutul) JOYG shortinud. Kas distsipliini ja idealistliku kauplemisstrateegia kohaselt oleks olnud õige positsioon likvideerida, sest sinu pakutud tees ju tegelikult ei töötanud? Avamishinnaga võrreldes tulnud täiendav langus on minu arvates tingitud pigem turu nõrkusest. Milline on kommentaaride/reitingu muutuste põhjal kauplemisel keskmine periood, mille jooksul saab öelda, et trade ei tööta?
Kui oleks JOYG kauplemisideega kaasa läinud ja võtnud short'i $76,20-$76,40 kandis ning realiseerinud ideaalis $1,00 kasumiga (per aktsia) ja võtnuks tehingu summaks ca $2500, kui palju olnuks siis teenustasud ja kasum LHV traderit kasutades?
Uued ideed iseenesest väga teretulnud. Loen huviga.
Uued ideed iseenesest väga teretulnud. Loen huviga.
Sellest piisab teenustasude maksmiseks, aga kui aktsiat oleks shortida tahtnud, pidanuks suurema summaga lähenema.
Dynegy (DYN): Blackstone (BX) to increase Dynegy offer to $5.00/share from $4.50/share