Suured Kanada pangad üritavad koos päästa krediidiprobleeme. See on juba peaaegu sama hea kui Fedi statement probleemide tõsidusest ja intresside kärpimisest. Asi muutub aina huvitavamaks ning futuurid on sellest ka tuge saanud.
Briefing.com: A number of major players in Canada's financial markets met today in Montral to work out a solution to the liquidity problem affecting the third party structured finance asset-backed commercial paper ("Third Party ABCP") market in Canada. The following institutions were present: ABN AMRO, Barclays Capital, Caisse de dpt et placement du Qubec, Desjardins Group, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, PSP Investments, Merrill Lynch, National Bank and UBS
Tegelikult ka see 3-päevane oli vist ainult reedel, ehk siis nädalavahetuse üleelamiseks. Kui äripäevades mõelda, siis oli ka see 1-päevane. Nii et 1day vs 14 day suhe tundub veel halvem.
Infoks niipalju, et oleme sulgemas oma QID positsiooni (vaatamata oma negatiivsele nägemusele 2007. aasta lõpuks). Negatiivsus turul on liiga suureks läinud ning ralli tõenäosus on läinud suuremaks kui edasine langus lähiajal. Täpsemad kommentaarid Pro all.
Fear of the Unknown Keeps Traders Wary By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 8/16/2007 8:18 AM EDT
We tend not to choose the unknown, which might be a shock or a disappointment or simply a little difficult to cope with. And yet it is the unknown, with all its disappointments and surprises, that is the most enriching. -- Anne Morrow Lindbergh
The massive market meltdown we are currently undergoing is due to one thing: fear of the unknown. We simply don't know the extent of the debt and credit issues out there and what the potential fallout will eventually be. Will lenders like Countrywide (CFC) go under? Will things get bad enough that the Fed will do something even as inflation remains a problem? Will the housing market implode further as the mortgage market comes to a complete standstill? How much will this affect the economy? And so on and so on.
We just don't know the answers to so many questions right now, so the logical move for investors is to raise cash and sit on the sidelines until they can better understand what is happening. There is nothing the market hates more than uncertainty, and we have piles of it right now.
What is even more disheartening is that gaining some level of clarity about the extent of the problems is not going to be easy. We keep hearing from folks who want to tell us that the worst is over, that the problems are contained and that the economy is still strong. They have no solid proof of this and are being proved wrong with each piece of news that hits the wires, but that doesn't stop the pundits who think that hoping, wishing and optimism when you are losing money constitutes good insight.
If you are holding any long positions right now you are very likely feeling some pain. The big dilemma is that it feels like we are down so far already that it is useless to raise cash at this point. Maybe, however it can be quite helpful emotionally and mentally to do a little selling of badly broken stocks anyway.
Raising a little cash even this late into a meltdown can help you feel in better control of the situation. Many of the stocks that you are holding for losses are not going to come back very quickly and you may find that you can deploy your cash elsewhere and recoup losses faster.
The most common way that investors deal with fear is to freeze. They sit there and do nothing. In many cases they would be far better off if they panicked a bit and took some action. Those who panic sold when the market cracked in 2000 where far better off than those who simply sat there.
With another extremely ugly open this morning, the market is becoming more and more compressed and likely to produce a big bounce. All it needs is some sort of catalyst. Unfortunately, last night, Fed member William Poole threw cold water on the idea that the Fed was going to be that catalyst. There was some chatter out there that a Fed rate cut would come soon but the action in the market this morning shows that that idea has now been abandoned.
It is extremely important that you not be sucked into thinking the worst is over when we finally see a good bounce. A market that has broken down like this has a ton of trapped longs who will be happy to escape if they can cut their losses to some extent. In addition, the long-suffering bears are now in position to press their bets and they will be quick to reload on strength.
As I discussed last night, I'm not looking for the market to bottom out in blaze of panic. I believe the eventual bottom will come with a whimper only after the folks who are looking for a quick recovery have been adequately discouraged.
Eventually there are going to be some great opportunities, so stay patient and optimistic. The key is to stay in the game for the long run, so make sure you have some cash on hand. ---------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: NTAP +6.6%... Other news: KFN +15.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings), VMW +3.4% (continued momentum from Tuesday's IPO).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: CHL -2.5%, AMGN -2.5% (announces restructuring, lowers guidance)... Gapping down on news: CFC -5.2% (co supplemented its funding liquidity position by drawing on an $11.5 bln credit facility), CHTR -5.1% (coverage resumed at BofA with a Neutral), BHP -3.7% & RTP -3.4% (stocks trade lower as oil and metal prices drop)... General market weakness leading to many stocks gapping down on no news: LFC -4.0%, BEAS -3.1%, CSG -3.1%, CROX -2.7%, FCX -2.5%, ABB -2.4%, ALU -2.4%.
Pro all mainitud idee "julgetele" QXM (Qiao Xing Mobile) tuli välja päris heade tulemustega. Mobiile müüdi II kvartalis üle miljoni (+114% yoy), revenue 111 milj. (+33%), gross margin 33,5%. Aktsia eelturul ca. +9%.
lauris71, tegemist on päris huvitava firmaga meie arvates, mistõttu ka selle välja tõime. Tasub radaril hoida - omas piirkonnas tegija ning tunneb turgu ilmselt natukene paremini kui firmad väljastpoolt seda piirkonda. Lisaks - tooted ei ole sugugi kehvad.
Laenudel määrati väljastamisel fikseeritud intressimäära ja periood, mil see kehtib (tavaliselt kaks kuni kolm aastat). Seejärel intress tõuseb. Tüüpiline oli näiteks 2005. aastal väljastatud laen, mille kaks aastat oli intress 7%. Pärast selle perioodi möödumist tõuseb intress 10% tasemele.
About 2 million discounts will end during the next 18 months, the council said. The wave of refinancing threatens to slow consumer spending, which has boosted U.K. economic growth almost every quarter for the past decade, and may hurt stocks of retailers such as Tesco Plc and Marks & Spencer Group Plc.
``We have a fixed-rate squeeze coming,'' said Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas in London. ``Consumers are going to bear the brunt of a slowdown.''
Probleem on siin laenude refinantseerimises. Väljastati ju need lootuses, et majade hinnad tõusevad. Umbes kolmveerand kõigist sellistest laenudest väljastati Kalifornias, Floridas, Nevadas, Arizonas ja Massachusetsis. Need on praegu aga ühed kõige nõrgemad turud.
Need peaks olema vist need 2/28 laenud - 30.a. laenud, mille puhul 2 esimest aastat fikseeritud intress ning pärast seda saad laenu refinantseerida. Kui turg on hea, on see väga hea mõte, kui turg halb, siis võidakse paljudel maja käest ära võtta. Cramer oli vist see kes ütles, et 2/28 mehed jäävad kõik majades ilma.
Bear Stearns (BSC) on enamuse aja püsinud rohelises täna. Märgiks ära ka, et IWM on suhteliselt nõrgas miinuses.
Samuti täna huvitavad kommentaarid FNDT kohta. D.A. Davidson alustas firma katmist hinnasihiga $20 ja osta reitinguga:
D.A.Davidson initiated FNDT with a Buy and $20 tgt. Firm says accelerating growth and increasing complexity in electronic transactions are bogging down often-antiquated payment infrastructures and driving financial institutions to seek FNDT's expertise and payment processing applications. With a promising pipeline potentially providing upside, firm is modeling the co to grow revs organically ~10% and earnings ~20% over the next few years, while investing for growth.
Täpselt need samad ja Cramer siingi foorumist läbi käinud videos ütles tõesti,et "teaser" intressimääraga laene võtnud inimesed jäävad kõik oma majadest ilma. Optimistid usuvad samal ajal, et see jääb ehk poole miljoni ümbrusesse.
kristjan, meil sama lugu QID-ga, kuid ma ei saa öelda, et see kõige parem valik meil shortimiseks oli. Tehnoloogia ootamatult tugev olnud ning tundus natuke vale poni ratsutamiseks. Kuid turu shortimiseks ootame samuti paremaid tasemeid.
Realmoneys tuuakse päris hea point välja. Praegune ja ka eelnev Fedi kamp oma silmipimestavalt positiivsete kommentaaridega on kaotanud paljude valijate silmis arvatavasti usaldusväärsuse ning seetõttu ulatatakse 2008. aasta valimisvõit ilmselt demokraatidele hõbekandikul kätte.
Mis turgu puudutab, siis tegemist on tõelise paanikaga. Lühikesed on katma asunud ning mitmed indeksid tugevalt ülemüüdud.
Sellest 2/28 laenudest veel - nagu Rometi toodud tabel näitab, on 2008 alguses päris suurtes summades vaja neid "2/28 põrgu kasvandikke" vaja refinantseerida. Ja ega inimesed vaatavad ilmselt natuke ettepoole ka - seega kui sellele lisaks üldist kinnisvara jahtumist vaadata, siis ma küll ei näe, kuidas USA tarbija suudaks oma tugevust säilitada. Nii mõnedki ameeriklased peavad (frii)kartulikoori sööma mõnda aega ja seega tarbimine peaks kindlasti kannatama. Ka LHV Pro all välja toodud jaemüüjate short on ka praegustelt tasemetelt mu arust hea mõte (kuid pigem võiks oodata sisenemiseks väikest põrget).
